Toptierag2018 said:

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How am I suppose to feel right now?

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Cautiously optimistic if you are a Republican, concerned if you are a Democrat

Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

FriscoKid said:

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That's Harrisburg PA.

Toptierag2018 said:

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How am I suppose to feel right now?

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Tentatively hopeful is where I'm sitting.

Toptierag2018 said:

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How am I suppose to feel right now?

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Sounds like your side may have a tough night.

His dementia meds wearing off.

ANSC Ag said:

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CNN reporting that Broward co is "boring". Also a judge has ordered USPS to "sweep" for missing ballots. Neither are things you say if you're winning big.

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New code for cheating by Democrats is " "sweep" for missing ballots".

CNN reporting that Biden campaign will be trying to get voters out in FL and GA as the numbers aren't looking great. They are "more confident" in the north than in the south

aginlakeway said:

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Toptierag2018 said:

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How am I suppose to feel right now?

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Sounds like your side may have a tough night.

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It feels like some football recruiting battles I've followed. Both coaching staffs feel strangely confident going into announcement day. I'm seeing the same from all my outlets. Somethings gotta give.

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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Trump won Florida independent voters by 4% in 2016. Biden would need to win independent voters by approximately 10% or so (or slightly less) to overcome the deficit. A huge swing like that, especially in a year where the Democrat vote seems to be down, just isn't likely. The Democrat voters seem to be staying home. It would be really odd for independent voters to make a big push for Biden when his own party didn't.

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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Ok Nancy Pelosi, whatever you say

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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How much Copium are you on? Be careful, don't mix it with alcohol.

blakegrimez said:

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Every year exit polls favor Dems...

Checking in to say I hope the country votes red tonight!

Toptierag2018 said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Toptierag2018 said:

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How am I suppose to feel right now?

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Sounds like your side may have a tough night.

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It feels like some football recruiting battles I've followed. Both coaching staffs feel strangely confident going into announcement day. I'm seeing the same from all my outlets. Somethings gotta give.

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Look at the messaging from the two sides. A lot of signaling going on that one is very confident and the other is growing increasingly uncomfortable.

The Minnesota Dem attorney general is begging people to vote. The Biden campaign is telling people everything is OK and they can still win even if they don't win in Florida and Pennsylvania. It's pretty clear the Biden camp is losing confidence.

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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Trump got wrecked in Miami Dade in 2016. He's going to be competitive in that county by all accounts. This means he takes the state easily.

blakegrimez said:

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How can anyone take Juan seriously?

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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Yes, polling. Totally reliable.

Polling of the state before the election doesn't represent turnout for democrats or republicans. But you can see the crosstabs which show how each party is voting.

For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.

That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.

If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.

And there is real data out there that supports one side right now.

blakegrimez said:

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Trump Florida numbers aren't looking the best IMO. Yes more R's have showed up today than registered dems, but independents are what wins the state, and polling has shown a rather large Biden lead, which currently overtakes the R lead.

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Cope

PJYoung said:

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No way. Very clear that their exit polls are trash. Trump voters arent talking to them

DannyDuberstein said:

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PJYoung said:

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No way. Very clear that their exit polls are trash. Trump voters arent talking to them

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Yeah the more I read the more I agree.

Can we get a Trump Meltdown Thread [2020-2020] thread tonight?

This would translate to a slim Biden victory in Florida.

Chris Wallace just said Biden folks are "concerned" about Florida and hopeful about Georgia.

blakegrimez said:

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Polling of the state before the election doesn't represent turnout for democrats or republicans. But you can see the crosstabs which show how each party is voting.

For instance, 93% of Republicans are voting for Trump, with 6% voting Biden. But with independents, Biden is getting their vote 51% to 37% for Trump. Using that data for the 25% of the electorate that is independents, Biden would have a lead.

That's the problem with assuming how a state will end up when a fourth of the electorate is independents, and Florida is always won with whoever wins independents.

If it was a 50/50 split then Trump would win, but Biden would just need to win them by around 8% to be in the lead right now.

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It's been covered a few times on this thread, but there's no way Biden is doing that well with independents. His own party is having miserable turnout. It is really difficult to see how he can somehow produce a huge swing in his favor considering Trump won independents in 2016 and DeSantis won them in 2018.