Oldag2020 said:

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aggietony2010 said:

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My sonic drink order on Wednesday: $1.64
My sonic drink order this morning: $2.24

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I agree, happy hour is a lot cheaper

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These were both "happy hour" pricing at the same location for a Route 44 Coke Zero with cherry and vanilla.

Oldag2020 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFC, you do realize interest rates AREN'T fixed for federal debt. Right?

The fed is artificially keeping it at zero, they will rise at some point to cool the 'hot' economy. When that happens the cost to service the debt is going to explode. Resulting in less public funds for things that are necessary.

If you think the Fed is going to keep rates at 0 forever, return your diploma and ring. You are an idiot.

The fed has already signaled they WILL increase the rates AFTER the midterms. It's all politically driven to push through Biden's economic disaster plan.

In short: you're using garbage assumptions.

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But will the change interest rates be larger than the increase in tax revenue? If int rates go up 2% but we grew gdp by 7% and tax revenue increased by 7% there is a difference of 5% to make debt payments

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Except, the spending is only accelerating, servicing the debt is growing rapidly from past spending and only increasing with more debt. What's your solution to address the cost of servicing the debt, which is first and foremost or the Dollar crashes? Where will the revenues come from? You either cut entitlements, confiscate 401Ks/IRAs or raise taxes. If your answer is raise taxes, then on who and to what tax rate?

Prognightmare said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFC, you do realize interest rates AREN'T fixed for federal debt. Right?

The fed is artificially keeping it at zero, they will rise at some point to cool the 'hot' economy. When that happens the cost to service the debt is going to explode. Resulting in less public funds for things that are necessary.

If you think the Fed is going to keep rates at 0 forever, return your diploma and ring. You are an idiot.

The fed has already signaled they WILL increase the rates AFTER the midterms. It's all politically driven to push through Biden's economic disaster plan.

In short: you're using garbage assumptions.

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But will the change interest rates be larger than the increase in tax revenue? If int rates go up 2% but we grew gdp by 7% and tax revenue increased by 7% there is a difference of 5% to make debt payments

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Except, the spending is only accelerating, servicing the debt is growing rapidly from past spending and only increasing with more debt. What's your solution to address the cost of servicing the debt, which is first and foremost or the Dollar crashes? Where will the revenues come from? You either cut entitlements, confiscate 401Ks/IRAs or raise taxes. If your answer is raise taxes, then on who and to what tax rate?

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Exactly as I said. The spending we do now increases future gdp and with it future tax revenue. You continuously spend, increase gdp, and service the debt with the future increased tax revenue created by the higher gdp.

You don't need to raise taxes or cut spending. As long as the spending you do leads to gdp growth you can effectively spend an unlimited amount. The caveat is that productivity must increase continuously. The inputs into productivity growth are 1.increase in technological power and 2. an increase in labor force participants.

Do you think our technological advancement will slow down any time soon? No. Our computing power doubles every 18 months.

UTExan said:

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Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is having its worst week since January thanks to Government interference in the economy: extended unemployment benefits which discourages filling vacant jobs, preventing or discouraging petroleum exploration on federal lands, killing the pipeline deal which will affect supply, massive borrowing which will trigger inflationary pressures and announcement by the St Louis Federal Reserve chief that rate hikes in the interest rate could come next year. In six months the Biden administration has managed to undo all the good that Trump did for the economy.

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This is only a short term pullback because people are taking gains and reallocating their portfolios to reflect their expectations of rising interest rates.

Oldag2020 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFC, you do realize interest rates AREN'T fixed for federal debt. Right?

The fed is artificially keeping it at zero, they will rise at some point to cool the 'hot' economy. When that happens the cost to service the debt is going to explode. Resulting in less public funds for things that are necessary.

If you think the Fed is going to keep rates at 0 forever, return your diploma and ring. You are an idiot.

The fed has already signaled they WILL increase the rates AFTER the midterms. It's all politically driven to push through Biden's economic disaster plan.

In short: you're using garbage assumptions.

---

But will the change interest rates be larger than the increase in tax revenue? If int rates go up 2% but we grew gdp by 7% and tax revenue increased by 7% there is a difference of 5% to make debt payments

---

Except, the spending is only accelerating, servicing the debt is growing rapidly from past spending and only increasing with more debt. What's your solution to address the cost of servicing the debt, which is first and foremost or the Dollar crashes? Where will the revenues come from? You either cut entitlements, confiscate 401Ks/IRAs or raise taxes. If your answer is raise taxes, then on who and to what tax rate?

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Exactly as I said. The spending we do now increases future gdp and with it future tax revenue. You continuously spend, increase gdp, and service the debt with the future increased tax revenue created by the higher gdp.

You don't need to raise taxes or cut spending. As long as the spending you do leads to gdp growth you can effectively spend an unlimited amount. The caveat is that productivity must increase continuously. The inputs into productivity growth are 1.increase in technological power and 2. an increase in labor force participants.

Do you think our technological advancement will slow down any time soon? No. Our computing power doubles every 18 months.

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Our spending massively outpaces our means with each administration dating back decades, encompassing both sides of the aisle. Politicians, both sides, have no desire to curtail spending because they only care about reelection. This path is not sustainable, especially when there are no buyers for our debt. Foreign countries are already devising a plan to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. When that happens there will no buyers for our debt and the dollar will collapse. That will be the great equalizer between the two parties because the military will be decimated and entitlements will evaporate, however we all get to experience the pain/depression.

Prognightmare said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFC, you do realize interest rates AREN'T fixed for federal debt. Right?

The fed is artificially keeping it at zero, they will rise at some point to cool the 'hot' economy. When that happens the cost to service the debt is going to explode. Resulting in less public funds for things that are necessary.

If you think the Fed is going to keep rates at 0 forever, return your diploma and ring. You are an idiot.

The fed has already signaled they WILL increase the rates AFTER the midterms. It's all politically driven to push through Biden's economic disaster plan.

In short: you're using garbage assumptions.

---

But will the change interest rates be larger than the increase in tax revenue? If int rates go up 2% but we grew gdp by 7% and tax revenue increased by 7% there is a difference of 5% to make debt payments

---

Except, the spending is only accelerating, servicing the debt is growing rapidly from past spending and only increasing with more debt. What's your solution to address the cost of servicing the debt, which is first and foremost or the Dollar crashes? Where will the revenues come from? You either cut entitlements, confiscate 401Ks/IRAs or raise taxes. If your answer is raise taxes, then on who and to what tax rate?

---

Exactly as I said. The spending we do now increases future gdp and with it future tax revenue. You continuously spend, increase gdp, and service the debt with the future increased tax revenue created by the higher gdp.

You don't need to raise taxes or cut spending. As long as the spending you do leads to gdp growth you can effectively spend an unlimited amount. The caveat is that productivity must increase continuously. The inputs into productivity growth are 1.increase in technological power and 2. an increase in labor force participants.

Do you think our technological advancement will slow down any time soon? No. Our computing power doubles every 18 months.

---

Our spending massively outpaces our means with each administration dating back decades, encompassing both sides of the aisle. Politicians, both sides, have no desire to curtail spending because they only care about reelection. This path is not sustainable, especially when there are no buyers for our debt. Foreign countries are already devising a plan to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. When that happens there will no buyers for our debt and the dollar will collapse. That will be the great equalizer between the two parties because the military will be decimated and entitlements will evaporate, however we all get to experience the pain/depression.

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I'd love to hear more about this plan to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. What's going to replace it? The Yuan? What a joke.

Edit: also, what do you mean we don't have anyone to buy our debt? US treasuries are the most liquid assets in the world, behind maybe only FOREX. They are also the safest security in the world. This is not debated. It is fact.

Malibu2 said:

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No, I understand his point. He's just wrong. He's confusing absolute advantage with comparative advantage, and still has magical thinking about how cheap an American would be vs. a subsistence farmer if we lived in Randistan.

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How bout we introduce subjective advantage , objective advantage and in between advantage to the mix ?

Oldag2020 said:

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Again, governments are not the same as corporation or individuals. Debt is important, and necessary, for economic expansion. Debt levels do not matter. The only statistic that matters in debt/gdp.

Take a look at this chart.

Name. National Debt to GDP Ratio
Japan 237.54%
Venezuela 214.45%
Sudan 177.87%
Greece 174.15%
Lebanon 157.81%
Italy 133.43%
Eritrea 127.34%
Cape Verde 125.29%
Mozambique 124.46%
Portugal 119.46%
*UNITED STATES* 106.70%
Belgium 99.57%
France 99.20%
Spain 95.96%

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt

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So we.re getting close to having the highest F in the class ?

Malibu2 said:

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Quote:

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Call it our "comparative disadvantage" or whatever you want, it was government idiocy that made it all happen.

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Sorry to keep harping on this but this is getting pretty annoying. You are getting very offended that I would dare question your mighty intellectual economic prowess and encyclopedic knowledge of economic truths. The problem is your clumsy use economic language that has a specific meaning. Comparative advantage is about opportunity costs, not about who does it better.

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Says the guy that is annoyed and offended that another poster would dare question his mighty intellectual economic prowess and encyclopedic knowledge of economic truths.

Oldag2020 said:

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UTExan said:

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Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is having its worst week since January thanks to Government interference in the economy: extended unemployment benefits which discourages filling vacant jobs, preventing or discouraging petroleum exploration on federal lands, killing the pipeline deal which will affect supply, massive borrowing which will trigger inflationary pressures and announcement by the St Louis Federal Reserve chief that rate hikes in the interest rate could come next year. In six months the Biden administration has managed to undo all the good that Trump did for the economy.

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This is only a short term pullback because people are taking gains and reallocating their portfolios to reflect their expectations of rising interest rates.

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For a guy that chastised another poster for the amount of time he spends on an internet site you sure seem to spend a lot of time on the same site

Oldag2020 said:

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Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

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Up(unexpectedly) 0.4% over August, 5.4% over last year. So much to be happy about!

Consumer Prices Jump 5.4% as Bidenflation Speeds Up Again

Oldag2020 said:

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Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

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Any more insights?

Sanctimonious and Wrong - just like every other lib i know

Oldag2020 said:

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Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

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Can you please explain what is currently happening? Expert opinions are always appreciated.

Libs run from accountability? Shocked. Shocked I tell you.

I bet he assumes those prices will go back to pre-supply issue prices once the supply is balanced too.

Guys, I don't know if y'all realize this, but OldAg2020 has a degree in econcomics. That he got last year. And he can regurgitate all the talking points from his woke professors.

He's not worried about inflation, so you shouldn't be either.

Cassius said:

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Pre xiden: 2 lbs gulf shrimp for $10.99.
Today, 1.5lbs for $15.99

Pre xiden: Propane exchange $15.49
Today, $17. 99

Pre xiden: Skirt steak $5.99 lb
Today, $7.49 lb


Enjoy the Xiden economy.

Oh, I was told I'm getting a 25% raise next week...

Not.

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FYI, never use propane exchange. Always have them filled.

Salute The Marines said:

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Cassius said:

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Pre xiden: 2 lbs gulf shrimp for $10.99.
Today, 1.5lbs for $15.99

Pre xiden: Propane exchange $15.49
Today, $17. 99

Pre xiden: Skirt steak $5.99 lb
Today, $7.49 lb


Enjoy the Xiden economy.

Oh, I was told I'm getting a 25% raise next week...

Not.

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FYI, never use propane exchange. Always have them filled.

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This...go to Tractor Supply (if there is one near you, most likely there is) and have them fill up your existing tank(s). You're throwing money away exchanging them (for instance, at Kroger).

The thing to remember is that inflation is not caused by a shortage resulting in short term higher prices. Inflation is caused by expanding the money supply.

Of course, if the government expands the money supply to counter the higher prices resulting from a short term shortage, then we get inflation. It's just that the cause was expanding the money supply, not the shortage.

Oldag2020 said:

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Everything you listed is increasing in price due to temporary supply imbalances. ie it is transitory and will not continue for the foreseeable future.

Rule #1 don't fight the fed

The fed isn't worried and neither am I

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Had to give this post it's 10th star to turn it blue since we ALWAYS come back to this post, and the one started by this poster, but I couldn't find it quickly.

Looks like inflation is still higher than the norm and could be headed higher again.

Since Fed rate cuts began in September, the 10-year note yield has risen from 3.60% to 4.60%.

This puts yields at their highest since May 2024, even as the Fed aggressively cuts rates.

Rates are rising after the Fed began cuts with a 50 bps cut for the first time since 2008. pic.twitter.com/FrAzdDbGiT

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 26, 2024

So why are interest rates rising as the Fed cuts rates?

The main reason is that markets have realized that inflation is back on the rise.

3-month annualized core CPI is nearing 4% while PCE, PPI, and CPI inflation are all rising again.

This is BEFORE tariffs and tax cuts. pic.twitter.com/62DbVTWDWf

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 26, 2024

Also confirming the hawkish shift in bond markets, the US Dollar, $DXY, hit a fresh 25-month high.

It is now up nearly 8% since October as markets price in more inflation and Trump Administration policies.

$1.00 USD is now worth $1.44 CAD which is nearing a 20-year high. pic.twitter.com/Dnru7BA8m9

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 26, 2024

Lastly, China is facing the EXACT opposite situation as as the United States.

Their 10-year yield has collapsed nearly 100 basis points in 2024 and widespread stimulus has begun.

China is nearing a recession.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. pic.twitter.com/lzsfMGSz04

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 26, 2024

Since Fed rate cuts began in September, the 10-year note yield has risen from 3.60% to 4.60%.

This puts yields at their highest since May 2024, even as the Fed aggressively cuts rates.

Rates are rising after the Fed began cuts with a 50 bps cut for the first time since 2008. pic.twitter.com/FrAzdDbGiT

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 26, 2024

In the words of Ronald Reagan... "Trust but verify." Transitory was a classic example of lemmings parroting what they're fed.

As I tell young people... do your own research.

We're at a very pivotal point. The dollar could be on the precipice of a significant drop at the same time that the 10-year yield falls down to 3.25%. The narrative that fits this scenario is that money has been pouring into the dollar as world economies and competing currencies have deteriorated. US and China bond outflows have been the main liquidity for the injection of liquidity into the dollar. A drop like that would signal money leaving the dollar and moving back into treasuries, at lease in the short term. Would likely be packaged with obvious signs of deteriorating US economic conditions.

In the flip case, and why this whole thing is pivotal, if the dollar and bond yield were to continue moving up significantly, it could signal we are much further along in the "3rd wave of inflation" scenario. Like the 60's and 70's and any time a central authority tries to manage itself through inflation from massively expanded money supply, inflation almost always comes with an initial spike that puts the previous economy to bed, a cool off period, and then a sustained move significantly higher that crushes the economic landscape.

I'm long in TLT for the first scenario. But I have my stop in place to prevent me from losing much in case the 2nd scenario takes hold.