*****OFFICIAL ELECTION DAY THREAD*****

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In reply to MaroonStain • 7:48a, 11/3/20
agsalaska
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In reply to BenFiasco14 • 7:49a, 11/3/20
AG
BenFiasco14 said:
Is this the official thread?
Must be. There were about nine last night and STAFF had to pick one.


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FireAg
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 7:50a, 11/3/20
AG
"Fire mission, out!"
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eb93
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7:51a, 11/3/20
AG
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to eb93 • 7:53a, 11/3/20
It'll be okay.
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el_scorcho
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7:53a, 11/3/20
AG
Alright, it looks like this **official** thread came out on top. In!







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gougler08
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In reply to eb93 • 7:53a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?
Isn't he up ~1MM votes in Texas?
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to MaroonStain • 7:54a, 11/3/20
AG
MaroonStain said:
Made $100 bet with co-worker. He said Biden over 310 ECs. I took the under.
Is he still taking bets? I need some new golf clubs.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to eb93 • 7:54a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?

Yep this is just like a game thread. You are going to look really silly at the end of this game.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
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EW2
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7:56a, 11/3/20
S
Just voted in Michigan. Trump 2020.

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ravingfans
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7:57a, 11/3/20
AG
It's 9am ET-- time for sleepy joepedo to call a lid
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1 edit
Well shoot
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In reply to eb93 • 7:58a, 11/3/20
Are you drunk?
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eb93
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In reply to gougler08 • 8:00a, 11/3/20
AG
If you look at primary history alone, he is up. But there are a ton of new voters and general election-only voters where only modeling can give us insight as to how they might vote because we don't require party registration. The new and general election-only voters are the largest bloc. If you look at Ft Bend County in 2018, these are the people that elected a Democratic county judge despite higher R primary turnout. I maintain Trump probably wins Texas, but it won't be by a million votes. More like the Cruz margin. Problem is suburban counties are trending wrong, and so 2020 could be worse than 2018.
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eb93
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In reply to Well shoot • 8:01a, 11/3/20
AG
Well shoot said:
Are you drunk?


No, stone cold sober. Work in the industry. Just don't get all my news from the conservative bubble (Breitbart, Infowars, Fox, lol.)
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HarryJ33tamu
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In reply to eb93 • 8:01a, 11/3/20
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?
You are going to be one disappointed fella tonight
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eb93
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In reply to HarryJ33tamu • 8:01a, 11/3/20
AG
Not rooting, just analyzing. But yes, could be wrong. Will know soon enough.
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to eb93 • 8:02a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?
Pretty much everything you said is just wrong.
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Herknav
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8:03a, 11/3/20
AG
//Voted in ArkLaTex @ 0600am. Stood in line for 2 hours + with fellow Trump supporters for 4 voting machines for all of south Shreveport La. This is voter suppression.//just my thoughts.//
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Tylerjo97
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In reply to eb93 • 8:03a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
Not rooting, just analyzing. But yes, could be wrong. Will know soon enough.
OK

Quote:
eb93 said:

Biden clears 350 in EC. Wins WI, MI, PA, GA, NC, AZ. Also have him winning OH and FL, though could see one or both go to Trump narrowly. Lastly, the turnout dynamics in TX are not good for Trump. Under 30 vote six times what it was 2016. Spikes in liberal college counties if new voters. Suburban counties like Fort Bend, Denton and Collin going wrong way with huge turnout. Hays and Williamson too. Somewhere over 11 million in turnout Biden surpasses Trump. Trump lovers have to pray for low ED turnout today.
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will25u
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8:05a, 11/3/20
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eb93
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In reply to Tylerjo97 • 8:06a, 11/3/20
AG
Yes, am not a Trump lover. But am a lifelong R.
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cypress-ag
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In reply to HarryJ33tamu • 8:06a, 11/3/20
AG
HarryJ33tamu said:
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?
You are going to be one disappointed fella tonight


Why is it always assumed that any new first time voter is voting D? Is that perhaps because they are manufactured votes by the Dems?
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wbt5845
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In reply to eb93 • 8:07a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
Not rooting...

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aggiehawg
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8:07a, 11/3/20
AG
These are the 2016 results in the states I'm watching today.

Iowa
2016 Results:
Trump: 800,983
Clinton: 653,669

Ohio
Trump: 2,841,005
Clinton: 2,394,164

Georgia
Trump: 2,089,104
Clinton: 1,877,963

North Carolina
Trump: 2,362,631
Clinton: 2,189,316

Florida
Trump: 4,617,886
Clinton: 4,504,975

Arizona
Trump: 1,252,401
Clinton: 1,161,167

Pennsylvania
Trump: 2,970,733
Clinton: 2,926,441

Nevada
Trump: 512,058
Clinton: 539,260

Michigan
Trump: 2,279,543
Clinton: 2,268,839

Wisconsin
Trump: 1,405,284
Clinton: 1,382,536

Minnesota
Trump: 1,322,951
Clinton: 1,367,716

New Hampshire
Trump: 345,790
Clinton: 348,526

And watching margins for possible popular vote impact

New York
Trump: 2,819,534
Clinton: 4,556,124

California:
Trump: 4, 483,810
Clinton: 8,753,788
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Tom Kazansky 2012
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In reply to Tylerjo97 • 8:07a, 11/3/20
AG
Tylerjo97 said:
eb93 said:
Not rooting, just analyzing. But yes, could be wrong. Will know soon enough.
OK

Quote:
eb93 said:

Biden clears 350 in EC. Wins WI, MI, PA, GA, NC, AZ. Also have him winning OH and FL, though could see one or both go to Trump narrowly. Lastly, the turnout dynamics in TX are not good for Trump. Under 30 vote six times what it was 2016. Spikes in liberal college counties if new voters. Suburban counties like Fort Bend, Denton and Collin going wrong way with huge turnout. Hays and Williamson too. Somewhere over 11 million in turnout Biden surpasses Trump. Trump lovers have to pray for low ED turnout today.



Eb93, I'm pming you a number to a rehab facility. Quit smoking that stuff man.
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black_ice
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In reply to eb93 • 8:07a, 11/3/20
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?




2016



LOL
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txaggie_08
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In reply to eb93 • 8:07a, 11/3/20
AG
Stop bleeding all over this thread.
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ProgN
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In reply to BenFiasco14 • 8:09a, 11/3/20
BenFiasco14 said:
Is this the official thread?


Please stop using my sock account!
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will25u
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8:10a, 11/3/20
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Barnyard96
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In reply to eb93 • 8:10a, 11/3/20
AG
eb93 said:
Not rooting, just analyzing. But yes, could be wrong. Will know soon enough.
F16 has been analyzing for weeks.
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4stringAg
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8:11a, 11/3/20
AG
Notice where Biden and Harris are going: Philly and Detroit. They aren't seeing the early numbers there high enough to offset Trump voters in the rest of those states. This is a last ditch effort to try to get more to the polls and likely too little too late. That and they are probably going to check in on the cheating machine.
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ttha_aggie_09
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8:11a, 11/3/20
AG
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HelloUncleNateFitch
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In reply to eb93 • 8:11a, 11/3/20
eb93 said:
7.8 pt aggregate disadvantage in national polls is too much to overcome. State polls show Biden wins rust belt except maybe Ohio. State polls show slight edge to Biden in NC and GA. Slightly stronger chance in Arizona. Texas early vote turnout not great for Trump either. Probably still wins by a couple but will see. Florida leans Biden too. Those of us who are Republicans: we are already accused of not believing in science (Covid, masks, climate), are we going to ignore data science too?


6.7 on RCP
Not 7.8
Don't underestimate Joe's ability to **** this up.
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OldArmyBrent
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In reply to EW2 • 8:12a, 11/3/20
AG
Lone Star North said:
Just voted in Michigan. Trump 2020.


I enjoyed this way too much.
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VaultingChemist
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In reply to 4stringAg • 8:13a, 11/3/20
AG
4stringAg said:
Notice where Biden and Harris are going: Philly and Detroit. They aren't seeing the early numbers there high enough to offset Trump voters in the rest of those states. This is a last ditch effort to try to get more to the polls and likely too little too late. That and they are probably going to check in on the cheating machines.
FIFY
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