We have our first widespread severe weather outbreak of the year. The Storm Prediction Center has today classified has High Risk across much of the South. Tomorrow has a Moderate Risk (one step below high risk) across the East Coast.

It is expected there will be multiple Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watches issued today and possibly into tomorrow.

So for anyone living in the areas, stay safe and keep an eye on the sky.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST LA/SOUTHEAST AR ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND AL...

...SUMMARY...
A significant tornado outbreak, with long-track, intense tornadoes
is expected to begin this afternoon across parts of Louisiana and
Arkansas, and then spread eastward and peak this evening into
tonight across Mississippi and Alabama.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Lining up be a crazy couple days. Already reached out to friends in MS. They are buckling up.

Do not forget about the Panhandle. ~two weeks ago with subzero temps without wind chill, tornados this past weekend and now blizzard conditions. Temps not as cold, but winds 30+ (possibly 50-60).

Old_Ag_91 said:

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Geez, if this is the first weather outbreak, What happened in February?

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I believe "severe weather" is reserved for tornados/hail/winds.

"Severe winter weather" would be the cold/snow.

getting some thunder here in Atlanta area right now....expecting a few strong storms today/tomorrow.

Quote:

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Mesoscale Discussion 0200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Central MS...Central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 171556Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for
tornadic supercells and a PDS tornado watch will likely be needed
within the next hour or two.

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Yup. Pretty fascinating.

I'm sitting at home by my pool teleworking here in sunny Florida at a nice sunny 79 degrees.

dallasiteinsa02 said:

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PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Austin American Statesman says A&M opened up the SEC to tornados.

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Of course they did.

Charpie said:

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PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Yup. Pretty fascinating.

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I have noticed that too. Tornado alley, along Red River, shifted south, then to East Texas, now SEC country. Of course my explanation for it is, that weather happens.

I'm sure Joe will send FEMA in quickly to offer relief to any illegals impacted by the storms. Americans can eff off.

Old_Ag_91 said:

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Geez, if this is the first weather outbreak, What happened in February?

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I'm pretty sure that the February cold weather outbreak had to do with all of my ex-wives being in the same location for a short amount of time.

Salute the Tornados!

Maybe too much energy being generated by Bama football team and Saban, creating environment for tornadoes.
"bout as hairbrained as all these racial theories popping out of the libs mouths.

Rapier108 said:

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We have our first widespread severe weather outbreak of the year. The Storm Prediction Center has today classified has High Risk across much of the South. Tomorrow has a Moderate Risk (one step below high risk) across the East Coast.

It is expected there will be multiple Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watches issued today and possibly into tomorrow.

So for anyone living in the areas, stay safe and keep an eye on the sky.

Quote:

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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST LA/SOUTHEAST AR ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND AL...

...SUMMARY...
A significant tornado outbreak, with long-track, intense tornadoes
is expected to begin this afternoon across parts of Louisiana and
Arkansas, and then spread eastward and peak this evening into
tonight across Mississippi and Alabama.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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LOL, just in time for our road trip to Destin.

PearlJammin said:

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dallasiteinsa02 said:

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PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Austin American Statesman says A&M opened up the SEC to tornados.

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Of course they did.

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Baylor sued as well, demanding....windfall...payments.

Is this weather porn, seems like every storm is getting elevated.

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Of course my explanation for it is, that weather happens.

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EXACTLY! Climate Change (they really mean Global Warming) zealots are either too stupid (AOC, Al Gore, Greta, etc) or chose to pretend that "weather DOES NOT JUST happen".

Climate Change zealots love to spout "hottest on record" or "second hottest on record". But they rarely acknowledge that our "records" are woefully short. One of my favorites is ice cover in the Artic. Our only half way decent (but not complete by far) records of Artic ice only go back 40 years or so.

From 1973-75 I was a young AF wx weenie at Goose Bay, Labrador. Both winters I spent there the Navy would use Goose as a base for observing and tracking Artic Ice, as best they could.

They used specially modified Navy P-3 submarine hunters painted mostly white with dayglo orange nose, tail, and wing tips. They only sent one plane at a time and they would only be there for four or five days at a time. So obviously the data they gathered was spotty in both in the number of observations and spatially. The Navy primarily focused on seal lanes, etc. It wasn't until the introduction of weather satellites that we started getting decent coverage of the Artic, both in time and spatially.

Our sea surface temperature data base is also woefully short, for the same reasons. Only spotty obs from major sea lanes before satellites. And that data is also compromised by the fact that over the years sea surface temps were measured in various ways and at different depths. And if fact, satellite derived SSTs are not really a measure of ocean temp at all - it's the temp just slightly above the surface of the ocean.

Just some things to keep in mind when debating climate change with your liberal friends. Trust me - they won't want to hear it, much less believe it. I know that from experience.

Kozmozag said:

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Is this weather porn, seems like every storm is getting elevated.

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No, it isn't. I worked for NWS for 20 years on Norman, OK. The NWS Storm Prediction Center is just one of several weather related organizations in Norman. I visited the National Weather Center, the building that the SPC is located in, several times a week on business. I know several folks who work there, including an Aggie meteorologist. They are professionals, not alarmists like some private weather outfits, the Weather Channel being the absolute worst.

I assume The Weather Channel's "torcon" scale gets laughed at within the walls of the SPC.

The Shank Ag said:

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Old_Ag_91 said:

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Geez, if this is the first weather outbreak, What happened in February?

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I believe "severe weather" is reserved for tornados/hail/winds.

"Severe winter weather" would be the cold/snow.

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That could be the distinction-- February is too obvious to think they have forgotten it. In any case, it should not be thought that there is anything unusual about a disastrous surge in March-May range. Doesn't make them any better and prayers always at such times, but its something even actively take into account when planning interstate driving in those months. The general event is predictable, even if the specifics are not. This actually sounds like fairly more specific work in prediction, which is good.

For anyone in the affected areas, stay safe y'all.

PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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While Tornado Alley is the best known area for tornadoes, Dixie Alley is known for having more higher end, long track tornadoes. It is definitely not a new or recent phenomenon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixie_Alley

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 29
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and central Alabama
Central to eastern Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1135 AM until
700 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are expected to develop this
afternoon capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes.

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Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 29 (noaa.gov)

Prayers sent for my family members that live right in the middle of the most likely to get hit.

Owlagdad said:

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Charpie said:

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PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Yup. Pretty fascinating.

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I have noticed that too. Tornado alley, along Red River, shifted south, then to East Texas, now SEC country. Of course my explanation for it is, that weather happens.

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It's almost like, similar to the climate, that **** isn't the same all of the time. It's an algorithm that can't be figured out by us lowly humans.

Quote:

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 32
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CST Wed Mar 17 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Northern and western Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
600 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Discrete supercells and linear clusters are expected to
intensify and becoming increasingly widespread across the
Ark-La-Miss region through this evening. At least a few significant
tornadoes are expected, one or more of which may become
long-tracked.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Oxford MS to 25 miles
west of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

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Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 32 (noaa.gov)

Quote:

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Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...portions of central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...

Valid 171801Z - 171930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.

SUMMARY...A local expansion of tornado watch 29 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A favorable tornadic environment exists across central
Alabama with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the upper
60s yielding MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. In addition, this area
is in close proximity to the warm front where low-level winds are
backed and low-level SRH is maximized. A supercell which developed
in Dallas County has taken advantage of this favorable tornadic
environment with radar evidence of a tornado near the Dallas Autauga
county line. There is considerable question regarding the longevity
of the tornado threat with this activity. The warm sector is
advecting northeastward, but this storm may eventually move to the
cool side of the boundary. However, given the potential for this
storm to potentially move out of watch 29 and additional shower
development to it's south and southeast which could deepen and
become tornadic, watch 29 may need to be expanded into eastern
Alabama.

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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 204 (noaa.gov)

Quote:

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Mesoscale Discussion 0205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 30...

Valid 171812Z - 171945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues.

SUMMARY...A small corridor more favorable for the development of a
strong tornado may be evolving across south-central MS.

DISCUSSION...Recent KDGX radar imagery reveals a tornadic supercell
over Lincoln County MS. This supercell has developed within an
environment characterized by strong instability and low-level shear.
The environment immediate downstream of this cell is currently free
of storms. The area downstream also recently experienced a subtle
break in the clouds, allowing for a bit more heating. The surface
observation at JAN recently reported 78/68 and is now showing a due
south wind at 15 kt. These factors suggest a small corridor more
favorable for the development of a strong tornado may be evolving
across south-central MS.

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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 205 (noaa.gov)

Birmingham Live Feed with James Spann

Spann is in suspenders mode, he's the greatest.

PearlJammin said:

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The tornado belt sure seems to have shifted east the last 10 years. Moved to Dallas area 15 years ago and have only had a couple of close calls with weak nados. Meanwhile, SEC country has been getting hit with F4 tornadoes every damn year.

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Texas Panhandle was the hotspot for tornados from the 1940s to the 1970s.

The oddball March tornado we had last week was our first severe storm in two years.