aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

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Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

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Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

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Yep. Wait till the shooting starts, though...........

It already has

AG 2000' said:

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Rossticus said:

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This is threatening to become a stain on this generation (from an eventual historical perspective) if it transpires uncontested, as anticipated.

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You seem way too invested in us going to war to defend a country halfway around the world we have no interest in (well, other than the setup for Congress, Biden, Obama, to launder foreign aid).

Until we secure our southern border, not one single American life should be put at risk for Ukraine.

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You're conflating two unrelated issues and I never said anything about troops. Think critically. Do you think that if we fail on this that Biden will shift his attention to the border? Or EVER give attention to the border issue? Of course not.

The border, irrespective of what we do here, will not be addressed until a Republican returns to the Oval Office. So how about we focus on not screwing this up and getting a bunch of innocent people killed.

🇺🇦Military commissariat in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district, today. pic.twitter.com/bckzpnGm09

— Ukraine War Report (@UkrWarReport) February 22, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Russia is thinking of “recognition” of “LPR/DPR” within the boundaries not of the occupied territory, but of entire Luhansk & Donetsk regions. This would expand the aggression to the entire Donbas. On the map you see the occupied territory & the whole regions marked with 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/ZbnFi54vE0

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) February 22, 2022

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Kind of assumed this was a foregone conclusion. The real question is whether he goes beyond those borders in this initial phase or not.

You'd have to be a fool to believe Putin will be satisfied with those two regions, but I do think he might have a long pause while they engage in further destabilization efforts to facilitate the next move.

well, somehow we couldn't defeat the Taliban. Maybe the Ukrainians can be as resourceful as the Taliban.

EU announces sanctions package targeting all 351 members of Russian State Duma who approved recognition of breakaway states in eastern Ukraine along with Russia’s ability to access EU markets https://t.co/qE6fPHsLVU

— Factal News (@factal) February 22, 2022

LMCane said:

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Tex117 said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Tex117 said:

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[img]][/img]

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Tex, your afraid of the russians? You should be! Personally, I give the Ukrainians......one chance in three.

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Not per se the Russians...but all of what this may represent. If the West doesn't take a stand against aggression like this...we wont against China...and any other authoritarian figure who decides to eat their neighbor.

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a 33% chance?

the Ukrainians actually have ZERO percent chance of stopping a Russian invasion.

even one prong of the Russian armored forces (such is south of Belogorod) is more powerful than anything the Ukrainians can put in the field.

in reality, it would be shocking if the Ukes can even destroy 10 of the Russian advanced tanks,

and they have well over 200 deployed.

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He's adjusting the quote from Marco Ramius in Hunt for Red October. The officers of the submarine are talking about the Russians and the odds of survival against them were 1 in 3.

Quote:

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Kind of assumed this was a foregone conclusion. The real question is whether he goes beyond those borders in this initial phase or not.

You'd have to be a fool to believe Putin will be satisfied with those two regions, but I do think he might have a long pause while they engage in further destabilization efforts to facilitate the next move.

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Don't see why he wouldn't. He has pretty much a green light as it is.

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Maybe the Ukrainians can be as resourceful as the Taliban.

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They were the Irish of the Soviet Empire.

Employees of the Russian consulate in Odessa apparently burning documents. https://t.co/edxNbudBPO

— X Soviet (@XSovietNews) February 22, 2022

There is a Russian Consulate in Houston
1333 West Loop S Ste 1300, Houston, TX 77027

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Kind of assumed this was a foregone conclusion. The real question is whether he goes beyond those borders in this initial phase or not.

You'd have to be a fool to believe Putin will be satisfied with those two regions, but I do think he might have a long pause while they engage in further destabilization efforts to facilitate the next move.

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Don't see why he wouldn't. He has pretty much a green light as it is.

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Do it slowly so each step is only a "minor incursion".

The problem is Russia's ability to not only advance, but also hold conquered territory while fighting a brutal guerilla war. Russia is not the USSR, they have a limited supply of bodies to even create an army. The average male lifespan is 64 years and disease/alcoholism/poverty has decimated men in their prime fighting age.

They've been making small advances since 2008, because they cannot sustain a large army while also maintaining an economy that is self sufficient. Which it isn't.

Excuse machine cranking up...

https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/595242-the-memo-biden-braces-for-impact-as-russia-moves-to-the-brink

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The administration also talks up Biden's role in galvanizing a united front against Putin a point that was emphasized by Vice President Harris during her trip to the Munich Security Conference.

"I don't see any disunity. It's an extremely unified front and has been pulled together much more quickly than in the past," said Mitchell Orenstein, a professor of Russian and East European studies at the University of Pennsylvania.

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Oldfinger created a "united front!" As we now see, this "united front" certainly deterred the Russians.

A man from the Center for American Progress hopes this will not be used against Joey Nonuts:

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Bergmann, of the Center for American Progress, is broadly supportive of Biden's approach so far. But he worries about what happens when the crisis is inevitably politicized.

"I would hope there would be some [bipartisan] understanding that we are going to have to take some economic pain on the chin" in terms of Russian retribution for sanctions, he said.

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Yep. He screws up. The nation feels the pain of an approach that absolutely failed to yield a result. Yet we should be sympathetic to the failure of this 70s-era pacifist fossil to do anything but kiss the asses of our enemies around the world.

This comes after the Russian Foreign Ministry's announcement that all Russian Diplomatic Missions in Ukraine will be Closed and Evacuated immediately.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2022

Good point.

Russia's economy has a lower GDP than each of Germany, France, the UK, Canada, and Italy -- each of whom are members of NATO. Their ability to sustain a long guerrilla war is limited.

This is why they have amassed so many forces. They are hoping for a quick toppling of the Ukraine government and will not use US-style "rules of engagement" to protect civilians. They will be as brutal as they have to be to quickly suppress resistance.

Putin wants it both ways, he announced that NG and LNG supplies will remain uninterrupted. Want to crush Putin? Stop accepting NG supplies. Starve them of hard currency that they cannot live without.

But that would mean the EU would have to suffer the same consequences. He has them tight, give me what I want, or I'll crush your economies by ending energy supplies. Ukraine suffers.

Most NATO countries cannot muster an army or has no willingness to go to war for Ukraine. Putin knows this.

I think the unity is a good thing.

Russia planned this in the aftermath of Afghanistan when the UK and other NATO members were openly criticizing and questioning American policy. France and Australia got into a spat a few months ago over submarines. NATO members were at odds with one another.

Now, it seems the alliance is at least working in coordination again.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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The problem is Russia's ability to not only advance, but also hold conquered territory while fighting a brutal guerilla war. Russia is not the USSR, they have a limited supply of bodies to even create an army. The average male lifespan is 64 years and disease/alcoholism/poverty has decimated men in their prime fighting age.

They've been making small advances since 2008, because they cannot sustain a large army while also maintaining an economy that is self sufficient. Which it isn't.

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Meh...don't put too much thought into demographics. It's not like 70 year old men will be doing the fighting.

And who do you think would fight harder: A Russian guy without career options looking to prove himself in the military? Or an American deciding what pronouns he/she/they/zit should use while waiting to get discharged with health benefits for life (or while waiting on their government paid sex change operation)?

Apparently Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe "very soon" https://t.co/rff8KVL2fG

— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen) February 22, 2022

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Putin wants it both ways, he announced that NG and LNG supplies will remain uninterrupted. Want to crush Putin? Stop accepting NG supplies. Starve them of hard currency that they cannot live without.

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Yeah, notice Germany didn't say anything about Nord Stream 1...only about Nord Stream 2.

AG 2000' said:

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Rossticus said:

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This is threatening to become a stain on this generation (from an eventual historical perspective) if it transpires uncontested, as anticipated.

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You seem way too invested in us going to war to defend a country halfway around the world we have no interest in (well, other than the setup for Congress, Biden, Obama, to launder foreign aid).

Until we secure our southern border, not one single American life should be put at risk for Ukraine.

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totally agree with this

I would be a lot more supportive of defending OTHER countries borders if we first started to defend our own border!

Biden cam is live. Waiting for his arrival. They just did a mic check.

lunchbox said:

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Apparently Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe "very soon" https://t.co/rff8KVL2fG

— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen) February 22, 2022

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lol, see my previous post - thanks for posting this. This could make it very interesting.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6298507870001#sp=show-clips

javajaws said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Putin wants it both ways, he announced that NG and LNG supplies will remain uninterrupted. Want to crush Putin? Stop accepting NG supplies. Starve them of hard currency that they cannot live without.

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Yeah, notice Germany didn't say anything about Nord Stream 1...only about Nord Stream 2.

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Putin is much more cunning than our leftists- he has been planning this for years

he has been amassing troops for the last 10 months!

they have less debt in Russia as a percent of GDP than the USA-

which country can more afford a trade war over oil and fertilizer?!

aezmvp said:

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I have been unimpressed by the sanctions announced so far. They are significantly more tepid than expected and completely inadequate to what has happened. They should also have a number of additional sanctions ready to go but putting people on OFAC that aren't on your country's list on there and hitting a few banks but not all and not hitting their oil or gas companies at all? And Putin not on there? No heads of these break away republics? I mean really weak sauce.

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This is because we are essentially ceding those two regions while trying to signal that we will use the stronger sanctions if Putin tries to take most or all of Ukraine proper.

The concern with our response, obviously, is that it's so weak it simply emboldens Putin to be more aggressive.

LMCane said:

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javajaws said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Putin wants it both ways, he announced that NG and LNG supplies will remain uninterrupted. Want to crush Putin? Stop accepting NG supplies. Starve them of hard currency that they cannot live without.

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Yeah, notice Germany didn't say anything about Nord Stream 1...only about Nord Stream 2.

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Putin is much more cunning than our leftists- he has been planning this for years

he has been amassing troops for the last 10 months!

they have less debt in Russia as a percent of GDP than the USA-

which country can more afford a trade war over oil and fertilizer?!

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The poorer country usually has less to lose for sure, even more so when they don't grow their economy through deficit spending. My comment was strictly to Germany's short sighted policy of buying NG from Russia. They deserve what they get if Putin cuts off their supply.

Peepaw still dicking around to get his points in line?

jetch17 said:

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Peepaw still dicking around to get his points in line?

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Meds haven't kicked in yet.

A Ukrainian journalist just posted this footage of Grad fire against Ukrainian positions. I count at least 30 rocket and it was clearly firing before the camera turned so it's likely this was a full salvo - 40 rockets. I don't remember the last time that happened. Maybe 2018? pic.twitter.com/c09Q5rxBiJ

— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) February 22, 2022

AgResearch said:

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jetch17 said:

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Peepaw still dicking around to get his points in line?

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Meds haven't kicked in yet.

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Metamucil kicked in.

He's waiting on Hunter to sober up so he can be introduced as the special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, given his extensive business experience there, to negotiate peace.