Up to 8.4 on 538

FNC just played a clip from Trump's rally in Grand Rapids last night. He asked the crowd who had already voted. Very small response, meaning most at the rally are voting today. Great news.

eb93 said:

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Up to 8.4 on 538

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You are going to be sorely disappointed this evening.

So this is the thread?

aggiehawg said:

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These are the 2016 results in the states I'm watching today.

Iowa
2016 Results:
Trump: 800,983
Clinton: 653,669

Ohio
Trump: 2,841,005
Clinton: 2,394,164

Georgia
Trump: 2,089,104
Clinton: 1,877,963

North Carolina
Trump: 2,362,631
Clinton: 2,189,316

Florida
Trump: 4,617,886
Clinton: 4,504,975

Arizona
Trump: 1,252,401
Clinton: 1,161,167

Pennsylvania
Trump: 2,970,733
Clinton: 2,926,441

Nevada
Trump: 512,058
Clinton: 539,260

Michigan
Trump: 2,279,543
Clinton: 2,268,839

Wisconsin
Trump: 1,405,284
Clinton: 1,382,536

Minnesota
Trump: 1,322,951
Clinton: 1,367,716

New Hampshire
Trump: 345,790
Clinton: 348,526

And watching margins for possible popular vote impact

New York
Trump: 2,819,534
Clinton: 4,556,124

California:
Trump: 4, 483,810
Clinton: 8,753,788

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Good stuff - also watch Indiana - solid red and results will come in early. If margin of victory greater than 2016, great sign for WI and MI.

Any guesses on what the NYT's predicto-meter opens at, and what time it falls to under 50%?

Saint Pablo said:

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So this is the thread?

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Well, it does have 5 stars and is now 5 pages long!

Just got in the truck, flipped on npr.....


They are, obviously, all in on biden winning. Every story was giving biden the highest chance while hedging trumps chances. Anytime time trump was mentioned they included things like not accepting results, lying about voter fraud and other negative monikers.

If trump wins, i look forward to their funeral music playlist tomorrow

McInnis said:

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Any guesses on what the NYT's predicto-meter opens at, and what time it falls to under 50%?

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I think they're not doing it this year...

will25u said:

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How do they get real time vote results?

Posted in another thread, but thought it was appropriate here as well.

McInnis said:

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Any guesses on what the NYT's predicto-meter opens at, and what time it falls to under 50%?

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They are only doing the needle for FL, GA and NC

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

eb93 said:

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Yes, am not a Trump lover. But am a lifelong R.

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Sure you are. I dont like Trump either but NOTHING could ever motivate me to vote for socialist. No way an R would ever consider voting for a modern democrat unless he hit his head.

My Sharona!

Quote:

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Good stuff - also watch Indiana - solid red and results will come in early. If margin of victory greater than 2016, great sign for WI and MI.

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Indiana 2016

Trump: 1.557,866
Clinton: 1,033,126

Thanks! BTW: For the 2016 election results by state look HERE

lunchbox said:

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McInnis said:

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Any guesses on what the NYT's predicto-meter opens at, and what time it falls to under 50%?

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They are only doing the needle for FL, GA and NC

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

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How stupid! That will be over by 11PM Eastern.

cypress-ag said:

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HarryJ33tamu said:

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eb93 said:

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7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?

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You are going to be one disappointed fella tonight

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Why is it always assumed that any new first time voter is voting D? Is that perhaps because they are manufactured votes by the Dems?

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Young voters who make up a large part of first time voters lean progressive depending upon the locality. Don't know how many folks 'assume' that, but some ideas get baked in based on the past and it becomes part of the shared 'talk.' Honestly, haven't looked at the facts to see how well that idea is supported.

There are over 20 million Americans in the 18-24 age group roughly, so however many of those folks registered would make a sizable group if they actually vote. Add in the next oldest age group, and that number increases by a good chunk because that gets into the millennial crowd I think. Over forty something million.

I'm watching Georgia. Georgia will tell a little about how things are going. It's always red. Stays red, and that will be a bulwark. Turns blue or trends that way, that will be a signal. Just my two cents.

Obligatory:

Agthatbuilds said:

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Bigsteve said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Mr. Fahrenheit said:

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Trump better pardon himself quickly

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Sorry, but Trump is a statue that you can't tear down. Enjoy the next 4 years of peace and prosperity in this great country.

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I hope you're right about the "peace" part.....

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Ah yes, nice little country your got going there. Would be shame if anything happened to it

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lol...what?

Trump from +160 to +150 in the last 24 hours at my book.

Florida down to 5k for biden

Saint Pablo said:

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So this is the thread?

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This is The Way

Readzilla said:

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Florida down to 5k for biden

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ttu_85 said:

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eb93 said:

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Yes, am not a Trump lover. But am a lifelong R.

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Sure you are. I dont like Trump either but NOTHING could ever motivate me to vote for socialist. No way an R would ever consider voting for a modern democrat unless he hit his head.

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Interned on hill for R congressman, and then LC for R senator. Managed R congressional campaign in DFW. Worked on R attorney general race, and R lt gov campaign. Worked for R governor for nearly a decade, and on three R presidential campaigns. But yeah, am a socialist, lol.

eb93 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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eb93 said:

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Yes, am not a Trump lover. But am a lifelong R.

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Sure you are. I dont like Trump either but NOTHING could ever motivate me to vote for socialist. No way an R would ever consider voting for a modern democrat unless he hit his head.

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Interned on hill for R congressman, and then LC for R senator. Managed R congressional campaign in DFW. Worked on R attorney general race, and R lt gov campaign. Worked for R governor for nearly a decade, and on three R presidential campaigns. But yeah, am a socialist, lol.

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Who did you vote for in 2020?

rgag12 said:

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Posted in another thread, but thought it was appropriate here as well.

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We will never see a President use Twitter/the internet the way Trump has. Love it or hate it, it's entertainment to the highest degree.