74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

---

My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

---

Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

---

they don't need an amphib landing, they can just send ground forces from Moldova

and their new republics to head west along the black sea

Rossticus said:

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Putin just declared that Russia insists on a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. I'm sure he'd respect such a nation's sovereign government.

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LMAO

okay, sounds easy enough to do!

all ukrainian soldiers hitchhike back to Kiev and turn in your weapons,

and drive those tanks over to Belgorod.

Pretty surreal.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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Putin just declared that Russia insists on a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. I'm sure he'd respect such a nation's sovereign government.

---

LMAO

okay, sounds easy enough to do!

all ukrainian soldiers hitchhike back to Kiev and turn in your weapons,

and drive those tanks over to Belgorod.

---

In exchange he'll gladly give them all a bullet in the head.

In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians. pic.twitter.com/rPUp8rMlNq

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) February 22, 2022

Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

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This isn't my geographic specialty, but I bet the Russians want to make sure the aerospace/naval facilities that are used for various launches/production etc. (Antonov etc.) will be in their 'realm.' Kazakhstan (Baikonur) is basically a Russian satellite state already.

---

if I'm Putin I am taking the entire Black Sea coast to preclude and force out NATO ships from any landing points in Ukrainian territory.

---

Well, I think he knows Nato is about as likely to invade as Taiwan is. He can control/manipulate whatever is left of Ukraine without worrying about the Germans/French etc. fighting to protect it.

LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

---

My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

---

Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

---

they don't need an amphib landing, they can just send ground forces from Moldova

and their new republics to head west along the black sea

---

There's like 2000 Russian personnel in the breakaway region iirc. That's not going to be near enough for them to try take the ports, let alone the port cities, west of Crimea imo.

aezmvp said:

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Rossticus said:

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Putin just declared that Russia insists on a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. I'm sure he'd respect such a nation's sovereign government.

---

Recognizes borders in the breakaway constitutions (anyone know how far those go?)

Neutral demilitarized Ukraine

Ukraine must reject NATO membership

Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian


IMHO just setting up causus belli

---

the current boundaries of the Luhansk and Donets Republics are only a fraction of the entire Donbas

which means either Zelensky moves back the Ukraine troops to the West- or big time fighting.

Zelensky will never recognize Crimea as Russian or reject NATO membership

jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

---

aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

---

My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

---

Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

---

they don't need an amphib landing, they can just send ground forces from Moldova

and their new republics to head west along the black sea

---

There's like 2000 Russian personnel in the breakaway region iirc. That's not going to be near enough for them to try take the ports, let alone the port cities, west of Crimea imo.

---

a lot more than 2000 in the breakaway Republics- it would not be difficult for them to simply move a bit south to the Black Sea and head due West to odessa.

74OA said:

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Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

---

Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

nortex97 said:

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LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

---

This isn't my geographic specialty, but I bet the Russians want to make sure the aerospace/naval facilities that are used for various launches/production etc. (Antonov etc.) will be in their 'realm.' Kazakhstan (Baikonur) is basically a Russian satellite state already.

---

if I'm Putin I am taking the entire Black Sea coast to preclude and force out NATO ships from any landing points in Ukrainian territory.

---

Well, I think he knows Nato is about as likely to invade as Taiwan is. He can control/manipulate whatever is left of Ukraine without worrying about the Germans/French etc. fighting to protect it.

---

That's not the strategy I am discussing here.

he should take the black sea coast not to stop NATO from an invasion, but to stop any NATO ships from even entering the Black Sea.

This is an older map I believe, but shows the ethnic and linguistic ties that the eastern parts of Ukraine have to Russia:

aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

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Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

---

Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

---

unfortunately, the only people playing the game are the Iranians and the Russians.

the West is playing "where's Joe Biden getting ice cream today?"

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

Other than language and culture, how do you tell the difference in ethnicities over there? Realistically, they're all white, Eastern Europeans.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

---

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

---

My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

---

Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

---

they don't need an amphib landing, they can just send ground forces from Moldova

and their new republics to head west along the black sea

---

There's like 2000 Russian personnel in the breakaway region iirc. That's not going to be near enough for them to try take the ports, let alone the port cities, west of Crimea imo.

---

True. Odessa alone is a city of over a million people, for example.

TommyBrady said:

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Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

why is his time coming to a close?

he has been the leader of Russia for 22 years now. he is still much younger than Biden!

CDUB98 said:

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Other than language and culture, how do you tell the difference in ethnicities over there? Realistically, they're all white, Eastern Europeans.

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that's like saying all Iraqis look alike.

they still have many different cultures and ethnicities in eastern europe and the Balkans

MILITARY CONVOY OF MORE THAN 100 TRUCKS WITH SOLDIERS SEEN ON ITS WAY TOWARDS UKRAINIAN BORDER IN RUSSIA'S BELGOROD REGION - WITNESS

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 22, 2022

He knows he only has a decade max before he declines. He wants everything to be set up before he goes. The stress of being a dictator in a country like Russia almost guarantees he won't live as long as peepaw

LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

---

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

---

My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

---

Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

---

they don't need an amphib landing, they can just send ground forces from Moldova

and their new republics to head west along the black sea

---

There's like 2000 Russian personnel in the breakaway region iirc. That's not going to be near enough for them to try take the ports, let alone the port cities, west of Crimea imo.

---

a lot more than 2000 in the breakaway Republics- it would not be difficult for them to simply move a bit south to the Black Sea and head due West to odessa.

---

They do not have enough ground forces to make that push in the breakaway region within Moldova. As a whole across all the breakaway regions yes the number is greater, but you're talking about having to cover and secure ports and cities in a push West towards Odesa.

I'm still of the opinion that securing east of theDnieper and Kyiv is of a higher initial priority. The Russians would then control Karkhiv and the railhead, Mariupol and the entirety of the Sea of Azov, and Putin gets his land bridge to Crimea.

TommyBrady said:

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Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

aggiehawg said:

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74OA said:

---

Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

---

Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

---

.

And the deck is seriously stacked against Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe. If NATO doesn't step in here there's no way they will once Russia establishes bases along that entire boundary. It's becoming clear that if they don't do something then a game changing strategic concession will be made to Russia by Europe. And then what?

Peter Zeihan used this map to illustrate the Russian gaps that have been managed one way or the other throughout history. It is great. Ukraine has this distinct honor of being located on two. I read that Russia is using upwards of 75% of its conventional military force to carry out this operation. That means increased odds of Russia using unconventional capabilities to manage any other issues that may present themselves.

Agence France Press 15 minutes ago

Foreign ministers of EU countries have unanimously agreed on new sanctions against Russia over its recognition of breakaway regions in Ukraine's east and deployment of troops there, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian says.

W said:

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TommyBrady said:

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Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

Discussions on #Russia's state TV basically outlined Putin's strategy: invade Donbas and once there is a "provocation" by the Ukrainian military, start invading the rest of Ukraine.

Grinning ear-to-ear, a lawmaker predicts: "And there will be a provocation, I guarantee it."

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 22, 2022

I still think they will also try a coup de main around Kyiv as well. But this is the most logical, if a bit safer approach. If they are going for a more maximalist approach they might try to be more aggressive in the south to try and get intact bridges across the Dnieper.

LMCane said:

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Agence France Press 15 minutes ago

Foreign ministers of EU countries have unanimously agreed on new sanctions against Russia over its recognition of breakaway regions in Ukraine's east and deployment of troops there, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian says.

---

This is getting laughable. They're hopelessly pissing in the wind and they know it.

Rossticus said:

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aggiehawg said:

---

74OA said:

---

Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

---

Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

---

.

And the deck is seriously stacked against Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe. If NATO doesn't step in here there's no way they will once Russia establishes bases along that entire boundary. It's becoming clear that if they don't do something then a game changing strategic concession will be made to Russia by Europe. And then what?

---

not so sure about that.

a huge difference strategically, politically and historically between Ukraine and Poland.

look back to 1939- Poland was literally the cause of WWII breaking out due to British security guarantees.

No way does NATO let Poland get invaded by Russia.

Rossticus said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

74OA said:

---

Aftermath:

"Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraine's eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland and other NATO countries to Ukraine's west. When the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to station forces land, air and missile in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus, which has effectively become a Russian satrapy."

"Russian forces will thus be arrayed along Poland's entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania. (Moldova will likely be brought under Russian control, too, when Russian troops are able to form a land bridge from Crimea to Moldova's breakaway province of Transnistria.) Russia without Ukraine is, as former secretary of state Dean Acheson once said of the Soviet Union, "Upper Volta with rockets." Russia with Ukraine is a different strategic animal entirely."

If Ukraine Falls

---

Feels like we are in a reality TV show based on the game of Risk.

---

.

And the deck is seriously stacked against Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe. If NATO doesn't step in here there's no way they will once Russia establishes bases along that entire boundary. It's becoming clear that if they don't do something then a game changing strategic concession will be made to Russia by Europe. And then what?

---

It was disputes over the Baltic Balkan States that also played a large role in setting up World War I, too.

ETA: Corrected.

Balkan. Baltic states were all under Russian control at the time.

aezmvp said:

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Balkan. Baltic states were all under Russian control at the time.

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My mistake. Thanks for the correction.