It's much easier to fraud "other" voters. Is that their play?

oldarmy1 said:

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One of the Biden surrogates just made a statement that Biden still has a path to victory without FL, OH, TX and PA.

Pray tell.

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The only other route is through subversion. Riots start tomorrow.

Yeah Reuters isn't projecting anything right now. No polls are even closed yet.

So, winning a little slower than before.

blakegrimez said:

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Polls don't predict turnout. What's so hard to understand about that? I'm also not using democrat or republican numbers for polling. Simply the number of voters who have turned out, their party registration, and then polling data from ONLY independents.

Ex. if you had 100 voters, 30 are R's, 25 are D's, and 45 are I's, and 55% of the I's voted D, then Biden would win.

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Right...and what I am saying is that the R advantage is >200,000 right now in actual turnout. With the turnout ahead of 2016 on the R side, and behind 2016 on the D side, there is zero reason to believe a poll suggesting that independents are going to break +10% to Biden when they were +4% to Trump in 2016. That is a 14% swing and there is no basis for believing it is possible in the numbers out there right now.

Excuse me that is Nate predicting a final 2 point win in Florida for Republicans. The indies is larger to Biden but not a huge gain. Once the panhandle workers get off and vote it's over.

Indiana's closed at 6pm EST

richardag said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

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I got your back dawg.

oldarmy1 said:

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Excuse me that is Nate predicting a final 2 point win in Florida for Republicans. The indies is larger to Biden but not a huge gain. Once the panhandle workers get off and vote it's over.

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Nate says it roughly needs to get up to +3.5% voter registration turnout for Republicans to win Florida. Looks like they will fall short of that #.

Prognightmare said:

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richardag said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

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I got your back dawg.

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yikes

Prognightmare said:

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richardag said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

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I got your back dawg.

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Prog!! Wtf, man?? My eyes!!

eb93 said:

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Trump won indies last time because folks who didn't like either candidate said, "hell give the businessman a try, he couldn't fo worse than the Clinton-Bush dynasties." Polling earlier this year showed Trump losing big-time to people who don't like both candidates. Trump only focuses on his base. Hasn't done a single thing to bring Indies into the fold. He will pay a price for that tonight.

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Yeah, tax cuts and bringing jobs back to record employment levels didn't help one damn indy.

txags92 said:

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blakegrimez said:

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Polls don't predict turnout. What's so hard to understand about that? I'm also not using democrat or republican numbers for polling. Simply the number of voters who have turned out, their party registration, and then polling data from ONLY independents.

Ex. if you had 100 voters, 30 are R's, 25 are D's, and 45 are I's, and 55% of the I's voted D, then Biden would win.

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Right...and what I am saying is that the R advantage is >200,000 right now in actual turnout. With the turnout ahead of 2016 on the R side, and behind 2016 on the D side, there is zero reason to believe a poll suggesting that independents are going to break +10% to Biden when they were +4% to Trump in 2016. That is a 14% swing and there is no basis for believing it is possible in the numbers out there right now.

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Why? 2016 was 4 years ago, and a lot can change in 4 years. Are you saying independents won't break for Biden based on Republican turnout being higher?

I'm not saying they will, but there is no reason to believe they won't either. Biden is milquetoast, but Hillary was simply loathsome to many. It could very easily turn out to be that the people who voted "against Hillary" as opposed to "for Trump" end up voting Biden. Only 7% of independents need to be swayed for that 14 point swing.

Prognightmare said:

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richardag said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

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I got your back dawg.

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Is that Lori Lightfoot's mom?

Marco Rubio is an idiot. He means a red wave but sent this when saying to wait for how much more Republicans showed up this year versus 2016.

eb93 said:

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Trump won indies last time because folks who didn't like either candidate said, "hell give the businessman a try, he couldn't fo worse than the Clinton-Bush dynasties." Polling earlier this year showed Trump losing big-time to people who don't like both candidates. Trump only focuses on his base. Hasn't done a single thing to bring Indies into the fold. He will pay a price for that tonight.

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Doesn't explain the exit polls that are heavily in favor of the economy and a strong leader with indies.

Earl_Rudder said:

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Prognightmare said:

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richardag said:

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ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

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I got your back dawg.

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Is that Lori Lightfoot's mom?

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Brenda Snipes the Broward Co election official that DeSantis fired for F'ing up the last election.

I know what the Dem/MSM strategy will be. Lie, lie and lie some more, this is like the Mafia, never admit your guilty, always, always push your narrative.

The whole Dem strategy is to some how make this close enough some how to justify all kinds of new tactics. These guys are desperate, some are real trouble personal trouble with a Trump win, They don't care about the country, they care about their own backsides.

The ruling/elite "predator" class will not go down without attempting to play any and every imaginable dirty trick.

oldarmy1 said:

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Marco Rubio is an idiot. He means a red wave but sent this when saying to wait for how much more Republicans showed up this year versus 2016.

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So glad this man was not the nominee in 2016.

I'm starting to get worried about Florida after those Silver tweets. But then I remember who Silver is and feel a tiny bit better

bwahahaha CNN with the Kentucky is blue right now!

So we went from "Florida is a bloodbath" to worrying about Florida in two hours?

Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

Come on, MAN!

Boy ol' Nate is super confident Indies in FL are going to break way harder for Biden.

blakegrimez said:

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Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

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100% this

ABATTBQ11 said:

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txags92 said:

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blakegrimez said:

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Polls don't predict turnout. What's so hard to understand about that? I'm also not using democrat or republican numbers for polling. Simply the number of voters who have turned out, their party registration, and then polling data from ONLY independents.

Ex. if you had 100 voters, 30 are R's, 25 are D's, and 45 are I's, and 55% of the I's voted D, then Biden would win.

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Right...and what I am saying is that the R advantage is >200,000 right now in actual turnout. With the turnout ahead of 2016 on the R side, and behind 2016 on the D side, there is zero reason to believe a poll suggesting that independents are going to break +10% to Biden when they were +4% to Trump in 2016. That is a 14% swing and there is no basis for believing it is possible in the numbers out there right now.

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Why? 2016 was 4 years ago, and a lot can change in 4 years. Are you saying independents won't break for Biden based on Republican turnout being higher?

I'm not saying they will, but there is no reason to believe they won't either. Biden is milquetoast, but Hillary was simply loathsome to many. It could very easily turn out to be that the people who voted "against Hillary" as opposed to "for Trump" end up voting Biden. Only 7% of independents need to be swayed for that 14 point swing.

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Independents almost never break heavy for a candidate whose platform is that he is "not the other guy". They also typically break towards the side with the enthusiasm advantage. All of the events over the last week or so make is exceptionally clear which side has the enthusiasm advantage and the turnout #s have confirmed it. There are also a lot of "unaffiliated" voters on the R side this year because it was an uncontested primary so we don't have a record of them voting in the primary, whereas the Dems had a big group of candidates in the primary to vote for. I don't see a scenario where Trump underperforms 2016 with independents, much less one where there is a >10% swing to Biden, but I guess we will find out soon enough.

As many have pointed out, when exit polling and ballot counting starts - just like 2016 it will start off looking "bad" for Trump but as the night grinds on it will become a wave of Election Day voting as Trump climbs the ballot count...

blakegrimez said:

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Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

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If Biden really thought he had a shot in FL, his campaign manager wouldn't have come out this morning saying they can win just fine without FL and PA...

Rapier108 said:

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The endless parade of socks and Premium only liberals continues unabated.

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I'm a Trump voting conservative who thinks he is going to lose to Biden tonight.