***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

9,865,144 Views | 53518 Replies | Last: 11 min ago by EastSideAg2002
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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"Regarding the attack on the Starobelsk student dormitory, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces describe as one of the headquarters of the Russian Rubikon drone unit, while Russia describes it as an attack against civilians, I want to say this.

On that specific case, in the fog of war, I can't figure out with certainty what happened. But I can talk about what is absolutely known and documented. For example, the fact that Russia involves teenagers in assembling drones at the Alabuga facility in Tatarstan. And it does so openlyin fact, it's even publicized. In a promotional spot, 15- to 17-year-old students from the "Alabuga" college participated in an advertisement about Shahed production. In the video, they talk about working on drone production and earning between 150,000 and 350,000 rubles.

Is a facility that produces drones a legitimate military target? Obviously yes. However, if Ukraine struck that site, there would be a real possibility that minors working there would also die. And Russia would naturally say it was an attack against childreneven though the real crime is involving minors in drone assembly, knowing full well that the facility is a military target."
Rossticus
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EDIT: Accidentally made a duplicate post. Original post is post above.

74OA
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AG
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Eliminatus
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Rossticus said:






Just so random to me at this point. The Oreshnik is either a nuclear weapon or an intimidation weapon. Still don't think they are going to blast Kyiv with a nuke and Ukraine and Europe were not intimidated the first two times they used it.

I really hesitate to jump to the "desperation" explanation but it just doesn't make sense to me to utilize one of their rare and complicated MRBMs in a conventional manner. Their targeting is not really good enough to be considered a precision weapon. I've never been able to pin down exactly what kind of conventional submunitions they utilized earlier or if they were just straight dummy rounds. As the first one likely was from what I gathered at the time.

At the same time though, I guess the practical side of me can see the "we have them, let's just f'ing use them since this war is wildly out of our control anyways" viewpoint.

Jason Ag
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Showing that they could actually land a nuke if they choose.
Eliminatus
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Rossticus said:

Putin again resorting to veiled nuclear threats and alluding to a supposed stance that anything which prevents them from doing what they please is a sovereign threat to their security and the "global balance of power". ~So you'd better let them do whatever they want or they may just nuke you~ ** Cue senseless hysterical screeching.






Ah. Failed to see this earlier. Maybe explains the Oreshnik choice then. Which is just more nuclear flexing. Didn't think he would try that again, but here ya go I guess.

Do wonder where the point of origin was for the launch if this actually was an Oreshnik. There was a hubbub couple weeks ago that Belarus was either getting/preparing to stage Oreshniks. Enough that all intelligences have been keeping an eye out and called out this possible attack earlier today. Be interesting to see if it did come from Belarus and whether Putin is still trying to rope them in closer and closer to the war themselves.
Eliminatus
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Jason Ag said:

Showing that they could actually land a nuke if they choose.


Well, obviously. But thought they had already made that point clear the two other times they have employed this weapon system. Third times the charm when we all buckle?

But I failed once again to account for the fact that I am in fact, not Russian and don't think like them. Plus, the tweet I missed that Putin was indeed recently flexing his nuclear cards so you do seem to be correct for sure.
Waffledynamics
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Beautiful. I wonder how they're making sure their drones are there just in time. Loitering? AI controlled? Either way, remarkable that they have fire control over the land bridge like this.
Jason Ag
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High stakes russian roulette. One in six chance it is a nuke.

Seriously though, the psychological effect of being on the receiving end and not knowing. Plus if he does decide to nuke Kiev in the future, the false ones create cover for the real thing.
Waffledynamics
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If Putin wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would have already done it. He won't. It's a non-issue.
nortex97
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AG
On timed college dorm strike: Conservative Treehouse.
docb
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nortex97 said:

On timed college dorm strike: Conservative Treehouse.

Who cares? Maybe they should go back to their own country and it wouldn't happen.
Sq 17
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Waffledynamics said:

If Putin wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would have already done it. He won't. It's a non-issue.


Putin wants to win this special military operation (which is hard to define what he now considers winning )

Currently in Putins opinion ( which is the only opinion that matters and is hard to figure out his thought processes ). using nukes does not help him win

Hopefully this remains the case
Because he is enough of a sociopath that right and wrong don't really figure into his thinking
fullback44
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Sq 17 said:

Waffledynamics said:

If Putin wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would have already done it. He won't. It's a non-issue.


Putin wants to win this special military operation (which is hard to define what he now considers winning )

Currently in Putins opinion ( which is the only opinion that matters and is hard to figure out his thought processes ). using nukes does not help him win

Hopefully this remains the case
Because he is enough of a sociopath that right and wrong don't really figure into his thinking


If Putins tries this (nukes), his,military will turn on him as will all the super wealthy oligarchs…. They won't let Putin do this, the entire world would turn on him and he would probably end up falling out of the apartment window. Just my 2 cents as a peasant
Eliminatus
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Jason Ag said:

High stakes russian roulette. One in six chance it is a nuke.

Seriously though, the psychological effect of being on the receiving end and not knowing. Plus if he does decide to nuke Kiev in the future, the false ones create cover for the real thing.

Aye, very true. I am always one to highlight the "boy who cries wolf" issue. I also get caught up at times in the sheer objectiveness of the numbers, strategies, etc and forget the human element on the other end sometimes. Being at the mercy of something that you can't stop or even really attempt to has to be incredibly frustrating/scary.
74OA
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Waffledynamics said:

Beautiful. I wonder how they're making sure their drones are there just in time. Loitering? AI controlled? Either way, remarkable that they have fire control over the land bridge like this.

Ambush drones prepositioned on the ground near front lines have been common for a long time. So I imagine they are now being pushed out to enemy LOC's too, waiting to be cued by these sensors.
Teslag
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nortex97 said:

On timed college dorm strike: Conservative Treehouse.


Already addressed. It was a drone command center using "students".
Rossticus
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nortex97 said:

On timed college dorm strike: Conservative Treehouse.


An op-ed written by "Sundance", who rails against Ukraine and references the "Russian Human Rights commissioner" (we all know how seriously Russia has taken human rights throughout their war), the head of the occupation government in Luhansk, and the woman (I use that term liberally) responsible for overseeing the displacement and indoctrination of innumerable Ukrainian children. Quite the read indeed.

"When Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin uses the term "Nazi" he does so with a perspective that is not the same as western considerations. Ukraine is well known for their ideological blood lust, the events within this story are related to that definition.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the targeting of a college dormitory in Starobilsk, Luhansk, an occupied territory under the control of Russian forces.

This was not a military target. Yana Lantratova, Russia's human rights commissioner, said that 86 teenagers aged 14 to 18 had been asleep inside the hostel belonging to Luhansk Pedagogical University's Starobilsk college when Ukrainian drones had attacked it during the night.

Leonid Pasechnik, the top Russian-installed official in Luhansk, said two people had been pulled from the rubble. Maria Lvova-Belova, presidential commissioner for children's rights, said up to 18 children could still be trapped.

Ukraine's military denied the Russian accusations and said it had struck an elite drone command unit in the area. It said that Kyiv complied with international humanitarian law.

Putin said in his own statement, which was carried by state TV, that there were no military targets near the dorm.

"There are no military facilities, intelligence service facilities, or related services in the vicinity. Therefore, there is absolutely no basis for claiming that the munitions struck the building as a result of our air defense or electronic warfare systems. The strike was not accidental; it came in three waves, with 16 drones targeting the same location," Putin told officials. (more)

Again, it does not go unnoticed that Zelenskyy feels the strongest empowerment when U.S. officials are meeting with NATO partners to discuss the conflict. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with NATO allies in Sweden, Zelenskyy takes the opportunity of association to carry out a strike that carries severe retaliatory consequence.

The people who control Zelenskyy use him as a tool to bait Putin, and they do it every time the U.S. has a delegation discussing the regional issues. There is a direct pattern here that repeats itself. Western media pretend not to notice.

Speak to anyone in Eastern Europe about their opinion of Ukrainians' and/or Volodymyr Zelenskyy and you will get the same response. It is a response disconnected from the opinion of European leaders. Eastern Europeans well understand the nature of the Ukraine mindset."
PJYoung
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Waffledynamics said:

Beautiful. I wonder how they're making sure their drones are there just in time. Loitering? AI controlled? Either way, remarkable that they have fire control over the land bridge like this.


Saw a tweet last week talking about heavy drones dropping video cameras roadside connected via starlink to track Russian traffic.

lb3
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Waffledynamics said:

If Putin wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would have already done it. He won't. It's a non-issue.
I think Putin is telegraphing that if a rout threatens Crimea, he'll go nuclear.
PJYoung
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lb3 said:

Waffledynamics said:

If Putin wanted to nuke Ukraine, he would have already done it. He won't. It's a non-issue.
I think Putin is telegraphing that if a rout threatens Crimea, he'll go nuclear.


Except he won't.
jbeaman88
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And Ukraine knows it
PJYoung
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Rossticus
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Not exactly sure what a French threat is worth to a guy whose balls Putin keeps in his desk drawer, but interesting I suppose.

Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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74OA
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Teslag
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Rossticus said:




Ukraine is justified in killing every last one of them
Eliminatus
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74OA said:



Russians have no idea of how to combat this currently. The best they have done so far, is decree that military and military oriented vehicles are only allowed on certain stretches. Which is objectively stupid since it gives Ukraine the greenlight to hit literally everything moving on those roads with no hesitation.

Ukraine is flat out winning the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) mission aspect of this war and doing it handily.

The damn thing is though, until truly cost effective and non-complicated counter drone tech is rolled out in significant strength, I don't know what Russia can do to actively deal with this. Passive stuff will go up soon like nets I presume but Ukraine is just roving freely right now over much of the occupied territory. Not a bad card to have in your hand as a Uke commander.

Preston Stewart had a really good interview with Ryan O'Leary, an American commander of their Foreign Legion, who went out of his way to stress a need to have a shift in the drone fighting doctrines that Ukraine uses. Lo and behold, here we are a few months later with this huge shift in drone tactics and it has caught Russia completely off guard. Not saying it was him per se, but the Ukes have finally developed reliable mid range attack drones (100-300km) and it has changed everything, again. He was right.

Found the interview for those so inclined:

TRM
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