Biden wins 340 to 198 (so says an expert)

7,942 Views | 110 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by 94chem
Fightin TX Aggie
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I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
The Shank Ag
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Ok cool, MAGA
Artorias
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Fightin TX Aggie said:



I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
so same as they did in 2016...
Nitro Power
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If someone gave me the OU on that prediction, I would be a very wealthy wealthy man. Zero....and I mean zero chance the score ends up 340+ for Hiden.
YouBet
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You won't see me overconfident. I think Biden wins and people need to get their head in that frame of mind so you aren't throwing your chardonnay glasses against the wall in shock.
Slicer97
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I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
dustin999
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YouBet said:

You won't see me overconfident. I think Biden wins and people need to get their head in that frame of mind so you aren't throwing your chardonnay glasses against the wall in shock.
Exactly. Hope for the best, expect the worst.
GeorgiAg
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Not buying it. We're doing 2016 all over again. Polls are wrong.
rwpag71
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Looks like they are all singing from the same hymnal. 538 has almost the same numbers.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Josh also mentioned in a podcast he had Hillary at 375.
law-apt-3g
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I ain't even skeered
Nitro Power
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Josh also mentioned in a podcast he had Hillary at 375.
Just a bit outside
Rockdoc
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Voter suppression is all they have at this point.
policywonk98
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They might be right.

But its not correct to call them pollsters and not Biden Partisans.

If the last 4 years has taught us anything its this. No matter the sector of the media. There is very little non-partisan when it comes to Trump. Either you are for or against. And within the media its pretty much become strongly for and strongly against.
beerad12man
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policywonk98 said:

They might be right.

But its not correct to call them pollsters and not Biden Partisans.

If the last 4 years has taught us anything its this. No matter the sector of the media. There is very little non-partisan when it comes to Trump. Either you are for or against. And within the media its pretty much become strongly for and strongly against.
titan
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S
YouBet said:

You won't see me overconfident. I think Biden wins and people need to get their head in that frame of mind so you aren't throwing your chardonnay glasses against the wall in shock.
I don't think Biden wins at all, but he may very well be made to win, if you catch the distinction. Look at Tarrant and Harris County and the possible shenanigans there. And the Project Veritas expose'. Now imagine it in states that were Dem for decades.

The media accountable thread is exploring the movement that will be necessary either way.

FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
AgBQ-00
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Hat tip to Mostly Foggy




If their data is being manipulated like this (I think it is likely) you are seeing them activly trying to suppress the vote in real time.
barnyard1996
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Article claims Texas is in play.
UncleNateFitch
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Fightin TX Aggie said:



I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
Don't listen to the noise.

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
aggiedata
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Memories

fightingfarmer09
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Who is this guy? Everyone keeps posting his videos, but it sounds like a 15y/o.
YouBet
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titan said:

YouBet said:

You won't see me overconfident. I think Biden wins and people need to get their head in that frame of mind so you aren't throwing your chardonnay glasses against the wall in shock.
I don't think Biden wins at all, but he may very well be made to win, if you catch the distinction. Look at Tarrant and Harris County and the possible shenanigans there. And the Project Veritas expose'. Now imagine it in states that were Dem for decades.

The media accountable thread is exploring the movement that will be necessary either way.


I think the actual winner is a toss-up and too close to call. And Biden will be made to win as you say just to make sure.
Gyles Marrett
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Slicer97 said:

I thnk Trump supporters are banking on the fact that a lot of conservatives either don't respond to polls or don't answer them truthfully.

I will say that if Biden wins by that large of a margin, we're finished as a republic.
Well I've been polled several times this cycle (weird as I've never been polled before). I've said I am voting for Joe every time. Once even lied playing dumb asking if Beto was running because I really like him. Yet I strolled into the polls and voted Trump. I know several conservative friends that did the same....so it does occur quite a bit lying to pollsters.
JB99
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Here's a couple data points to noodle on and why you should b very very skeptical of really any polls. Especially those that differ greatly from 2016.

1. Pollsters have about a 5 to 10% answer rate on calls.

2. Republicans are 5 times less likely to answer a pollsters call vs. a democrat.

Noodle on those two data points and consider how many Trump supporters these pollsters are actually reaching.
MassAggie97
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Quote:

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
Everybody on F16 is waaaaaaay overconfident. Period.

That said, anything other than a Trump landslide is on the table. There are plenty of ways for Biden to get to 270+, very few for the Donald. 340 is not out of the realm of possibility. If Biden wins all of the rust belt states plus Florida, he's already at 330 even without Iowa, Georgia or NC. He has leads currently in all of those states except for Ohio. Oh yeah, and to the "what about 2016" crowd, Hillary's leads in key swing states had already started to slip fairly obviously by this point.
Cromagnum
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Fightin TX Aggie
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amercer
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Article in the Washington Post this morning about shy Biden voters that you guys will really love.
dustin999
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Here's what I don't understand though. Recent polls show Trump up in PA. Sure, 538 has the election odds at 12%, but if you just use their interactive map and give Trump PA, the election swings from 12% odds for Trump to 69% odds for Trump:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

I guess they're really assuming PA will go Biden which doesn't seem to match what I've read as of late.
JB99
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MassAggie97 said:


Quote:

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.
Everybody on F16 is waaaaaaay overconfident. Period.

That said, anything other than a Trump landslide is on the table. There are plenty of ways for Biden to get to 270+, very few for the Donald. 340 is not out of the realm of possibility. If Biden wins all of the rust belt states plus Florida, he's already at 330 even without Iowa, Georgia or NC. He has leads currently in all of those states except for Ohio. Oh yeah, and to the "what about 2016" crowd, Hillary's leads in key swing states had already started to slip fairly obviously by this point.


"Leads" = **** polls

If you follow the early voting turnout. Rs are outperforming in most swing states.
AgBQ-00
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As far as I know he is a guy who is looking onto the background data of all the polls to try and see if any of it makes sense. Beyond that I don't know. But I think he makes a ton of sense when looking at the data.
HoustonAggie37713
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Fightin TX Aggie said:



I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

I plan to vote Trump. I'm just worried some of you are waaaaaaay overconfident.


The pollsters are Biden partisans. Circular argument is circular.
MassAggie97
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Quote:

Whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins the election.
I don't get why everyone says this. I guess this assumes Ohio is in the bag for Trump?
I think it's more accurate to say Trump HAS TO get Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270. Biden doesn't. He has several more pathways other than FL and PA, including if he loses Ohio.
Iraq2xVeteran
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I want President Donald Trump to win, but Joe Biden has many more paths to 270 votes because of a built-in advantage in electoral votes for Democrats, such as the 55 electoral votes from California. Even if Trump keeps Arizona, Texas, and Georgia red, Biden can still reach 348 electoral votes by winning all of the other swing states. Trump will not only need to defend these three traditionally solid GOP states that have became swing states, but also win a few more swing states.
yawny06
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Quote:

I know some of you guys follow this much closer than I do, but every polling expert I have seen predicts a Biden win. The only people I see predicting a Trump win are Trump partisans.

Yes, and all the people predicting a Biden are completely objective and non-partisan.
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