Toptierag2018 said:
How am I suppose to feel right now?
Cautiously optimistic if you are a Republican, concerned if you are a Democrat
*****OFFICIAL ELECTION DAY THREAD*****
2,698,843 Views |
20889 Replies |
Last: 2 yr ago by Whistle Pig
Cautiously optimistic if you are a Republican, concerned if you are a Democrat
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Tentatively hopeful is where I'm sitting.Toptierag2018 said:
How am I suppose to feel right now?
blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Toptierag2018 said:
How am I suppose to feel right now?
Sounds like your side may have a tough night.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".ANSC Ag said:
CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
CNN reporting that Biden campaign will be trying to get voters out in FL and GA as the numbers aren't looking great. They are "more confident" in the north than in the south
So with polling showing a dem lead and a trump loss, yet R turnout way up and D turnout down, and an obvious gap in the enthusiasm level for the 2 candidates, you are going to stick with the idea that Ind voters are going to swing somewhere in the vicinity of +10% to Biden (they were +4% Trump in 2016) to overcome the numbers we already know? As Biden would say...C'mon man!blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
aginlakeway said:Toptierag2018 said:
How am I suppose to feel right now?
Sounds like your side may have a tough night.
It feels like some football recruiting battles I've followed. Both coaching staffs feel strangely confident going into announcement day. I'm seeing the same from all my outlets. Somethings gotta give.
blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Trump won Florida independent voters by 4% in 2016. Biden would need to win independent voters by approximately 10% or so (or slightly less) to overcome the deficit. A huge swing like that, especially in a year where the Democrat vote seems to be down, just isn't likely. The Democrat voters seem to be staying home. It would be really odd for independent voters to make a big push for Biden when his own party didn't.
blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Ok Nancy Pelosi, whatever you say
How much Copium are you on? Be careful, don't mix it with alcohol.blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Checking in to say I hope the country votes red tonight!
Toptierag2018 said:aginlakeway said:Toptierag2018 said:
How am I suppose to feel right now?
Sounds like your side may have a tough night.
It feels like some football recruiting battles I've followed. Both coaching staffs feel strangely confident going into announcement day. I'm seeing the same from all my outlets. Somethings gotta give.
Look at the messaging from the two sides. A lot of signaling going on that one is very confident and the other is growing increasingly uncomfortable.
The Minnesota Dem attorney general is begging people to vote. The Biden campaign is telling people everything is OK and they can still win even if they don't win in Florida and Pennsylvania. It's pretty clear the Biden camp is losing confidence.
blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Trump got wrecked in Miami Dade in 2016. He's going to be competitive in that county by all accounts. This means he takes the state easily.
Yes, polling. Totally reliable.blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Polling of the state before the election doesn't represent turnout for democrats or republicans. But you can see the crosstabs which show how each party is voting.
For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.
That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.
If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.
For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.
That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.
If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.
And there is real data out there that supports one side right now.
blakegrimez said:
Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.
Cope
Can we get a Trump Meltdown Thread [2020-2020] thread tonight?
Chris Wallace just said Biden folks are "concerned" about Florida and hopeful about Georgia.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
blakegrimez said:
Polling of the state before the election doesn't represent turnout for democrats or republicans. But you can see the crosstabs which show how each party is voting.
For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.
That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.
If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.
It's been covered a few times on this thread, but there's no way Biden is doing that well with independents. His own party is having miserable turnout. It is really difficult to see how he can somehow produce a huge swing in his favor considering Trump won independents in 2016 and DeSantis won them in 2018.
Featured Stories
See All
15:52
9h ago
3.4k
Davis Drama! No. 7 Ags plate nine unanswered to erase six-run deficit
by Mathias Cubillan
Keys to the Game: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 15 Missouri
by Luke Evangelist
Scouting Report: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 15 Missouri
by Tom Schuberth
AggieCrew44
Indiana Head Coaching Search (Buzz mentioned as one of top)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
43
KillerAg21
Indiana Head Coaching Search (Buzz mentioned as one of top)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
13
KillerAg21
Indiana Head Coaching Search (Buzz mentioned as one of top)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
13
aginlakeway
Indiana Head Coaching Search (Buzz mentioned as one of top)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
12
AggieShanks
A&M announces it has installed extended netting at BBP
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
11
Capitol Ag
Indiana Head Coaching Search (Buzz mentioned as one of top)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
11
Jack Squat 83
FINAL from Davis: No. 7 Texas A&M 10, No. 19 Baylor 7 (Aggie Classic)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
9