Oldag2020 said:

---

What basis do you have to expect the prices won't return to their pre transitory level?

---

What basis do you have to expect that they will, other than words from the same government telling you WuFlu wasn't a lab leak, Trump cleared Lafayette Square for a photo op, Russian Collusion, and there's not a crises at the southern border?

Oldag2020 said:

---

What basis do you have to expect the prices won't return to their pre transitory level?

---

I'm trying to buy ownership in companies you bought last year, but everything costs me 40% more now than it did for you last year. I hope your stocks come back to the pre transitory level.

And I hope high inflation erodes all the spending power of your parent's life savings, so you'll be forced to sell your transitory stocks to pay for their care.

Oldag2020 said:

---

Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

---

Some of it's transitory, but our accumulated debt and annual deficits have basically eliminated interest rate adjustment as a monetary policy tool. What, you think they're free to raise rates when we're running multi trillion dollar deficits? In a decade, after the short term notes rolled and we had to replace them with higher rate ones, we'd be looking at an economy-collapsing interest burden (trillions per year). so sure the fed is "independent," but if you spend like the prodigal son, you can back them into a corner so that they have to do what you want.

Anyway, when you steal one of their major tools and leave them with just money supply/money printing, you should be worried regardless of what they say for 2 reasons. First, expanding the money supply too quickly drives inflation; this is not disputed. Second, Humanity has a long, proud history of overlooking problems until they're absolutely impossible to ignore and are on the verge of creating a crisis. This is doubly true for the government.

We aren't going to raise interest rates. Modern monetary theory proponents are perfectly fine with spending to get out of a hole, but keep a lid on inflation with taxes being the lever.

This is when I don't regret being 100% commission

First off, stocks are a hedge against inflation. So if they have a properly allocated portfolio. (They do) there should be zero issue with their purchasing power.

Secondly, it's still possible to find cheap stocks. Yes, they are getting more expensive by the day, but there are plenty of value stocks that will protect your assets and allow you to buy in at a fair price.

I wrote why I believe it's transitory in another thread. Here is an article with a similar perspective as me.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/06/12/despite-surging-inflation-markets-now-view-it-as-transitory/amp/

Oldag2020 said:

---

We aren't going to raise interest rates. Modern monetary theory proponents are perfectly fine with spending to get out of a hole, but keep a lid on inflation with taxes being the lever.

---

What % of debt to GDP is considered too much in MMT?

Yes, the middle class is shrinking. But by the same margin, the upper class is increasing. What happened to the majority of the middle class that "disappeared"? Did they fizzle out and become members of the lower class? I'd be willing to bet a majority shifted into the upper class.

Can you honestly say that America was more prosperous in 1971?

20% of Americans are classified as being in the upper class today. Could you say that in 1971?

rocky the dog said:

---

---

And you will still be waiting - all they can do is post with a context of TDS which is still in their head. But no substance. None.

Oldag2020 said:

---

First off, stocks are a hedge against inflation. So if they have a properly allocated portfolio. (They do) there should be zero issue with their purchasing power.

Secondly, it's still possible to find cheap stocks. Yes, they are getting more expensive by the day, but there are plenty of value stocks that will protect your assets and allow you to buy in at a fair price.

---

And we all know how people who have been out of work for a year have liquid cash to jump i to the stock market.

You posts ring of someone completely out of touch with 60% of Americans.

And that is coming from someone who has reasonable savings and a decently sized portfolio.

Question for you though-

If people are now having to spend increasing amounts of their income on basic necessities because of rising costs, how in the hell are they supposed to be able to start putting money into the stock market to protect themselves from inflation?

You statement that stocks hedge against inflation completely ignores this.

Unless ur already in the market significantly ur gonna get burned by inflation.

Everything ur spouting is the same economic theory that was used late 90's through Obama to erode the middle class, create bubbles and almost wreck the economy in 2010.

But yeah....keep telling urself that everything is fine.

when you lose the middle class you end up with too stratified a population and it makes class warfare worse.

what do you see going on politically and socially? ummmmm.... the beginnings of class warfare.

Oldag2020 said:

---

I wrote why I believe it's transitory in another thread. Here is an article with a similar perspective as me.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/06/12/despite-surging-inflation-markets-now-view-it-as-transitory/amp/

---

Yeah, the market views it as transitory until it doesn't. I remember the lead-up to the housing collapse. For six month to year, before prices collapsed, we keep hearing about subprime mortgages. "It's not an issue," they said. Then, "Holy ****, it's an issue."

I'm not saying it isn't transitory. I'm saying no one really knows, and the millennials staffing the current administration don't have a ****ing clue what they are doing, and Joe Biden sure as hell doesn't. They could put this thing into a tailspin in a hurry.

Oldag2020 said:

---

First off, stocks are a hedge against inflation. So if they have a properly allocated portfolio. (They do) there should be zero issue with their purchasing power.

Secondly, it's still possible to find cheap stocks. Yes, they are getting more expensive by the day, but there are plenty of value stocks that will protect your assets and allow you to buy in at a fair price.

---

Yeah, shame on everyone else for not allocating their portfolios like you think they should. And all those people that don't have the discretionary income or foresight to make these kinds of decisions, I guess will just have to spend even more money to feed and shelter them later.

Ags4DaWin said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

First off, stocks are a hedge against inflation. So if they have a properly allocated portfolio. (They do) there should be zero issue with their purchasing power.

Secondly, it's still possible to find cheap stocks. Yes, they are getting more expensive by the day, but there are plenty of value stocks that will protect your assets and allow you to buy in at a fair price.

---

* * *

what do you see going on politically and socially? ummmmm.... the beginnings of class warfare.

---

We're WAY past the beginnings.

You raise some fair points.

I do think it could be a challenge to save for many. However, not impossible. Putting away a few dollars a month is doable even on a minimum wage salary.

Yes, we've grown wealthier since 1971, but I would argue we would have grown even more wealthy (and more evenly distributed) if it weren't for the Fed. And I'm damn sure we would have a smaller, more limited government that doesn't so threaten our freedom

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/

In what way is your freedom threatened by an increase in spending?

Oldag2020:

You're a decently smart kid. But you really need to stop quoting textbooks, articles, and college professors who have clearly guided your brain to a predetermined position. And you absolutely need to fully dive into history, especially during the Carter years and the Great Recession. If you have time, read up on the Great Depression, the policies that followed it that your profs champion, and which tax regressive and middle class destroying programs we have in place today thanks to the those policies.

And yes, since the death of Milton Friedman and the multi decade boom we've been enjoying (with the only dip being the Great Recession created by Clinton era lending programs and prolonged by Obama era economic illiteracy), the general consensus from increasingly Keynesian leaning economists, small time bloggers, and Texags business board "stonks only go up" posters has been that sustained increased inflation in America is a big myth and that our FED can be fully trusted to save us like they heroically have for the last couple of decades. You don't yet know that the FED's actions historically follow the market, not push the market. It isn't until the damage is already known that they step in to "help". What does it do? Nothing. Look it up. All the major market dips.. when did the FED take action? Before or after the dip?

But I challenge you to read up on Milton Friedman. Not skim. Really read. What was his biggest fear? What did he claim would be the number 1 threat to the American economy? What were the tools he advised that we had to fight it? And what has happened since, against all of his advising that we've ignored, that has completely rendered those tools nearly useless?

Inflation is easy to dismiss until it slaps you in the face. And you are young enough that merely throwing some of mommy and daddies cash in the stock market is not going to protect you from runaway inflation.

Read, study, learn, adapt. You are smart and ahead of the curve. Don't get fooled into complacency and trust of a government that is not working in your best interest.

Talk to the poster Hedge. He posted some pretty ignorant takes early on but has really started to mature with more learning and actually experiencing adult life. You will too.

Our freedom is threatened by the insanely large and increasingly authoritarian US government. The growth of that government has been funded by the Fed. We're a far cry from the limited government that our founding fathers designed.

For one, when my heartbeats are stolen by government force and given to someone else. We used to call that slavery.

Oldag2020 said:

---

In what way is your freedom threatened by an increase in spending?

---

You've gotta just be trolling now.

Increased Spending == Increased Debt
Increased Debt == Liabilities owed to some creditor
Some Creditor == China
China == The country who is most belligerent towards the USA and its allies from Honshu through the South China Sea and all the way down to Darwin
Darwin == location in Australia where we stationed 2,000 permanent party USMC Marines just in case

Now, if there's a different country out there who has the resources to purchase Trillions of Dollars worth of US Federal Debt, maybe our freedom won't be as risk from China when the eventuality happens that we can't make our interest payments anymore.

Have you looked at the Debt Clock lately? $28.5T
https://usdebtclock.org/

Remember the big news in 2008 when we went past $10T in Debt?
It took us 232 years to reach that level of debt.
Nowadays, that's only 3 years of government budgets.

OldArmyBrent said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

---

Not sure if serious.

---

_mpaul said:

---

Oldag2020 said:

---

I wrote why I believe it's transitory in another thread. Here is an article with a similar perspective as me.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/06/12/despite-surging-inflation-markets-now-view-it-as-transitory/amp/

---

Yeah, the market views it as transitory until it doesn't. I remember the lead-up to the housing collapse. For six month to year, before prices collapsed, we keep hearing about subprime mortgages. "It's not an issue," they said. Then, "Holy ****, it's an issue."

I'm not saying it isn't transitory. I'm saying no one really knows, and the millennials staffing the current administration don't have a ****ing clue what they are doing, and Joe Biden sure as hell doesn't. They could put this thing into a tailspin in a hurry.

---

^ Truth.

Oldag2020 said:

---

First off, stocks are a hedge against inflation. So if they have a properly allocated portfolio. (They do) there should be zero issue with their purchasing power.

Secondly, it's still possible to find cheap stocks. Yes, they are getting more expensive by the day, but there are plenty of value stocks that will protect your assets and allow you to buy in at a fair price.

---

Your posts keep getting worse (as if that were possible).

What about the 40% that don't have the excess money to invest in the market. How are they hedging inflation? Also if I'm spending 25% more of my income on goods and services because of inflation, I have less to put in the market. Finally, 95%+ are investing in the market for retirement, not living off capital gains and dividends during the year, and its only a fraction of total income invested. So investing in the market only applies to 15% of current income, and then only benefits me when I retire. The other 85% is destroyed by inflation.

Quote:

---

... is at the peak of Mt Stupid on the Dunning-Kruger graph...

---

Nice metaphor!

Oldag2020 said:

---

Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

---

I'm sure the government will be along any minute to help print more money and raise minimum wages to get the costs back to manageable levels.

Oldag2020 said:

---

We aren't going to raise interest rates. Modern monetary theory proponents are perfectly fine with spending to get out of a hole, but keep a lid on inflation with taxes being the lever.

---

I know we aren't going to raise rates. That's the point. For all its complicated analysis, monetary policy really comes down to managing 1) the money supply and 2) interest rates. Well, We've accumulated so much debt and are running such high deficits that the fed can no longer use the second freely, which means it only has the first. And a proven (common sense?) consequence of money supply expansion is inflation.

Don't take my word for it, the fed itself said it would no longer try to stick to its traditional 2% inflation target.