Biden wins 340 to 198 (so says an expert)

10,445 Views | 109 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by 94chem
Barnyard96
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
I don't get why everyone says this. I guess this assumes Ohio is in the bag for Trump?
I think it's more accurate to say Trump HAS TO get Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270. Biden doesn't. He has several more pathways other than FL and PA, including if he loses Ohio.

Yes we believe that OH, TX, GA, FL, NC, AZ, IA are going Trump.

The election goes through PA. Who you got?
HelloUncleNateFitch
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
I don't get why everyone says this. I guess this assumes Ohio is in the bag for Trump?
I think it's more accurate to say Trump HAS TO get Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270. Biden doesn't. He has several more pathways other than FL and PA, including if he loses Ohio.



Yes, Ohio is in the bag for Trump.
oldarmy1
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No change in prediction. Second largest electoral college victory in history....for Trump.
HumbleAg04
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People are dumb. Blue wave in 2020.
aggie93
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First off Germans, I posted this earlier.

That said my takeaway was this gave me optimism because of how it was written, here was my explanation:

NJ and Josh are generally good at calling balls and strikes but this article shows the Dems and press only want to see what they want to see.


Essentially his premise for why Biden is going to win big is he is visiting Georgia and Kamala is visiting Texas while Trump visits The Villages in FL, Iowa, Nebraska for the 1 vote, and Pence did a visit in SC. What he completely fails to mention is those are just a few of MANY visits Trump is taking. He is doing about 4 events a day or more and Pence is also doing multiple events. They are spending most of their time in PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Minnesota. He put some real time in Nevada as well. Now you could say he should spend ALL of his time in those swing states I suppose but Trump has tremendous bandwidth and energy while Biden and Harris are barely doing anything. He also failed to mention Biden doing events in Swing States primarily.

It amazes me how these folks either think we are all too stupid to notice or they are just that blind themselves.
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aginlakeway
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
I don't get why everyone says this. I guess this assumes Ohio is in the bag for Trump?
I think it's more accurate to say Trump HAS TO get Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270. Biden doesn't. He has several more pathways other than FL and PA, including if he loses Ohio.


So what is your opinion on Biden campaigning so little away from home this week? Prevent defense? He has it won?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Spudman
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I think the surge in Early Voting is, potentially, causing even more chaos with polling. I early voted for the first time ever and so have many of my inner circle (all Trumpers).
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Josh also mentioned in a podcast he had Hillary at 375.
Was that her BAC?
ETFan
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Slicer97 said:

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
And people made fun of the scream-cry-liberal-girl from 2016.

We'll be fine. Get a dog. Etc.
Trek Strategy
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AgBQ-00 said:

Hat tip to Mostly Foggy




If their data is being manipulated like this (I think it is likely) you are seeing them activly trying to suppress the vote in real time.
That guy is really stressed.
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213 Grove
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Slicer97 said:

I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
This. My wife got polled the other day and she said she's voting for Kanye.
LatinAggie1997
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Geez, they have that much cheating already set up to make specific predictions.
NoahAg
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213 Grove said:

Slicer97 said:

I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
This. My wife got polled the other day and she said she's voting for Kanye.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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She got poled by Kanye?
beerad12man
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
Everybody on F16 is waaaaaaay overconfident. Period.

That said, anything other than a Trump landslide is on the table. There are plenty of ways for Biden to get to 270+, very few for the Donald. 340 is not out of the realm of possibility. If Biden wins all of the rust belt states plus Florida, he's already at 330 even without Iowa, Georgia or NC. He has leads currently in all of those states except for Ohio. Oh yeah, and to the "what about 2016" crowd, Hillary's leads in key swing states had already started to slip fairly obviously by this point.
Yes, 340 is out of the realm of possible for Biden. Perhaps the msm is waaaaay overconfident. Period.
Philip J Fry
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I wanted to thank the OP for reminding us about what every single news outlet has been saying for months.
Keegan99
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
I don't get why everyone says this. I guess this assumes Ohio is in the bag for Trump?
I think it's more accurate to say Trump HAS TO get Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270. Biden doesn't. He has several more pathways other than FL and PA, including if he loses Ohio.



Trump doesn't need PA.

He still gets 270 if he keeps the 2016 map and takes any ONE of MI, WI, and PA.

Biden needs to either run the table in the the Midwest OR flip another state.


AgBQ-00
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A way to look at these numbers if you can manage to clear away the media smokescreen:

If Biden is really up by the numbers being reported, he would be outperforming Reagan in 1984. He would be outperforming FDR in his last election as he led the nation through the end stages of WWII. Look around you. What do you see as you are out and about? Does it look like that at all? Does the massive divide in this country match those types of numbers?
AgBQ-00
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Yes his incredulity at the data there is quite strong.
fooz
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Still believing the polls. Yall libs are funny.

Trump by a landslide. Bookmark this.
FrioAg 00
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dustin999 said:

Here's what I don't understand though. Recent polls show Trump up in PA. Sure, 538 has the election odds at 12%, but if you just use their interactive map and give Trump PA, the election swings from 12% odds for Trump to 69% odds for Trump:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

I guess they're really assuming PA will go Biden which doesn't seem to match what I've read as of late.


To take it further - leave the truly undecided states out of it (Penn, AZ, Mich, Wisc, NV)

Give Biden credit for Co, NH, MN - almost sure things

Give Trump credit for TX, NC, Ohio, FL, GA and the 2nd NE vote - almost sure things

... and even 538 gives Trump a 46% shot at winning in that scenario. That's the scenario I actually feel like we're actually in - a coin flip.

deskdrawer
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oldarmy1 said:

No change in prediction. Second largest electoral college victory in history....for Trump.
This. Don't let these "polls" sway you from not voting for President Trump.

This is the same propaganda campaign the liberal media did for hillary back in 2016. Except this time they have a worse candidate who is even lazier and more incompetent than hillary. But yet the same pollsters who predicted a hillary landslide are predicting as big if not bigger victory for biden.

Unfortunately there are Americans who are falling for this nonsense again.

President Trump will be re-elected and he will win by a greater margin than in 2016.

Look at the people who predicted a Trump victory in 2016. They are predicting another Trump victory in 2020. Those are the people you should be listening to. Not the liberal media that was dead ass wrong in 2016 and are predicting the same thing in 2020.

Jimmy Conway
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Wall Street is pretty confident in a Biden win at this point fwiw.
Ags77
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I dont trust the polls at all. I voted Biden, but I predict a close electoral win by trump.
Gigem
aginlakeway
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Jimmy Conway said:

Wall Street is pretty confident in a Biden win at this point fwiw.

Based on what? And what do you mean by Wall Street?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Rapier108
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Jimmy Conway said:

Wall Street is pretty confident in a Biden win at this point fwiw.
Wall Street was 100% sure of a Hillary win in 2016. They want the crony capitalism to continue with the government sending them trillions in printed money.

Remember how futures dropped 800 points when it became increasingly likely Trump was going to win?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
aggiehawg
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Jimmy Conway said:

Wall Street is pretty confident in a Biden win at this point fwiw.
Confident? No they are fearful of a Biden win.
End Of Message
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Inaccurate polling to suppress the vote
texaglurkerguy
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Realistically, if Trump wins WI or MI in all likelihood he's winning PA as well. Biden's polling leads in MI and WI at this point could withstand another 2016 level polling error (and those two were the worst polling misses of the entire slate of battlegrounds) and still win him both. In PA it's narrower.

Sazerac
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i'd put NC and MN in the toss-ups

Science Denier
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I DGAF about polls. My concern is cheating. Last year, then cheating was exposed in Detroit when they did the Michigan recount. The votes didn't match the count of voters, and it wasn't that close.

Now with mail in ballots, there is no check. Just go to the voter logs at the end of the day and cast votes for those that didn't vote.

No check. Nothing.
Faustus
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NoahAg said:

213 Grove said:

Slicer97 said:

I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
This. My wife got polled the other day and she said she's voting for Kanye.

Chuckle.
30wedge
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This Josh dude, is he confident enough on the 340 to bet on it?
AgBQ-00
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Science Denier said:

I DGAF about polls. My concern is cheating. Last year, then cheating was exposed in Detroit when they did the Michigan recount. The votes didn't match the count of voters, and it wasn't that close.

Now with mail in ballots, there is no check. Just go to the voter logs at the end of the day and cast votes for those that didn't vote.

No check. Nothing.
This is my fear. And is my only hesitation of being confident in this being over. We need everyone to go vote. Will have to overcome unprecedented cheating
FrioAg 00
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Jimmy Conway said:

Wall Street is pretty confident in a Biden win at this point fwiw.


Wall Street could very well be pricing in that another stimulus bill will never gets passed, which is most likely scenario under a Trump Re-election.

If Biden is elected the stimulus will get bigger, as will inflation, which means the stock market should be going up.
 
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