One thing to mention here is the emergence of reports in recent days of various countries intelligence indicating (US and UK included) that Russia intends to set up camps for perceived dissidents, political enemies, high risk individuals, and ethnic minorities before transport to Russia where they'll be indefinitely detained (prior to their eventual disappearance I'm sure).

Once that happens there's no taking it back.

This mistake happens alllllll the time. No worries at all Ms. Hawg!

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

If I am Zelensky, I am withdrawing all of my forces to surround Kiev and Odessa- basically a large circle in the western part of the country.

that shrinks by about 2/3 the area to be defended, and extends the Russian lines. that is their only hope to try and hold out for a bit.

as they are deployed now, they will be sliced and diced, and flanked on both sides.

TommyBrady said:

---

He knows he only has a decade max before he declines. He wants everything to be set up before he goes. The stress of being a dictator in a country like Russia almost guarantees he won't live as long as peepaw

---

agreed but still a decade is a LONG time.

Oh, they have a couple dozen Su-24's.

It's not quite so feckless a force as the Luftwaffe, which could probably get fewer than 20 percent of their aircraft rated as mission capable/into the air at any one time.

This is the indication of some of those MRAPs and heavy trucks that have been seen in so many of the protests inside Russia. They use those to transport dissidents and prisoners. Those have been attached to their National Guard formations that they have spread out behind their CAA and TGA formations (Combined Arms Army and Tank Guard Army). Those will be used as counter insurgency, MP, and screening forces, guarding military and infrastructure sites, escorting convoys etc.

Russia to evacuate embassy staff from Ukraine https://t.co/61dR3VyEhv

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 22, 2022

The Russian Foreign Ministry is reporting that the Evacuation of Russian Personnel and their Families from Diplomatic Missions inside Ukraine will begin very soon.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2022

LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

If I am Zelensky, I am withdrawing all of my forces to surround Kiev and Odessa- basically a large circle in the western part of the country.

that shrinks by about 2/3 the area to be defended, and extends the Russian lines. that is their only hope to try and hold out for a bit.

as they are deployed now, they will be sliced and diced, and flanked on both sides.

---

The issue with this is that Putin has the Ukraine surrounded on 3 sides. Pulling back to defend the west of the country doesnt do anything to shorten the norther border with Belarus that the Ukraine has to defend or to shorten the Moldovan border. Your still stuck with potential threats from 3 sides.

45-70Ag said:

---

In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians. pic.twitter.com/rPUp8rMlNq

— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) February 22, 2022

---

That first tweet is a debatable argument against Russia but that's probably another thread.

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

it seems like a chicken or the egg situation.

a foreign country doesn't want to send its troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian army...if the Ukraine won't fight the Russians themselves.

one reason (among many) foreign countries would help Poland...is because the Poles will fight with everything they've got

This is threatening to become a stain on this generation (from an eventual historical perspective) if it transpires uncontested, as anticipated.

Yee haw.

More Videos of the Rocket Strike. https://t.co/Ejc60X96sf

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2022

W said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

it seems like a chicken or the egg situation.

a foreign country doesn't want to send its troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian army...if the Ukraine won't fight the Russians themselves.

one reason (among many) foreign countries would help Poland...is because the Poles will fight with everything they've got

---

By the time Poland comes into the equation there will be so many Russian assets amassed at their border foreign countries might yet leave them to their own devices.

[img]][/img]

TommyBrady said:

---

He knows he only has a decade max before he declines. He wants everything to be set up before he goes. The stress of being a dictator in a country like Russia almost guarantees he won't live as long as peepaw

---

This was a fun rabbit hole:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_the_Soviet_Union
(I separately wiki'd Yeltsin and Putin)

Stalin - 74
Malenkov - 86
Kruschev - 77
Brezhnev - 75
Adropov - 69 (nice!)
Chernenko - 74
Gorbachev - 90 (alive)
Yeltsin - 76
Putin - 69 (alive)

I'd say 10 years looks to be generous if we solely looked at their past leaders. Of course Putin ostensibly largely abstains from alcohol and promotes a health conscious image, so I'd say at least 10 more years is likely.

Too late. Lots of people will now die no matter what anyone does.

Tex117 said:

---

[img]][/img]

---

Tex, your afraid of the russians? You should be! Personally, I give the Ukrainians......one chance in three.

aeroag14 said:

---

Tex117 said:

---

[img]][/img]

---

Tex, your afraid of the russians? You should be! Personally, I give the Ukrainians......one chance in three.

---

Not per se the Russians...but all of what this may represent. If the West doesn't take a stand against aggression like this...we wont against China...and any other authoritarian figure who decides to eat their neighbor.

nortex97 said:

---

Oh, they have a couple dozen Su-24's.

It's not quite so feckless a force as the Luftwaffe, which could probably get fewer than 20 percent of their aircraft rated as mission capable/into the air at any one time.

---

I am assuming you mean today's modern Luftwaffe?

not the Luftwaffe of 1940

2/https://t.co/7MBFeJBTcN

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 22, 2022

Tex117 said:

---

aeroag14 said:

---

Tex117 said:

---

[img]][/img]

---

Tex, your afraid of the russians? You should be! Personally, I give the Ukrainians......one chance in three.

---

Not per se the Russians...but all of what this may represent. If the West doesn't take a stand against aggression like this...we wont against China...and any other authoritarian figure who decides to eat their neighbor.

---

a 33% chance?

the Ukrainians actually have ZERO percent chance of stopping a Russian invasion.

even one prong of the Russian armored forces (such is south of Belogorod) is more powerful than anything the Ukrainians can put in the field.

in reality, it would be shocking if the Ukes can even destroy 10 of the Russian advanced tanks,

and they have well over 200 deployed.

I have been unimpressed by the sanctions announced so far. They are significantly more tepid than expected and completely inadequate to what has happened. They should also have a number of additional sanctions ready to go but putting people on OFAC that aren't on your country's list on there and hitting a few banks but not all and not hitting their oil or gas companies at all? And Putin not on there? No heads of these break away republics? I mean really weak sauce.

Faustus said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

He knows he only has a decade max before he declines. He wants everything to be set up before he goes. The stress of being a dictator in a country like Russia almost guarantees he won't live as long as peepaw

---

This was a fun rabbit hole:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_the_Soviet_Union
(I separately wiki'd Yeltsin and Putin)

Stalin - 74
Malenkov - 86
Kruschev - 77
Brezhnev - 75
Adropov - 69 (nice!)
Chernenko - 74
Gorbachev - 90 (alive)
Yeltsin - 76
Putin - 69 (alive)

I'd say 10 years looks to be generous if we solely looked at their past leaders. Of course Putin ostensibly largely abstains from alcohol and promotes a health conscious image, so I'd say at least 10 more years is likely.

---

has anyone else realized that Putin IN TEN MORE YEARS after 30 years as the dictator-

will just be the same age as Joe Biden is right now in his first year as the President?!?!

LMCane said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Oh, they have a couple dozen Su-24's.

It's not quite so feckless a force as the Luftwaffe, which could probably get fewer than 20 percent of their aircraft rated as mission capable/into the air at any one time.

---

I am assuming you mean today's modern Luftwaffe?

not the Luftwaffe of 1940

---

Yes, LOL. The Germans have been skimping so much on military spending their mission capable rates sometimes are absolutely laughable. They decided to stop publishing them entirely in 2019 I think.

aezmvp said:

---

I have been unimpressed by the sanctions announced so far. They are significantly more tepid than expected and completely inadequate to what has happened. They should also have a number of additional sanctions ready to go but putting people on OFAC that aren't on your country's list on there and hitting a few banks but not all and not hitting their oil or gas companies at all? And Putin not on there? No heads of these break away republics? I mean really weak sauce.

---

It's shameful and seeing the US response the past few days has left me physically ill. This isn't who we are. This isn't reflective of the American spirit I was raised in. I grew up around a lot of old Ags who were in the European theater during #2 and you absorb a lot of that pride and spirit. This is wrong. This is all wrong and it's about to get a lot of people killed.

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

it seems like a chicken or the egg situation.

a foreign country doesn't want to send its troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian army...if the Ukraine won't fight the Russians themselves.

one reason (among many) foreign countries would help Poland...is because the Poles will fight with everything they've got

---

By the time Poland comes into the equation there will be so many Russian assets amassed at their border foreign countries might yet leave them to their own devices.

---

also keep in mind, one of Trump's first trips was to Poland as the POTUS

Poland for decades has been bringing online NATO and American equipment, training and tactics.

compare and contrast with the poorer Ukraine relying on ex-soviet equipment and training.

Poland has capable squadrons of F-16s and UAVs and an actual air defense system. plus a MUCH EASIER BORDER to defend.

they won't be surrounded on three sides like Ukraine is- or like they were in 1939.

We've provided javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. That's a lot better than sitting in a dirt trench with an AK-47 as tanks are rolling towards you.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/22/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin

Rossticus said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

I have been unimpressed by the sanctions announced so far. They are significantly more tepid than expected and completely inadequate to what has happened. They should also have a number of additional sanctions ready to go but putting people on OFAC that aren't on your country's list on there and hitting a few banks but not all and not hitting their oil or gas companies at all? And Putin not on there? No heads of these break away republics? I mean really weak sauce.

---

It's shameful and seeing the US response the past few days has left me physically ill. This isn't who we are. This isn't reflective of the American spirit I was raised in. I grew up around a lot of old Ags who were in the European theater during #2 and you absorb a lot of that pride and spirit. This is wrong. This is all wrong and it's about to get a lot of people killed.

---

in all honesty, what is happening with the sellout to the Iranians is much more shameful

and in the end, will get alot more people killed

and is more important to American national security strategy and doctrine

Rossticus said:

---

One thing to mention here is the emergence of reports in recent days of various countries intelligence indicating (US and UK included) that Russia intends to set up camps for perceived dissidents, political enemies, high risk individuals, and ethnic minorities before transport to Russia where they'll be indefinitely detained (prior to their eventual disappearance I'm sure).

Once that happens there's no taking it back.

---

Not exactly a peace keeping thing to do.

W said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

W said:

---

TommyBrady said:

---

Putin will not stop until he gets everything he wants. He is trying to set up Russia for the next 100 years and realizes his time is coming to a close soon. Either Ukraine gives in or he is going to take it no matter the cost.

---

he also not going to stop until the Ukrainian army gets over there and challenges his advance..

where are they?

---

Hoping against hope for help, I would imagine. Russia will mow them down. Ukraine has no air support.

---

it seems like a chicken or the egg situation.

a foreign country doesn't want to send its troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian army...if the Ukraine won't fight the Russians themselves.

one reason (among many) foreign countries would help Poland...is because the Poles will fight with everything they've got

---

Vlad isn't stupid...he isn't going to invade a NATO member country.

shiftyandquick said:

---

We've provided javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. That's a lot better than sitting in a dirt trench with an AK-47 as tanks are rolling towards you.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/22/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin

---

But in the grand scheme, it doesn't do a lot more than make everyone feel better for having done something. It doesn't result in sufficient impact to shift the equation.

shiftyandquick said:

---

We've provided javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. That's a lot better than sitting in a dirt trench with an AK-47 as tanks are rolling towards you.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/22/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin

---

problem being, how are those Javelin going to be used?!

you think the Russkies are just going to line up their tanks in a nice parade formation and drive right toward a Uke position?

I saw on some video the Ukes are using SUVs to transport their Javelins.

SUVs!!

the Russkies will lay down such a devastating MLRS and Katyusha and thermobaric bomb barrage there will not even be any positions left for the Ukrainians to defend.

how are the Ukes going to get close enough to the Russians to even fire a Javelin? there will be HIND choppers MI-8, Sukhois blasting everything in front of the Russian advance, much less Russkie UAV monitoring the terrain.

LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

I have been unimpressed by the sanctions announced so far. They are significantly more tepid than expected and completely inadequate to what has happened. They should also have a number of additional sanctions ready to go but putting people on OFAC that aren't on your country's list on there and hitting a few banks but not all and not hitting their oil or gas companies at all? And Putin not on there? No heads of these break away republics? I mean really weak sauce.

---

It's shameful and seeing the US response the past few days has left me physically ill. This isn't who we are. This isn't reflective of the American spirit I was raised in. I grew up around a lot of old Ags who were in the European theater during #2 and you absorb a lot of that pride and spirit. This is wrong. This is all wrong and it's about to get a lot of people killed.

---

in all honesty, what is happening with the sellout to the Iranians is much more shameful

and in the end, will get alot more people killed

and is more important to American national security strategy and doctrine

---

I agree. There is significant failure on many fronts with regard to our international policy.