These are the kind of voters I fear the most.

eb93 said:

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Up to 8.4 on 538

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2.3 margin in favor of Biden in the key battleground states. Polls were off 2.8 in favor of Hillary in the key battleground states in 16.

Imagine believing universal suffrage is a good idea.

UncleNateFitch said:

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eb93 said:

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Up to 8.4 on 538

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2.3 margin in favor of Biden in the key battleground states. Polls were off 2.8 in favor of Hillary in the key battleground states in 16.

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Yep, and the polls are just as or more bias as before. Based on this Trump wins again.

These are the primary battlegrounds, but don't take your eyes off Nevada and Minnesota.

And hilarious the pollsters are trying to cover their tracks a bit by finally bringing Trumps numbers up. They are still biased, but they don't want to be left looking like idiots.

This was a clear attempt at voter suppression and it didn't work.

eb93 said:

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ttu_85 said:

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eb93 said:

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Yes, am not a Trump lover. But am a lifelong R.

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Sure you are. I dont like Trump either but NOTHING could ever motivate me to vote for socialist. No way an R would ever consider voting for a modern democrat unless he hit his head.

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Interned on hill for R congressman, and then LC for R senator. Managed R congressional campaign in DFW. Worked on R attorney general race, and R lt gov campaign. Worked for R governor for nearly a decade, and on three R presidential campaigns. But yeah, am a socialist, lol.

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Then why do you sound like a Biden cheerleader? Cherry picking data for a narrative. Maybe you have poor communication skills and are simply misunderstood.

Is it a rule that if you're named Nate you have to go into the polling business and say stupid things?

eb93 said:

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Considering they included the Biden up 17 and Biden up 19 in Michigan polls I'd argue quite the opposite. Mr. Cohn just doesn't like the results

Reality is going to smack Nate in the face soon.

akm91 said:

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Reality is going to smack Nate in the face soon.

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Two circular marks on his chin

eb93 said:

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Yet Biden is desperately campaigning on election day.

Please don't ask why, but I've been listening to ABCs election coverage this morning. If I didn't know any better, I'd say not only will this be a Biden landslide, but that most "not firmly blue" states are a toss-up and strong Democrat leans. They've got 275 EC votes chalked in for Uncle Joe with another 38 likely. Reminiscent of 2016.

Honestly, I just think all the data points to a Biden win, and depending on a couple states could be a landslide against an incumbent comparable to Reagan over Carter. I know that provokes the feelers of the snowflakes and broflakes that we only thought existed on the left, but it is what it is. There is an elitist news bubble that skews left. I agree with that sentiment. But there is now a right wing bubble where joe biden can't string together a sentence (sufficiently lowering the bar for him in the debates) and there is no way Trump loses, and any mention of data that shows the contrary means you are a socialist sympathizer. Tonight will bring the receipts. Talk to y'all after the polls close!

VaultingChemist said:

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Well, that's a SHOCKING turn of events

eb93 said:

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Honestly, I just think all the data points to a Clinton win all the data points to a Biden win, and depending on a couple states could be a landslide against an incumbent comparable to Reagan over Carter. I know that provokes the feelers of the snowflakes and broflakes that we only thought existed on the left, but it is what it is. There is an elitist news bubble that skews left. I agree with that sentiment. But there is now a right wing bubble where joe biden can't string together a sentence (sufficiently lowering the bar for him in the debates) and there is no way Trump loses, and any mention of data that shows the contrary means you are a socialist sympathizer. Tonight will bring the receipts. Talk to y'all after the polls close!

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eb93 said:

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Honestly, I just think all the data points to a Biden win, and depending on a couple states could be a landslide against an incumbent comparable to Reagan over Carter. I know that provokes the feelers of the snowflakes and broflakes that we only thought existed on the left, but it is what it is. There is an elitist news bubble that skews left. I agree with that sentiment. But there is now a right wing bubble where joe biden can't string together a sentence (sufficiently lowering the bar for him in the debates) and there is no way Trump loses, and any mention of data that shows the contrary means you are a socialist sympathizer. Tonight will bring the receipts. Talk to y'all after the polls close!

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Look at the rallies and I'll talk to you after the polls close!

the problem is you have a long work history of getting good data from polling.

polling is now completely broken, if not at this point just used for propaganda

There is going to be quite a wash of red from about 4PM till close.

eb93 said:

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He's right, if you look at the individual states on RCP, the averages are dominated by low-quality, spammy R-friendly polling outlets (Trafalgar, Ras, InsiderAdvantage, Susquehanna) and the cutoffs for what gets included in the averages seem arbitrarily set to intentionally leave out the more friendly Biden polls, even though they're all conducted over approximately the same timeframe. To the extent that the battleground states have "tightened," it's really just these four partisan polling outlets spamming the averages with 11th hour polls and RCP boosting them to the top of the order.

Shouldn't be a surprise though, RCP is a right-leaning outlet and are deliberately gaming the averages to make it look closer than it is to keep R's motivated/drive clicks/manufacture suspense. Expect Biden to generally outperform the averages as currently presented.

Trump 2020

Anti-left, anti-rioters, anti-coomunist, anti-FakeNews 2020

texaglurkerguy said:

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eb93 said:

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He's right, if you look at the individual states on RCP, the averages are dominated by low-quality, spammy R-friendly polling outlets (Trafalgar, Ras, InsiderAdvantage, Susquehanna) and the cutoffs for what gets included in the averages seem arbitrarily set to intentionally leave out the more friendly Biden polls, even though they're all conducted over approximately the same timeframe. To the extent that the battleground states have "tightened," it's really just these four partisan polling outlets spamming the averages and RCP boosting them to the top of the order.

Shouldn't be a surprise though, RCP is a right-leaning outlet and are deliberately gaming the averages to make it look closer than it is to keep R's motivated/drive clicks/manufacture suspense. Expect Biden to generally outperform the averages as currently presented.

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The real vote numbers in Florida are obliterating the polls, particularly the left-leaning ones.

Joe is campaigning on election day in states where he supposedly has a big polling advantage. If his internal numbers and modeling have him up as much as the polls do (and as you claim), he'd be in the basement taking a nap on the couch.

Kind of reminds me of 2016.

ETA, the R spammers are the only ones getting FL right so far.

UncleNateFitch said:

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texaglurkerguy said:

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eb93 said:

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He's right, if you look at the individual states on RCP, the averages are dominated by low-quality, spammy R-friendly polling outlets (Trafalgar, Ras, InsiderAdvantage, Susquehanna) and the cutoffs for what gets included in the averages seem arbitrarily set to intentionally leave out the more friendly Biden polls, even though they're all conducted over approximately the same timeframe. To the extent that the battleground states have "tightened," it's really just these four partisan polling outlets spamming the averages and RCP boosting them to the top of the order.

Shouldn't be a surprise though, RCP is a right-leaning outlet and are deliberately gaming the averages to make it look closer than it is to keep R's motivated/drive clicks/manufacture suspense. Expect Biden to generally outperform the averages as currently presented.

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Absolutely amazing.

You think all the polls showing the race within a few points of the last election are fringe Trump polls, but think all the polls showing the race 5-10 points or more outside of the 2016 are accurate with no bias. After 2016 proved those polls incorrect. With zero evidence, you think this. It's bizarre.

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I don't expect many to believe me, just calling it like I see it. We'll see soon enough.

Sazerac said:

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the problem is you have a long work history of getting good data from polling.

polling is now completely broken, if not at this point just used for propaganda

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This is the point I tried to make to that guy. And the fact he cherry picked his data. Honestly nobody knows. special interest and left wing media have convoluted the process. Polls should be banned or rendered useless due to corruption. Sad state of affairs.

Good lord. We're halfway through the 1st quarter and you guys are arguing about Herbie and Corso picking South Carolina.

If you enjoyed the NYT meter in 2016, Fox will be doing something very similar this year. It starts when the first polls close.

link: https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/probability-dials