Fightin TX Aggie said:

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I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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I just don't see how Trump loses anyone that voted for him in 2016. The only way Biden wins at all, let alone in a blowout, is if Trump loses a significant number of voters.

I don't see it happening. Trump gains a lot of voters in 2020. Granted, he might only gain them in states he already won, which makes that irrelevant when it comes to the electoral college.

But I still just don't see it.

Hearing that life losers are simply being paid to stand in voting lines, getting to the front and then circling to back of line just to keep lines even longer and slower.

Anyone else hearing that strategy. Must say I could easily see that occurring.

AgBQ-00 said:

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Hat tip to Mostly Foggy




If their data is being manipulated like this (I think it is likely) you are seeing them activly trying to suppress the vote in real time.

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It goes awn and awn and awn.

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Look at the people who predicted a Trump victory in 2016. They are predicting another Trump victory in 2020.

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This isn't entirely true. A guy that was touted here in 2016 for successfully predicting Trump and every winner since '84 predicts Biden wins.

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A history professor, Allan Lichtman, is one of those rare experts who has correctly predicted all the US elections since 1984.

This year, the race to the White House is between the current US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival and former Vice President Joe Biden.

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Quote:

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"Donald Trump will become the first sitting President since Bill Clinton defeated George H W Bush in 1992 to lose a re-election bid," Lichtman predicted.

As per the expert Historian, this year he observed seven false and six true for the questions in his '13 Keys' model. So, as per the rules of the model which has never been wrong Trump will have to pack up his stuff and leave the White House.

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13 keys to the White House

MassAggie97 said:

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Quote:

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I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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Everybody on F16 is waaaaaaay overconfident. Period.

That said, anything other than a Trump landslide is on the table. There are plenty of ways for Biden to get to 270+, very few for the Donald. 340 is not out of the realm of possibility. If Biden wins all of the rust belt states plus Florida, he's already at 330 even without Iowa, Georgia or NC. He has leads currently in all of those states except for Ohio. Oh yeah, and to the "what about 2016" crowd, Hillary's leads in key swing states had already started to slip fairly obviously by this point.

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This post perfectly sums up your kind on here.

"Everyone that doesn't think like I do on this board is overconfident...but there's no way Trump wins in a landslide but Biden could!"

waitwhat? said:

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Fightin TX Aggie said:

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I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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I just don't see how Trump loses anyone that voted for him in 2016. The only way Biden wins at all, let alone in a blowout, is if Trump loses a significant number of voters.

I don't see it happening. Trump gains a lot of voters in 2020. Granted, he might only gain them in states he already won, which makes that irrelevant when it comes to the electoral college.

But I still just don't see it.

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Tend to agree he doesn't lose much of that vote (well except for people who may have died in the last four years).

I also expect he picks up a lot of the 2016 Johnson voters.

And then his ground game has been registering far more GOP voters than the Dems have been registering. And newly registered voters actually vote in a very high percentage, over 90%.

All signs are positive for a Trump win and maybe a very convincing win. Not saying he wins the popular vote necessarily but I'm watching the margins in certain states and countries. If gets a much larger share of the vote in NY state, California and the Blue counties of Miami/Dade, Palm Beach and Broward then the delegitimacy of the election argument doesn't have as much persuasive force.

Buying Nov 20 JPM $104 calls

On the day of the last presidential election, the stock market was around 16,000 and went down around 800 points. It has never been anyway near that number since then, even with COVID 19.

To be fair, Josh is not partisan. His 2016 prediction was good, https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/644412?unlock=4G8ZGCAPY3MDQIGP

Ags77 said:

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I dont trust the polls at all. I voted Biden, but I predict a close electoral win by trump.

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Why do you hate yourself? Why would you vote for someone who is literally losing their mind in real time who has also been bought and paid for by China?

Seriously, what happened to you?

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...But I still just don't see it...

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Never underestimate the collective stupidity of voters in large numbers. These are the people who will complain about the impact set on their lives after voting in said policies.

Trump will take it with 301 EV's.

Gyles Marrett said:

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Slicer97 said:

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I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.

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Well I've been polled several times this cycle (weird as I've never been polled before). I've said I am voting for Joe every time. Once even lied playing dumb asking if Beto was running because I really like him. Yet I strolled into the polls and voted Trump. I know several conservative friends that did the same....so it does occur quite a bit lying to pollsters.

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I have a friend who says he does this as well. That was the first I'd heard of doing that. I wouldn't have thought to lie (I just don't ever answer polls because they don't allow for any nuance. My answers are always more complicated than the pollsters would like). So I've wondered how prevalent this actually is. I'm like the OP. It's really difficult for me to wrap my head around the confidence in the results coming from Trump's side. I was totally floored in 2016. I didn't vote for Trump then, but I didn't vote for Hillary either. And i was pleased that Hillary lost. This time around, I did vote for Trump. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he wins again. I just am not optimistic.

waitwhat? said:

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Fightin TX Aggie said:

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plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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I just don't see how Trump loses anyone that voted for him in 2016. The only way Biden wins at all, let alone in a blowout, is if Trump loses a significant number of voters.

I don't see it happening. Trump gains a lot of voters in 2020. Granted, he might only gain them in states he already won, which makes that irrelevant when it comes to the electoral college.

But I still just don't see it.

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Obama got almost 70 million votes when he beat McCain. There are way more idiot libs in the country now than there were then.

Trump might win; if so, it'll be another miracle.

I just think the numbers and the motivating hate for Trump can't be overcome. Biden is a worthless pos, maybe the worst candidate in history, and he's corrupt and has severe cognitive issues. But numbers and hate don't care!

I do think Trump will get 65,000,000+, which will match Obama against Romney.

AgBQ-00 said:

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A way to look at these numbers if you can manage to clear away the media smokescreen:

If Biden is really up by the numbers being reported, he would be outperforming Reagan in 1984. He would be outperforming FDR in his last election as he led the nation through the end stages of WWII. Look around you. What do you see as you are out and about? Does it look like that at all? Does the massive divide in this country match those types of numbers?

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Frankly the disconnect looks Soviet.

I hope for the best but expect the worst. I think a large majority of Americans are stupid and/or ignorant...and with covid I have no idea how they'll vote.

Without covid this would have been a 100% Trump slam dunk. Now I see it as anything being possible.

oldarmy1 said:

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Buying Nov 20 JPM $104 calls

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Listen to this. I picked up 10 contracts at 1.40.

Thanks OA

fightingfarmer09 said:

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Who is this guy? Everyone keeps posting his videos, but it sounds like a 15y/o.

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He sounds like a 30 year old dude who is a political nerd to me. Doesn't sound at all like a 15 y/o. But solid rebuttal man.

Cassius said:

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waitwhat? said:

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Fightin TX Aggie said:

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plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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I just don't see how Trump loses anyone that voted for him in 2016. The only way Biden wins at all, let alone in a blowout, is if Trump loses a significant number of voters.

I don't see it happening. Trump gains a lot of voters in 2020. Granted, he might only gain them in states he already won, which makes that irrelevant when it comes to the electoral college.

But I still just don't see it.

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Obama got almost 70 million votes when he beat McCain. There are way more idiot libs in the country now than there were then.

Trump might win; if so, it'll be another miracle.

I just think the numbers and the motivating hate for Trump can't be overcome. Biden is a worthless pos, maybe the worst candidate in history, and he's corrupt and has severe cognitive issues. But numbers and hate don't care!

I do think Trump will get 65,000,000+, which will match Obama against Romney.

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Bolded for emphasis.

There is nowhere near the enthusiasm for Biden that existed for Obama. Any suggestion that Biden will pull anything close to 2008 Obama is, to me, absurd.

But I guess we'll see in about 176 hours...

AgBQ-00 said:

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Science Denier said:

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I DGAF about polls. My concern is cheating. Last year, then cheating was exposed in Detroit when they did the Michigan recount. The votes didn't match the count of voters, and it wasn't that close.

Now with mail in ballots, there is no check. Just go to the voter logs at the end of the day and cast votes for those that didn't vote.

No check. Nothing.

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This is my fear. And is my only hesitation of being confident in this being over. We need everyone to go vote. Will have to overcome unprecedented cheating

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This. This is why I think Trump is counting this election being a base election. He hopes the laptop scandal keeps dem turnout low. Also, ACB getting confirmed and other recent wins turns the GOP base out in such numbers as to overcome the typical voter fraud from the left.

Some people with mild TDS will be mentally broken and go insane nov 3rd.

policywonk98 said:

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They might be right.

But its not correct to call them pollsters and not Biden Partisans.

If the last 4 years has taught us anything its this. No matter the sector of the media. There is very little non-partisan when it comes to Trump. Either you are for or against. And within the media its pretty much become strongly for and strongly against.

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Yup. No such thing as a Biden supporter. It's Trump vs Anti-Trump. This is VERY evident.

Corporal Punishment said:

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Quote:

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Look at the people who predicted a Trump victory in 2016. They are predicting another Trump victory in 2020.

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This isn't entirely true. A guy that was touted here in 2016 for successfully predicting Trump and every winner since '84 predicts Biden wins.

Quote:

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A history professor, Allan Lichtman, is one of those rare experts who has correctly predicted all the US elections since 1984.

This year, the race to the White House is between the current US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival and former Vice President Joe Biden.

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Quote:

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"Donald Trump will become the first sitting President since Bill Clinton defeated George H W Bush in 1992 to lose a re-election bid," Lichtman predicted.

As per the expert Historian, this year he observed seven false and six true for the questions in his '13 Keys' model. So, as per the rules of the model which has never been wrong Trump will have to pack up his stuff and leave the White House.

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13 keys to the White House

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Guy uses simple heuristics for the following categories:

Midterm Gains, No contest during nominations, Incumbent President seeking re-elections, No third party contesting the elections, Strong short term economy, Strong long term economy, Major policy change, Scandals, Foreign/military failure, Foreign/military success, No social unrest, Charisma of the President, Charisma of the challenger.

COVID, the economy, and the protests have galvanized more people into left/right camps for voting. I think this guy is wrong and there's too many things about this year/Trump that are an anomaly to look solely at heuristics like this is a standard election. If he were being honest, he would say as much but he's made his name on his model so he has to stick with it.

One thing that Trump is doing is getting more people in deep red counties to the polls. Very rarely do you see enthusiasm like this in areas that are 'a lock.'

My simple heuristic is this, 'whoever had the stones to vote for Trump in 2016, is still going to vote for him in 2020- all while him gaining ground in minority demographics.'

After all the counting is finished if there is a huge difference in the percentage who voted for biden versus the percentage who voted for Trump when looking at mail in ballots versus vote in person ballots, and biden is the winner I will be certain the election was stolen!

Cassius said:

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waitwhat? said:

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Fightin TX Aggie said:

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plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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I just don't see how Trump loses anyone that voted for him in 2016. The only way Biden wins at all, let alone in a blowout, is if Trump loses a significant number of voters.

I don't see it happening. Trump gains a lot of voters in 2020. Granted, he might only gain them in states he already won, which makes that irrelevant when it comes to the electoral college.

But I still just don't see it.

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Obama got almost 70 million votes when he beat McCain. There are way more idiot libs in the country now than there were then.

Trump might win; if so, it'll be another miracle.

I just think the numbers and the motivating hate for Trump can't be overcome. Biden is a worthless pos, maybe the worst candidate in history, and he's corrupt and has severe cognitive issues. But numbers and hate don't care!

I do think Trump will get 65,000,000+, which will match Obama against Romney.

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What's sad is, you listed out two terrible things. Corrupt and severe cognitive issues.

That doesn't even register on my list of concerns. My only concern is the extreme policies that party wants to bring to the table right now. Couldn't care less about his corruption or cognitive issues. Those won't effect my daily life. But his policies most certainly could.

As for the polls and Biden's "leads". A part of me looks at rallys and excitement for one over the other. I think, there's just no way. They can't be right. And this all could be the media again pushing a narrative, or the polls either polling biased areas and/or conservatives declining to contribute.

Then a part of me ventures over to facebook every now and then and see how differently everyone seems to think than on this board. It doesn't shock me with how brainwashed people are in regards to their hatred for all things Trump(and in many cases the republicans in general ruining the way of life)

I mean, go to facebook and you see just how scared people are of covid. How many still support lockdowns over freedom and think this is mostly Trumps fault. 35 year old teachers my age I knew from college adamantly against going back to school(I think because Trump wants it. They were never that big of a pu*** when I knew them). Republicans are all racists and holding this country back. How many think the universal healthcare, increased minimum wage, easy citizenship for 11 million undocumented people, packing the courts! How great it all sounds. The party over country, win at all costs, msm brainwashing.

I'm hoping it's just a vocal minority spouting it off. But it's nonetheless concerning to see how much differently many see things than myself. Not just a slight difference of opinion. I'm talking about a complete difference in philosophy on life. Safety over freedom.

Already Voted Trump....

amercer said:

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Article in the Washington Post this morning about shy Biden voters that you guys will really love.

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I actually think there are some.

fightingfarmer09 said:

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amercer said:

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Article in the Washington Post this morning about shy Biden voters that you guys will really love.

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I actually think there are some.

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I agree, the political climate is just too hostile. But its a lower level of repercussion Biden voters are fearing. If you come out as a Biden supporter you might catch some comments and unwanted political discussions, not get fired/targeted at work.

Fightin TX Aggie said:

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I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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Were you alive in 2016?

soggybottomboy said:

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To be fair, Josh is not partisan. His 2016 prediction was good, https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/644412?unlock=4G8ZGCAPY3MDQIGP

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Didn't he have Clinton at 375?

Fightin TX Aggie said:

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I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.

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CNN back in 2016 also did an Electoral College breakdown in which they predicted which States go to Hilary.

They were of course as wrong just as their current "journalistic reporting".

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Then a part of me ventures over to facebook every now and then and see how differently everyone seems to think than on this board. It doesn't shock me with how brainwashed people are in regards to their hatred for all things Trump(and in many cases the republicans in general ruining the way of life)

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Its not this board. The evidence is the scale of the Trump support in solid BLUE states like New York and even California, as well as the swing states. If it was just this board would ignore it ---- but the Trump sentiment is 50 state wide and very big --that hints at popular vote win possibility numbers.

He predicted a Florida win for Biden. Looking more and more unlikely.

Fightin TX Aggie said:

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I have seen the revelation of just some of the cheating going on here in Texas, but if Trump loses Texas that will reveal just the shear amount of it that took place. Just the fact they are saying it is close is enough for me to doubt Trump wins. I have felt all along though that it was going to be almost impossible to counteract the fraud. Disgusting really.