***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,055,276 Views | 48690 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by docb
Not a Bot
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74OA
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The previously reported $3B over-valuation of US equipment sent to Ukraine, just doubled to $6.2B. On the upside, that's "found money" now available to support Ukraine. I doubt DOD could accurately balance a household checkbook.

WINDFALL

Gordo14
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Gordo14
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74OA said:

The previously reported $3B over-valuation of US equipment sent to Ukraine, just doubled to $6.2B. On the upside, that's "found money" now available to support Ukraine. I doubt DOD could accurately balance a household checkbook.

WINDFALL




That's probably because it is not a checkbook. It's probably driven by asset depreciation. Maybe some things they transferred they didn't depreciate intially and they have now calculated the "actual" current value.
74OA
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Gordo14 said:

74OA said:

The previously reported $3B over-valuation of US equipment sent to Ukraine, just doubled to $6.2B. On the upside, that's "found money" now available to support Ukraine. I doubt DOD could accurately balance a household checkbook.

WINDFALL




That's probably because it is not a checkbook. It's probably driven by asset depreciation. Maybe some things they transferred they didn't depreciate intially and they have now calculated the "actual" current value.
Yes, I was being facetious. Read the article, it explains.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions at Novodanilivka - Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka - Verbove, Vilne Pole - Makarivka. They are also restraining the advance of Russian troops in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Heavy fighting continues at the Lyman direction, in the areas of Yampolivka and Serebryanske Forestry. Offensive actions were carried out in the direction of Bilohorivka - Shipylivka


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/21-june-the-defense-forces-of-ukraine-continue-to-conduct
Ulysses90
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It's also a result of "parking money" as committed without obligation the funds (i.e. contract award). Even funds obligated on a long lead time contract can be de-obligated and used elsewhere. De-obligation is sometimes necessary because of "fac5 of life " changes or contractor default. However, it is often done nefariously to give the appearance of spending funds in one manner while doing a last minute switch to spend them on something else entirely. The DCAA doesn't have enough auditors to catch the comptrollers and program managers that do this. I suspect that a lot of the $6.2B was obligated on contracts with the knowledge that it would be repurposed later when no one was looking for other purposes.
74OA
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Sanctions evasion countermeasures, more funding from EU and Germany, grain deal in jeopardy and other miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES
Touchless
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Not a Bot said:


Surprised the dude was only going 140kmph there at the end. I hit over 85 daily on my commute to work. At least he started speeding up as it was going though.
Eliminatus
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So there has been chatter last couple of days of Wargonzo, a very prevalent Russian milblogger, was the mysterious civilian looking guy that was recently in that Uke trench raid. Could still be rumor and absolutely nothing 100% confirmed yet from what I can tell but other Russian sources are saying it was him and he is now in a hospital, albeit with no brain activity.

When I first saw that video that individual immediately jumped out to me as being different. The similarities are pretty uncanny as well and would match his way of working. Which is front line work.

Just thought it was an interesting development worth mentioning and wondering about further implications of it was indeed him.

74OA
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Ukraine to get more AMRAAMs, probably NASAM reloads.

MISSILES
Who?mikejones!
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/CtwlDGCA-RB/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Never have been able to link instagram correctly.

It's the Wagner leader crying about how bad it's going for Russia and how much info Russia is hiding about how poorly its going for Russia
AgLA06
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Eliminatus said:

So there has been chatter last couple of days of Wargonzo, a very prevalent Russian milblogger, was the mysterious civilian looking guy that was recently in that Uke trench raid. Could still be rumor and absolutely nothing 100% confirmed yet from what I can tell but other Russian sources are saying it was him and he is now in a hospital, albeit with no brain activity.

When I first saw that video that individual immediately jumped out to me as being different. The similarities are pretty uncanny as well and would match his way of working. Which is front line work.

Just thought it was an interesting development worth mentioning and wondering about further implications of it was indeed him.


Yah, I made the comment to my buddy when that video came out that it was weird they would send SF into a trench unless it was for something or someone specific. Even weirder that they would release the video as they've been pretty quiet during the offensive so far.

This wouldn't surprise me at all. Smoking one of Russia's most visible war "celebrities" brings this offensive home to Russian's back home. Pretty interesting target of opportunity and plays in a grey space. Normally journalists are off limits, but this guy has been tied into Russian terrorism for a while. Generally at the site of a hit or bomb or operation before it happens to publicise it.

The "no brain activity" is an interesting way to put it as in the video you can clearly see multiple bullet holes in his helmet from the burst.
74OA
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If that's a photo during the raid he was armed at the time, so "reporter" or not he made himself a combatant.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Reporters hold cameras that guy was holding an AK when he met God.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

The "no brain activity" is an interesting way to put it as in the video you can clearly see multiple bullet holes in his helmet from the burst.
Always preferred "assumed room temperature" but it all means the same
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Pepe SiIvia
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AgLA06 said:

Eliminatus said:

So there has been chatter last couple of days of Wargonzo, a very prevalent Russian milblogger, was the mysterious civilian looking guy that was recently in that Uke trench raid. Could still be rumor and absolutely nothing 100% confirmed yet from what I can tell but other Russian sources are saying it was him and he is now in a hospital, albeit with no brain activity.

When I first saw that video that individual immediately jumped out to me as being different. The similarities are pretty uncanny as well and would match his way of working. Which is front line work.

Just thought it was an interesting development worth mentioning and wondering about further implications of it was indeed him.


Yah, I made the comment to my buddy when that video came out that it was weird they would send SF into a trench unless it was for something or someone specific. Even weirder that they would release the video as they've been pretty quiet during the offensive so far.

This wouldn't surprise me at all. Smoking one of Russia's most visible war "celebrities" brings this offensive home to Russian's back home. Pretty interesting target of opportunity and plays in a grey space. Normally journalists are off limits, but this guy has been tied into Russian terrorism for a while. Generally at the site of a hit or bomb or operation before it happens to publicise it.

The "no brain activity" is an interesting way to put it as in the video you can clearly see multiple bullet holes in his helmet from the burst.
Based on the video, he was a clean kill. He actually had a weapon on him when he was maneuvering around the trench, compared to the clueless infantry who didn't have weapons at all when the operation began. Played with fire and got burnt.
P.U.T.U
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Yup, as soon as he picked up a gun he no longer has the protection of a citizen. I mean I know Russia wouldn't care either way but it is a legal kill if that is him.
Quote:

Journalists are protected only as long as they do not take a direct part in the hostilities.
And no crap he doesn't have any brain activity, he got freaking shot in the brain at close range
ATX_AG_08
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I'd bet money that wasn't war gonzo. I could be wrong, but I find it very doubtful. I have a hard time believing some war propagandist would have the balls to pick up a gun and head towards fight.
ABATTBQ11
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P.U.T.U said:

Yup, as soon as he picked up a gun he no longer has the protection of a citizen. I mean I know Russia wouldn't care either way but it is a legal kill if that is him.
Quote:

Journalists are protected only as long as they do not take a direct part in the hostilities.
And no crap he doesn't have any brain activity, he got freaking shot in the brain at close range

FIFY
Burrus86
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

Reporters hold cameras that guy was holding an AK when he met God.

That's assuming God would let him in!
knj2417
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Burrus86 said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Reporters hold cameras that guy was holding an AK when he met God.

That's assuming God would let him in!


You get to meet god either way
AgLA06
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74OA said:

If that's a photo during the raid he was armed at the time, so "reporter" or not he made himself a combatant.
Completely agree.

Doesn't mean he was going to have one when the team got there. I support it, but that's a ballsy call to go get him.
lb sand
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Seriously interested in how he got transported to a lpr hospital if he just got smoked by Uke sof?
Did the sof team just go in and clear the trench and leave?
I get that they might do that do an not to be counter attacked.
Waffledynamics
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I wouldn't imagine they'd waste SOF units telling them to hold a trench like more regular soldiers, but I could be wrong.
AgLA06
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lb sand said:

Seriously interested in how he got transported to a lpr hospital if he just got smoked by Uke sof?
Did the sof team just go in and clear the trench and leave?
I get that they might do that do an not to be counter attacked.
That is interesting as the version with the close caption the SOF references the infantry linking up with them. Maybe it never happened. Or it wasn't him.

More than likely, the Russian statement has nothing to do with the truth as usual. Hell, they still won't admit the Ukes smoked one of their best generals. And he was buried publicly this week.

Either way. It's been entertaining to watch.
Blackbeard94
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Intelligence gathering?
JFABNRGR
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Chongar bridge hit?
Connects Kherson with Crimea.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14ftzf9/the_chongar_bridge_connecting_crimea_with_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

Video below looks staged w cars placed on rail almost all missing wheels and one that looks like it was run over by a tank. Not sure what is going on here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/14fxecu/another_video_of_the_consequences_of_the_strike/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
Gordo14
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Waffledynamics
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This has been said repeatedly, and then nothing happens.

I'm going to speculate here. There are a few possibilities:

1. This information is true, and Russia will eventually do something catastrophically stupid that might even render part of their ill-gotten gains useless even if they end up keeping the South.

2. These statements serve to get the IAEA or someone else involved, which may mean a change in behavior by the people at the plant.

3. These statements are for shock publicity.

I just don't see Russia being dumb enough to intentionally cause catastrophic damage that renders the area uninhabitable. The plant seems more useful as a hostage.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I agree. Its propaganda.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Eliminatus
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I see it as a warning to Russia (that one of their purported plans has become known) and a way to get out in front of it in case anything DOES happen. It doesn't hurt the Ukes and the wording is very specific. They are not saying the Russians are doing it for certain but that a scenario has been looked at by them for consideration. It's a cover your ass statement IMO and to throw international attention on it and may even prevent such an occurrence from happening at all, if the Russians were ever seriously considering it in the first place. Setting up a deterrence by being the first to say if anything happens, look at Russia first to blame.

I also doubt anything will happen but I consider myself a rational person. Russia's entire continued invasion in the first place is not rational.
Gordo14
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Eliminatus said:

I see it as a warning to Russia (that one of their purported plans has become known) and a way to get out in front of it in case anything DOES happen. It doesn't hurt the Ukes and the wording is very specific. They are not saying the Russians are doing it for certain but that a scenario has been looked at by them for consideration. It's a cover your ass statement IMO and to throw international attention on it and may even prevent such an occurrence from happening at all, if the Russians were ever seriously considering it in the first place. Setting up a deterrence by being the first to say if anything happens, look at Russia first to blame.

I also doubt anything will happen but I consider myself a rational person. Russia's entire continued invasion in the first place is not rational.
PA24
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Awkward
74OA
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Reportedly there are 77,000 square miles infested with mines in Ukraine. Regardless of the accuracy of that dubious number, mines nonetheless will be a nightmare during and after the war.

Today's SITREP.
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