David Wallace said:

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FYI...

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Ukraine is the only country in Europe where firearms are not regulated by statute. Everything related to firearms is regulated by the Order 622 of Ministry of Internal Affairs. Citizens are permitted to own non-fully automatic rifles and shotguns as long as they are stored properly when not in use.

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Sounds like they are regulated by statute

RIA- The Russian Federation Council received an appeal from the president about the use of the Russian army abroad, said Matvienko

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 22, 2022

That can't be good.

atmtws said:

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That can't be good.

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I think we are seeing the Russian war machine beginning to kick into gear. They've been doing disinformation campaigns to justify their actions.

Here is Sentinel-2 imagery of Taganrog Airbase, at approx 0830z earlier today Feb 22nd.

5 x IL-76 transports are likely taxiing for take-off, with another 3 poss taxiing out.

On the previous pass, on the 19th, there were 23 aircraft present, compared to 19 on today's imagery. pic.twitter.com/vU4T6ulWBB

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) February 22, 2022

No worries, Xiden's got this.

Quote:

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And Trump Derangement continues at full force in the Washington Post. Behold Eugene Robinson:

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With Biden standing firm, Putin must wonder: Where's Trump when I need him?
If Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine at little or no cost to his own interests, he should have done it while Donald Trump was still president. With President Biden leading the response, Putin's potential costs are rising while his hoped-for benefits have evaporated.

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Is it mere coincidence that Putin gobbled up Crimea under Obama, and has moved on Ukraine under Biden, but not under Trump (who tried to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden green-lit it)?

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They approved it. https://t.co/ihjBUx8efS

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 22, 2022

nortex97 said:

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No worries, Xiden's got this.

Quote:

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And Trump Derangement continues at full force in the Washington Post. Behold Eugene Robinson:

Quote:

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With Biden standing firm, Putin must wonder: Where's Trump when I need him?
If Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine at little or no cost to his own interests, he should have done it while Donald Trump was still president. With President Biden leading the response, Putin's potential costs are rising while his hoped-for benefits have evaporated.

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Is it mere coincidence that Putin gobbled up Crimea under Obama, and has moved on Ukraine under Biden, but not under Trump (who tried to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden green-lit it)?

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What absolute delusional insanity. Good lord.

Trump ordered the annihilation of Russian resources and troops in Syria. I guess the author forgot about that.

Eugene Robinson is a leftist propagandist Goebbels would be proud of.

I think western democracies will still be sitting around staring at each other while tanks approach the Oder.

Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

nortex97 said:

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No worries, Xiden's got this.

Quote:

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And Trump Derangement continues at full force in the Washington Post. Behold Eugene Robinson:

Quote:

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With Biden standing firm, Putin must wonder: Where's Trump when I need him?
If Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine at little or no cost to his own interests, he should have done it while Donald Trump was still president. With President Biden leading the response, Putin's potential costs are rising while his hoped-for benefits have evaporated.

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Is it mere coincidence that Putin gobbled up Crimea under Obama, and has moved on Ukraine under Biden, but not under Trump (who tried to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden green-lit it)?

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"Biden standing firm?" I had to check the date to see if that was recent.

Biden signaled that we were going to allow Putin to take the two regions without even hitting him with the more severe sanctions. We practically invited him to take those two regions. The idea that Biden is being strong is just nuts; a completely alternate reality.

aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

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My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Update: these remarks have been moved up and will now be at 1pm eastern, per pool https://t.co/YteS00m8GZ

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 22, 2022

DTP02 said:

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nortex97 said:

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No worries, Xiden's got this.

Quote:

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And Trump Derangement continues at full force in the Washington Post. Behold Eugene Robinson:

Quote:

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With Biden standing firm, Putin must wonder: Where's Trump when I need him?
If Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine at little or no cost to his own interests, he should have done it while Donald Trump was still president. With President Biden leading the response, Putin's potential costs are rising while his hoped-for benefits have evaporated.

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Is it mere coincidence that Putin gobbled up Crimea under Obama, and has moved on Ukraine under Biden, but not under Trump (who tried to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden green-lit it)?

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"Biden standing firm?" I had to check the date to see if that was recent.

Biden signaled that we were going to allow Putin to take the two regions without even hitting him with the more severe sanctions. We practically invited him to take those two regions. That's just nuts; a completely alternate reality.

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"Minor incursions"!!!

jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

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My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

I am sure Putin is shaking in his boots on what president Mumbles will whisper-yell and shake his finger.....

aezmvp said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Based off that account looks like their fleet landing assets have sailed from Novorossiysk east of Crimea. It's not like the Black Sea doesn't have a ton of shipping. I wonder where they're going.

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My random thought is the Sea of Azov off the coast of Mariupol. If Putin wants a land bridge/corridor to Crimea so he isn't beholden to using the rail system bridge, Mariupol is going to be important to securing that. Last I understood, Mariupol was still held by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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It is but I was wondering if they might go to Odessa area tbh. They have that force over there in Moldova which has been quietly ramping up and the Moldovans called up some militia out there. I wonder if they don't play for Odessa out of Crimea with the landing assets they've moved over from the Baltics and around the Black.

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Ukraine's coast is generally unsuitable for amphibious landings: "Several factors limit the Black Sea Fleet's amphibious options. First, Ukraine's coast is characterized by high ground and cliffs to the shoreline with limited beach exits and has few suitable beaches for a mechanized amphibious assault force. Coastal areas not bounded by cliffs are urbanized. These towns, if properly defended, would be difficult to fight through for a landing force going immediately from a beach assault to urban combat in a matter of meters."

NOT EASY

Great read! Thanks for that.

Salute CornPops Message said:

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I am sure Putin is shaking in his boots on what president Mumbles will whisper-yell and shake his finger.....

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I don't think he cares much about any sanctions. Even the Nord Stream 2 pipeline response halting approval is kind of weak imo. Mostly because I expect Germany to just approve it eventually anyways.

The two strongest chips for Europe to play is Nord Stream 2 and SWIFT imo. Though how effective SWIFT would be against Russia is not clear since Russia has been setting up its own system similar to SWIFT.

Putin just declared that Russia insists on a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. I'm sure he'd respect such a nation's sovereign government.

From a reporter on the ground:

I appreciate when people wish me well, and say to be safe, but these events are not about me. I have only ever wanted to be a conduit/channel to share what is going on here. I worry for people who can't 'be safe' because they have no option but to remain in danger...

— Bryce Wilson (@brycewilsonAU) February 22, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Putin just declared that Russia insists on a demilitarized, neutral Ukraine. I'm sure he'd respect such a nation's sovereign government.

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Recognizes borders in the breakaway constitutions (anyone know how far those go?)

Neutral demilitarized Ukraine

Ukraine must reject NATO membership

Ukraine must recognize Crimea as Russian


IMHO just setting up causus belli

Precisely.

Putin claims the entire Donbas. If yesterday’s declaration of war didn’t do it for you, this certainly should https://t.co/oEadmKKSm5

— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) February 22, 2022

I would assume this from his speech today.

🇺🇦⚡️Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports largescale rebel shelling of its positions with the use of 82mm, 120mm mortars and 122mm artillery - JFO Statement pic.twitter.com/kXRHaONtOl

— Ukraine War Report (@UkrWarReport) February 22, 2022

Russia is thinking of “recognition” of “LPR/DPR” within the boundaries not of the occupied territory, but of entire Luhansk & Donetsk regions. This would expand the aggression to the entire Donbas. On the map you see the occupied territory & the whole regions marked with 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/ZbnFi54vE0

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) February 22, 2022

Yup. I would expect a demand to evacuate from Russia or their puppets shortly.

nortex97 said:

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No worries, Xiden's got this.

Quote:

---

And Trump Derangement continues at full force in the Washington Post. Behold Eugene Robinson:

Quote:

---

With Biden standing firm, Putin must wonder: Where's Trump when I need him?
If Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine at little or no cost to his own interests, he should have done it while Donald Trump was still president. With President Biden leading the response, Putin's potential costs are rising while his hoped-for benefits have evaporated.

---

Is it mere coincidence that Putin gobbled up Crimea under Obama, and has moved on Ukraine under Biden, but not under Trump (who tried to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while Biden green-lit it)?

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Heaven help us if Putin figures out a good portion of Brighton Beach is Russian.

Biden would negotiate and offer him all of New York City as long as he promised not to take anything else.

I'd just note that Mariupol—inside the territory that Russia now recognises as part of the independent republics—is a key Ukrainian port and a city of nearly half a million people. https://t.co/Hzysmao2se

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 22, 2022

Rossticus said:

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For all of you who ever wondered what it would be like to watch a sovereign nation in Europe invaded and wiped out it looks like you're about to get your chance.

Closest thing to a time machine ride to 1938 you'll ever get.

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No professional historian here. But I am fascinated by WWII and have watched every documentary under the sun, read many historical accounts, etc.

And all I have been able to think about since yesterday is how similar this all is to 1938.

Just waiting for the part where Boris Johnson/Biden happily step off the plane waving a piece of paper around and talking about peace in our time.

This isn't my geographic specialty, but I bet the Russians want to make sure the aerospace/naval facilities that are used for various launches/production etc. (Antonov etc.) will be in their 'realm.' Kazakhstan (Baikonur) is basically a Russian satellite state already.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Update: these remarks have been moved up and will now be at 1pm eastern, per pool https://t.co/YteS00m8GZ

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) February 22, 2022

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so in Biden time, that really means 1530 hours

guarantee he will be late

nortex97 said:

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This isn't my geographic specialty, but I bet the Russians want to make sure the aerospace/naval facilities that are used for various launches/production etc. (Antonov etc.) will be in their 'realm.' Kazakhstan (Baikonur) is basically a Russian satellite state already.

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if I'm Putin I am taking the entire Black Sea coast to preclude and force out NATO ships from any landing points in Ukrainian territory.