***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Ag with kids
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In reply to 74OA • 1:49p, 8/8/26
74OA said:
F-16s are carrying an increasingly heavy load defending Ukraine. I wonder how long they can keep up the pace before readiness becomes an issue.

"Ukrainian F-16 pilots have already set records that illustrate just how far the aircraft's role in cruise missile defense has advanced. In December 2024, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot shot down six Russian cruise missiles in a single sortie, using only four air-to-air missiles and the jet's onboard cannon for the final two kills, a feat Ukraine's Air Force described at the time as the first instance anywhere in the world of a fighter destroying that many cruise missiles in one engagement."

VIPER

Too close for missiles, switching to guns...
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Ag with kids
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:51p, 8/8/26
PJYoung said:



JFC those SAMs SUCK. Do they not have any terminal phase guidance?
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PJYoung
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1:51p, 8/8/26
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Ag with kids
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In reply to PJYoung • 1:56p, 8/8/26
PJYoung said:

You can turn off signatures, btw
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:09p, 8/8/26
Rossticus said:
They're probing to see how far they can go, and slowly creating acclimation/habituation/acceptance by euros. Because they know that up to a mass casualty event, nobody will engage out of fear of "escalation". They also know that the US won't get involved regardless of what they do. So, for them, the risk is exceedingly low and very much worth it.

This. But there's another available response option.

"Given that these episodes keep occurring, diplomatic demarches are clearly not cutting it. But how does NATO respond unambiguously without climbing the escalation ladder? The right answer is to take the leash off Ukraine.

Visiting Washington last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked President Donald Trump to persuade Elon Musk to lift restrictions on using Starlink, SpaceX's satellite communications system, to help guide strikes inside Russia. With the global supply of interceptors running dangerously low, Ukraine needs to be able to hit Russian launchers before they fire their ballistic missiles.

Russia has always probed its adversaries. Every "stray" drone or missile that goes unanswered encourages greater risk-taking. Doing nothing, paradoxically, is the more dangerous option."

WaPo: PUSH BACK
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Rossticus
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11:11a, 8/9/26
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PJYoung
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:42a, 8/9/26
Rossticus said:


And there's a drone for all of them.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:14p, 8/9/26
Rossticus said:

troops?

They misspelled bullet-catchers.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Ag with kids • 1:07p, 8/9/26
More X posts beginning to surface, seeming to validate Russia importing North Korean women as laborers to replace their plummeting workforce as well. So that post from a while back may not have been fake news after all.

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PJYoung
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1:15p, 8/9/26
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Rossticus
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1:21p, 8/9/26
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2wealfth Man
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2:30p, 8/9/26
The Russian citizens evidently hate having the NORKS around from what I have heard of the first go around. This is essentially the modern version of slavery
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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to PJYoung • 2:33p, 8/9/26
PJYoung said:

So nothing.
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Gilligan
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 2:34p, 8/9/26
2wealfth Man said:
The Russian citizens evidently hate having the NORKS around from what I have heard of the first go around. This is essentially the modern version of slavery


I'd wager the NORKS love the opportunity. I wonder how tight the leash is on them from running away?
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74OA
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3:12p, 8/9/26


More detailed COVERAGE.
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eric76
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In reply to Ag with kids • 3:31p, 8/9/26
Ag with kids said:
Rossticus said:

troops?

They misspelled bullet-catchers.

Drone-fodder.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Gilligan • 3:49p, 8/9/26
Gilligan said:
2wealfth Man said:
The Russian citizens evidently hate having the NORKS around from what I have heard of the first go around. This is essentially the modern version of slavery


I'd wager the NORKS love the opportunity. I wonder how tight the leash is on them from running away?


Very. They're kept under tight surveillance, their passports are confiscated and held, and a significant portion of their presumed wages are withheld as insurance (doubt they ever actually see that portion).
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Blackbeard94
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:01p, 8/9/26
Don't forget family, if you try to split, your mom, dad and siblings all go off to the gulag
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eric76
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In reply to Blackbeard94 • 4:05p, 8/9/26
Blackbeard94 said:
Don't forget family, if you try to split, your mom, dad and siblings all go off to the gulag

Are we speaking of North Korea? I think it goes for three generations there.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:32p, 8/9/26
Rossticus said:
They're probing to see how far they can go, and slowly creating acclimation/habituation/acceptance by euros. Because they know that up to a mass casualty event, nobody will engage out of fear of "escalation". They also know that the US won't get involved regardless of what they do. So, for them, the risk is exceedingly low and very much worth it.


I don't see them provoking Poland or CR, but part of me hopes they do.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Gilligan
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In reply to eric76 • 5:30p, 8/9/26
eric76 said:
Blackbeard94 said:
Don't forget family, if you try to split, your mom, dad and siblings all go off to the gulag

Are we speaking of North Korea? I think it goes for three generations there.


What if you don't like them anyway? Asking for a friend...
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Waffledynamics
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8:03p, 8/9/26
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GAC06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:34p, 8/9/26
If they can really produce a ballistic missile interceptor, it would be pretty impressive
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:40p, 8/9/26
"Necessity is the mother of invention".

I hope.
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Rossticus
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1:10p, 8/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:12p, 8/10/26
Further indication that there will be no "deal" nor substantive negotiation to end this.

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Rossticus
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1:15p, 8/10/26
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.

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EastSideAg2002
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:24p, 8/10/26
Rossticus said:
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.


This sounds pretty plausible. They are fighting for survival, MIC is fighting for profits.
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txags92
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 1:27p, 8/10/26
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.


This sounds pretty plausible. They are fighting for survival, MIC is fighting for profits.

If SLS had been given veto authority over letting SpaceX build rockets, they would have done the same. Nightmare scenario for the MIC to have somebody show how much faster and cheaper their products can be made.
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JFABNRGR
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3:23p, 8/10/26
If the Ukes have the money they would be better off dealing directly (if they can) with Anduril for weapons supply.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Rossticus
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5:45p, 8/10/26
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Rossticus
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5:47p, 8/10/26
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to txags92 • 6:05p, 8/10/26
txags92 said:
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.


This sounds pretty plausible. They are fighting for survival, MIC is fighting for profits.

If SLS had been given veto authority over letting SpaceX build rockets, they would have done the same. Nightmare scenario for the MIC to have somebody show how much faster and cheaper their products can be made.


There is a workforce difference to consider. American unions will not work for the rates their skilled Ukrainian counterparts will. Even nonunion workers cannot compete.
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txags92
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 6:22a, 8/11/26
ABATTBQ11 said:
txags92 said:
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.


This sounds pretty plausible. They are fighting for survival, MIC is fighting for profits.

If SLS had been given veto authority over letting SpaceX build rockets, they would have done the same. Nightmare scenario for the MIC to have somebody show how much faster and cheaper their products can be made.


There is a workforce difference to consider. American unions will not work for the rates their skilled Ukrainian counterparts will. Even nonunion workers cannot compete.

The pay for the workforce is really a small part of why US weapons manufacturing is so slow and expensive. The main problem is the government procurement system that rewards bloat and bureaucracy over speed and cost efficient production.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to txags92 • 8:28a, 8/11/26
txags92 said:
EastSideAg2002 said:
Rossticus said:
I know, "Unnamed sources", but not remotely outside the realm of possibility.


This sounds pretty plausible. They are fighting for survival, MIC is fighting for profits.

If SLS had been given veto authority over letting SpaceX build rockets, they would have done the same. Nightmare scenario for the MIC to have somebody show how much faster and cheaper their products can be made.

Well, Ukraine won't have union workers making everything. So, of COURSE it's cheaper to make it there.

Now, improve? Not sure about that. I worked on the precursor to the PAC-3 and it's not a simple thing to do what it does...
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