*****OFFICIAL ELECTION DAY THREAD*****

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aggiehawg
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In reply to PJYoung • 5:15p, 11/3/20
AG
PJYoung said:
This would translate to a slim Biden victory in Florida.

Of course Dems will blame the communities of color.
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txags92
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In reply to Choobadooba • 5:15p, 11/3/20
AG
blakegrimez said:
Polling of the state before the election doesn't represent turnout for democrats or republicans. But you can see the crosstabs which show how each party is voting.

For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.

That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.

If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.
What in the world are you talking about? There are real numbers out there of how many republicans have voted and how many dems have voted so far and the R #s are up and D #s are down or the same versus 2016. On the other hand, there is zero hard data out there about who is crossing over and who the independents actually voted for. So you are going to ignore how badly the polls are missing on the gap between rep and dem turnout, but take them at face value for how you think crossover voting and independents will break down. Good luck dude...you are in for a long night I believe...
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SLAM
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In reply to DannyDuberstein • 5:16p, 11/3/20
DannyDuberstein said:
PJYoung said:


No way. Very clear that their exit polls are trash. Trump voters arent talking to them


Imagine believing this at all. Serious brainlet hours here.
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Choobadooba
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:16p, 11/3/20
We'll just have to see then.
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oldarmy1
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5:16p, 11/3/20
AG
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Not a Bot
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 5:16p, 11/3/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:


They technically can but things will have to go just right for them.
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aginlakeway
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5:17p, 11/3/20
AG
Are we going to discuss senate races on this same thread?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Irish 2.0
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5:17p, 11/3/20
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PJYoung
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5:17p, 11/3/20
AG
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oldarmy1
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5:17p, 11/3/20
AG
One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to aginlakeway • 5:17p, 11/3/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
Are we going to discuss senate races on this same thread?


Fine with me.
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SLAM
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In reply to PJYoung • 5:17p, 11/3/20
PJYoung said:
This would translate to a slim Biden victory in Florida.



>gaining

They are making up data.
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richardag
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In reply to DTP02 • 5:17p, 11/3/20
DTP02 said:
Just an Ag said:
Heavy turnout is good!
Four hour wait is not!!



Yeah, some people will leave rather than deal with 4 hr wait.
Voter suppression.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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Irish 2.0
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5:17p, 11/3/20
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Ukraine Gas Expert
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In reply to aginlakeway • 5:18p, 11/3/20
AG
Start an official one.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 5:18p, 11/3/20
oldarmy1 said:
One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.
They're banking on GA and the rest of the rust belt
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rgag12
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In reply to PJYoung • 5:18p, 11/3/20
AG
PJYoung said:
This would translate to a slim Biden victory in Florida.



Grasping at straws.gif
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Ukraine Gas Expert • 5:19p, 11/3/20
AG
Ukraine Gas Expert said:
Start an official one.


Makes no difference to me.

May be easier to have a separate one for senate races.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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rgag12
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 5:19p, 11/3/20
AG
CreakinDeacon said:
oldarmy1 said:
One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.
They're banking on GA and the rest of the rust belt


GA is not in play, they have a Better shot at AZ but won't get that either
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dermdoc
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5:20p, 11/3/20
AG
All this stuff about independents breaking for Biden. How many independents are we talking about?

IMHO, it all comes down to turnout of young and minority voters and so far it ain't happening. This is not Obama running for the dems.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 5:20p, 11/3/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.


He's correct, technically. He could win Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, NH, and Arizona. Would be at exactly 270.
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to Ukraine Gas Expert • 5:20p, 11/3/20
AG
Ukraine Gas Expert said:
Start an official one.


This would be good.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to rgag12 • 5:20p, 11/3/20
rgag12 said:
CreakinDeacon said:
oldarmy1 said:
One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.
They're banking on GA and the rest of the rust belt


GA is not in play, they have a Better shot at AZ but won't get that either
I agree. Just stating their straw grasping
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HelloUncleNateFitch
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 5:21p, 11/3/20
CreakinDeacon said:
fake news
Don't underestimate Joe's ability to **** this up.
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Irish 2.0
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5:21p, 11/3/20
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Ukraine Gas Expert
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In reply to aginlakeway • 5:21p, 11/3/20
AG
Yeah that's what I was thinking. So much info going on right now.
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Choobadooba
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In reply to txags92 • 5:21p, 11/3/20
Polls don't predict turnout. What's so hard to understand about that? I'm also not using democrat or republican numbers for polling. Simply the number of voters who have turned out, their party registration, and then polling data from ONLY independents.

Ex. if you had 100 voters, 30 are R's, 25 are D's, and 45 are I's, and 55% of the I's voted D, then Biden would win.
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aginlakeway
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5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
SENATE RACES ONLY

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3153023/replies/57813231
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to HelloUncleNateFitch • 5:22p, 11/3/20
Can look for yourself. It's on their page
https://www.reuters.com/
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Wes97
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5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
That NH projection tweet is not accurate. Based on those early votes from last night only.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
outofstateaggie said:
Ukraine Gas Expert said:
Start an official one.


This would be good.

Done
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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eb93
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In reply to Not a Bot • 5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
Trump won indies last time because folks who didn't like either candidate said, "hell give the businessman a try, he couldn't fo worse than the Clinton-Bush dynasties." Polling earlier this year showed Trump losing big-time to people who don't like both candidates. Trump only focuses on his base. Hasn't done a single thing to bring Indies into the fold. He will pay a price for that tonight.
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oldarmy1
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5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
When this guy predicts a Republican lead you know it's more than this.

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Not a Bot
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 5:22p, 11/3/20
AG
CreakinDeacon said:
Can look for yourself. It's on their page
https://www.reuters.com/


They are not projecting. They said he is leading.
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Charpie
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 5:23p, 11/3/20
AG
That's lead babe, not win
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