If I remember correctly some of the strangeness is the make-up of materials in the moon's mantle. While there is similarity between Earth and the moon in the crusts of each, the mantles are completely different. Which should be more alike if they are mixing from the impact. Also, the crust thickness difference is quite pronounced between the far side and near side of the moon. You would expect an object formed from an accretion disc to be more symmetrical.

AgBQ-00 said:

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Our moon is very much an outlier oddity when it comes to moons. It has been said that there is more science to suggest that our moon should not exist than there is that it should exist as it does. It is a really odd moon.

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The existence of the solar eclipse is really quite amazing. And like was alluded to, they won't always exist as the distance between Earth and moon is slowly increasing.

This is a great discussion.

AgBQ-00 said:

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If I remember correctly some of the strangeness is the make-up of materials in the moon's mantle. While there is similarity between Earth and the moon in the crusts of each, the mantles are completely different. Which should be more alike if they are mixing from the impact. Also, the crust thickness difference is quite pronounced between the far side and near side of the moon. You would expect an object formed from an accretion disc to be more symmetrical.

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The reason for the crust thickness difference is because the moon is tidally locked to the earth.

This creates a gravity gradient across the moon and the moon's core is closer to the near side than it is the far side making it easier for magma to flow out from meteor impacts on the near side than it is on the far side. This creates the "seas" on the near side.

We’re building Launch Complex 36B at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to support New Glenn’s high-cadence launch operations and infrastructure resiliency. 🚀 Read more: https://t.co/BzTHt5YGmQ pic.twitter.com/CiLffraAN1

— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) August 12, 2026

Need more!

"Infrastructure resiliency" = "we blew the last one to pieces."

Thx, great short explanation. And tidal locking for large moons is actually more common than not I learned at some point in the past year I think.

Mathguy64 said:

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"Infrastructure resiliency" = "we blew the last one to pieces."

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aka "how to blow up another rocket without blowing up the whole launch complex".

Dang, SPCX up around 10 percent today, pushing to IPO $150 price seemingly. More lock releases coming of course but I have to wonder if more institutional funds/investors had to pick some up. Kicking myself for not buying more right now but I have to assume a pull back is coming again.

Saw a Google notice headline ink my phone that Morgan Stanley has them price targeted at $600.

The AI revenue mentioned in yesterday's X post could be driving that.

Have GOT to get over this current unemployment spell to free the funds to buy.

nortex97 said:

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Dang, SPCX up around 10 percent today, pushing to IPO $150 price seemingly. More lock releases coming of course but I have to wonder if more institutional funds/investors had to pick some up. Kicking myself for not buying more right now but I have to assume a pull back is coming again.

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Yeah I was hoping to get in on some shares under $100. There's 2 more unlocks coming in the next few months (thru December)

nortex97 said:

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Dang, SPCX up around 10 percent today, pushing to IPO $150 price seemingly. More lock releases coming of course but I have to wonder if more institutional funds/investors had to pick some up. Kicking myself for not buying more right now but I have to assume a pull back is coming again.

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IPO price was $135. Were the locks in both directions? Were insider shareholders prohibited from buying more until after the unlock? Seems like the price took off heading back up when the first unlock happened, which is the opposite of what everybody was expecting. Just wondering if it is insiders adding to their stake instead of selling.

Grok 4.6 was released at a frontier level of capability at a substantial discount in cost and they released Grok Bot yesterday. "Not dead yet" on model making/capturing more than compute leases.

Main index (Nasdaq-100) only has to apply a weighting of the market cap at 3x the free float percentage. At IPO SPCX had a free float of ~5% (15% of market cap), so they only had to buy an equivalent weighting for a $300 billion company at the time of inclusion relative to a total market cap of $2T. When the lock ups released a week ago it bumped the free float to 11%, or a weighting of 33%. There's additional tranches released that increase free float by 2.42% Aug 21, Sept 10, 25th, Oct 12, 26 and finally another large tranche released post earnings that will bring cumulative float to >33% and 100% weighting in the index.

In other words there's going to be buying pressure into late October for the index inclusion.

Absolute Pareto dominance for Grok and Cursor even after the OpenAI price cuts: pic.twitter.com/YQs2rQ6E7p

— Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) August 12, 2026

Introducing Grok Bot, now in early beta.

Bots are AI teammates that do real work for you. They sign in to your tools, use them just like you do, and come back with finished work. pic.twitter.com/uyfA97yo98

— Grok Bot (@bot) August 11, 2026

Thx, interesting take. I just presume you are correct as it sounds like you know this stuff. I do think there will be continued volatility over the next year-two years though due to both, well, rocket challenges (starship) and pressure over capex vs. margins/revenue. I'm just speculating though, of course.

At some point they are going to have to announce a big spend/project for the off shore rigs and 'stage zero' stuff, which can't be hidden/ignored silently as a public company. Maybe they plan to somehow build that at the new Pecan Island spot in Louisiana, I dunno. It would seem like going with an outfit that specializes in off shore rigs would make a lot more sense (as they were doing before). They will need a lot of engineers on that project too.

They've also made no material (public) progress on HLS in well over a year. Sniping aside, this is becoming problematic for Isaacman and the administration's timeline/goals for Artemis in 2028. Once they do orbital and catch, re-use, orbital refueling, there will need to be a lot of engineering and manpower resources poured into that project.

Then, the orbital AI plans. Those compute manufacturing Terrafab figures have put out mean they need well north of 1000 starship launches a year to put it all 'up there' as soon as 2028. A lot of headaches to come.

Inclusion rules for weighting.

Lock up release schedule.

7% of lock up release translates to ~2.42%. People saying that insider lock up exits would substantially drop stock price don't understand how much internal belief in SpaceX there is.

nortex97 said:

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Thx, interesting take. I just presume you are correct as it sounds like you know this stuff. I do think there will be continued volatility over the next year-two years though due to both, well, rocket challenges (starship) and pressure over capex vs. margins/revenue. I'm just speculating though, of course.

At some point they are going to have to announce a big spend/project for the off shore rigs and 'stage zero' stuff, which can't be hidden/ignored silently as a public company. Maybe they plan to somehow build that at the new Pecan Island spot in Louisiana, I dunno. It would seem like going with an outfit that specializes in off shore rigs would make a lot more sense (as they were doing before). They will need a lot of engineers on that project too.

They've also made no material (public) progress on HLS in well over a year. Sniping aside, this is becoming problematic for Isaacman and the administration's timeline/goals for Artemis in 2028. Once they do orbital and catch, re-use, orbital refueling, there will need to be a lot of engineering and manpower resources poured into that project.

Then, the orbital AI plans. Those compute manufacturing Terrafab figures have put out mean they need well north of 1000 starship launches a year to put it all 'up there' as soon as 2028. A lot of headaches to come.

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They have made a lot of behind the scenes progress checking off steps for HLS. The main thing holding it up is getting it into orbit for maneuvering and long term coast, and refueling, both of which are waiting for a successful orbital launch and recovery by starship, which will hopefully happen in a few weeks.

I suspect you also are correct, we just don't have any data as to the resources committed to this, or progress made, or the engineering team/steps taken. We have had some weird 'test article' nose cones though, so maybe that is plausibly related.

Who knows though, maybe they somehow send an Optimus-crewed HLS to the lunar surface and back next year? The testing could be highly entertaining once we get to orbital fuel transfer/orbit etc.

Moonbase Alpha will be so cool.

And we want to make it so that anyone can go to the Moon if they want. https://t.co/JLPbe1AmDT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 11, 2026

How are we going to protect all of that infrastructure from meteors?

BMach said:

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How are we going to protect all of that infrastructure from meteors?

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"with frickin lasers"

a troop of Liberty Prime robots with bats.

What does a moon base get us?

Barnyard96 said:

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What does a moon base get us?

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The ultimate Insta selfie location? Imagine what hogans will look like with 1/6th of normal gravity.

Ultimate Dad flex would be to moon from the moon.

Normalizing space travel for the "average" person. Base of operations for the pit stop to Mars that the Nasa plans call for. Truly gets us into the infancy of expanding exploration, much like in the age of exploration across oceans.

Barnyard96 said:

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Ultimate Dad flex would be to moon from the moon.

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I'd feel young again taking a piss in that gravity situation.

NEW: Spanish Olympic skateboarder Danny León pulled off a perfectly timed trick during a solar eclipse, soaring through the air as the Moon passed in front of the Sun. León shared the spectacular stunt, calling it “the move of his life.” pic.twitter.com/Elvvxsx89z

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 13, 2026

NASA's GOES-19 weather satellite captured the shadow of today's total solar eclipse moving across Earth pic.twitter.com/fifH1GQnMg

— Latest in space (@latestinspace) August 12, 2026

Barnyard96 said:

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What does a moon base get us?

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A lot of manufacturing processes use a vacuum to maintain insanely high precision. You could potentially build a better/cheaper facility on the moon than vacuum chambers on earth.

That is awesome

Aside from scientific exploration, there's also a large quantity of very valuable resources there.

Better, maybe. I don't know about cheaper - logistics costs seem kind of insane.

SenorLiebre said:

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Better, maybe. I don't know about cheaper - logistics costs seem kind of insane.

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Depends on what you are building it for. If you want to put something into earth orbit, it is easier and cheaper to do it from earth. If you want to put things into deeper space or send them to Mars, it is much easier to build it with resources on the moon and launch from there to minimize the mass you have to launch from earth.

SenorLiebre said:

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Better, maybe. I don't know about cheaper - logistics costs seem kind of insane.

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Depends on where the logistics train gets to. Look at the cost to Leo now vs 20 years ago. If we can get an established operation base with a heavy lift return vehicle, the logistics change...a lot.

What happens first, a Moon base or an Aggie football natty?

Barnyard96 said:

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What happens first, a Moon base or an Aggie football natty?

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My death... RIP will25u(BAS)