Yeah, that is a good piece, but not a lot of fun to read through; at least it's down a couple of meters from the height on Tuesday last week? If the upstream capacity has to be released now though there's not a lot of margin...according to my non-dam expert opinion.

Quote:

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Chinese authorities have already evacuated 38 million people downriver. The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday. Yet more rain is predicted, and if smaller, older dams upriver from Three Gorges overflow or fail, then the pressure on the main dam could quickly overwhelm either its capacity or even its structural integrity.

While an outright failure of the dam may not be the primary danger, nonetheless its geopolitical consequences are staggering to contemplate. It would be a black swan of epic proportions, China's Chernobyl moment. A tsunami-like wave from a breach in the Three Gorges Dam could wipe out millions of acres of farmland right before the autumn harvest, possibly leading to famine-like conditions. As it is also the world's largest hydroelectric power station, a failure would lead to huge power outages. Low-lying cities of millions along the Yangtze's banks cities could become uninhabitable and the death toll could be staggering.

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Thanks for the link 74OA.

China is also experiencing multiple new virus outbreaks. I wonder how much of that is related to the millions of displaced people from the flooding?

The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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In the unlikely event it does fail catastrophically, i cant think of a manmade disaster ever that would come close.

cbr said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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In the unlikely event it does fail catastrophically, i cant think of a manmade disaster ever that would come close.

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Yeah you can: WWI and WWII. Though the death toll from this may exceed both of them combined, which is a pretty frightening concept.

TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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Engineering? Or shoddy construction?

aggiehawg said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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Engineering? Or shoddy construction?

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From what I have read, the concrete blocks used in construction were floated and not anchored below ground. I am not an engineer, but a chinese engineer that was critical of the design states that the design itself was majorly flawed for that reason.

aggiehawg said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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Engineering? Or shoddy construction?

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1. Unclear. It hasn't failed, so it's speculative to assess the cause of a hypothetical failure.

2. When some civil structure fails, it's pretty common to call it an "engineering failure" whether the cause was design, construction, operation, etc.

Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

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at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

if the CCP is saying it's already been deformed, doesn't that mean it's pretty ****ed up as is

Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

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at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

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What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

I don't think it's going to fail. If it does, I would almost be convinced we are in the apocalpyse.

Ags4DaWin said:

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aggiehawg said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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The failure of that dam would be one of the greatest engineering disasters of perhaps the last century? Comparisons to Chernobyl might be an understatement.

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Engineering? Or shoddy construction?

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From what I have read, the concrete blocks used in construction were floated and not anchored below ground. I am not an engineer, but a chinese engineer that was critical of the design states that the design itself was majorly flawed for that reason.

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the point of a gravity design as i understand it is that every section can stand alone and its weight alone can withstand the water pressure.... so it should be pretty bullet proof. however, apparently they are prone to floatation or cracking during the decades long curing process or that if they are not embedded in properly structural bedrock they can fail that way... so if that's true, who knows.

In regard to dams upstream potentially being an option to help the situation... they already have a ton of stuff built upstream but it hasn't seen much maintenance or upkeep etc. since most were built in the 50's. I believe I read that in the National Review article.

Here's more detail on the dam's construction: Three Gorges

DirtyMikesBoys said:

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In regard to dams upstream potentially being an option to help the situation... they already have a ton of stuff built upstream but it hasn't seen much maintenance or upkeep etc. since most were built in the 50's. I believe I read that in the National Review article.

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98,000 DAMS

UncleNateFitch said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

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at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

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What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

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I don't know but even if it goes over 175, that doesn't necessarily mean the dam will fail. They should have a spillway with the top at an elevation of 175m. If the water goes over that, they have no control, it just spills over until enough drains out to get the level back down to 175m. So, everything should be designed with that in mind.

UncleNateFitch said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

---

at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

---

What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

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According to that link, its back to 163.3 meters now. flow in and out more or less balanced at 40,000 m^3/sec

Quote:

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40,000 m^3/sec

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Gold Star ntxVol said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

---

at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

---

What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

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I don't know but even if it goes over 175, that doesn't necessarily mean the dam will fail. They should have a spillway with the top at an elevation of 175m. If the water goes over that, they have no control, it just spills over until enough drains out to get the level back down to 175m. So, everything should be designed with that in mind.

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..........and that scenario is far more likely than failure. Even in that lesser scenario, it would likely take multiple upstream dam/levy failures, in addition to the current extreme river flow, to push the water level over 175 at the Three Gorges Dam. But as the article I posted just above points out, here's plenty of agricultural, industrial and housing damage even without Three Gorges Dam failure and the predicted third flood wave hasn't arrived at Three Gorges yet.

Either way, the CCP is clearly worried about the damage to agriculture: "Given the social and political implications of the current flooding, and the specter of a Three Gorges breach, it may not be a complete coincidence that Beijing last week announced its second-largest purchase of U.S. corn ever, to the tune of 1.365 million tons, along with 320,000 tons of winter and spring wheat."

Sims said:

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Quote:

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40,000 m^3/sec

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Was at 61,000 m^3 the other day

AgStuckinLBK said:

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Sims said:

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Quote:

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40,000 m^3/sec

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Was at 61,000 m^3 the other day

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Have mercy...what is that like 17 million gallons per second? Those numbers are just almost unimaginable to me.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

---

at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

---

What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

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According to that link, its back to 163.3 meters now. flow in and out more or less balanced at 40,000 m^3/sec

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Some context:

40,000 m^3/sec = 10,566,882 gal/sec

Niagra Falls has 3 falls. Two (American and Bridal Veil Falls) has 75,750 gal/se and Horseshoe Falls dumps 681,750 gal/sec, for a total of 757,500 gal/sec.

Almost 14 TIMES (13.95) the amount of water that Niagra Falls dumps.

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Want to really be impressed? The Amazon averages 209000 m^3/sec. That's 55,211,958 gal/sec or 4.33 cubic miles of water every day.

Another notable comparison...

40,000 m^3/sec = 1,412,587 ft^3/sec
Current Mississippi River flow in Belle Chase (South New Orleans) is 406,000 ft^3/sec or 11,497 m^3/sec
1 ft^3 = 7.48 gallons

minimum volume of an olympic swimming pool... 2,500 m^3

DallasAg 94 said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The dam can hold back waters to a level of 175 meters above sea level; according to the Bureau of Hydrology of the Chanjiang (Yangtze) Water Resources Commission, the latest (Friday) height at the dam was 158.85 meters, down from 164 meters on Tuesday.

---

at 158.85m - 52.985564 feet from top of the dam.
at 164m - 36.08 feet from top.

The reservoir can still hold a **** ton of water. This thing has a long way to go before failing.

---

What's the highest it's ever been?

175 theoretical probably means squat

---

According to that link, its back to 163.3 meters now. flow in and out more or less balanced at 40,000 m^3/sec

---

Some context:

40,000 m^3/sec = 10,566,882 gal/sec

Niagra Falls has 3 falls. Two (American and Bridal Veil Falls) has 75,750 gal/se and Horseshoe Falls dumps 681,750 gal/sec, for a total of 757,500 gal/sec.

Almost 14 TIMES (13.95) the amount of water that Niagra Falls dumps.

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I had a leaking jon boat and could bail more water than that with a 5 gallon bucket.

i did the math earlier, that's almost 15x what harvey brought down the brazos.

Update.

When the dam fails we should get Covid patients to cough all over some Army surplus blankets. Then we should put the blankets in a shipping container and send it to a medical waste disposal facility.

This is epically horrible, and yet it sounds like the authorities don't have many options. Its a triage situation. One can only hope in some ways they do get compensated. That's the other side of such a regime--they can certainly do it. But nothing makes up much for such loss. This is just heartbreaking stuff to read.

China is basically suffering right now from rains what Chiang-Kai shek deliberately inflicted on millions in 1938 just to interfere with a Japanese Army advance. He ordered the d ykes in the whole region involved blown up.

they are opening them up at night...lots of rain

titan said:

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This is epically horrible, and yet it sounds like the authorities don't have many options. Its a triage situation. One can only hope in some ways they do get compensated. That's the other side of such a regime--they can certainly do it. But nothing makes up much for such loss. This is just heartbreaking stuff to read.

China is basically suffering right now from rains what Chiang-Kai shek deliberately inflicted on millions in 1938 just to interfere with a Japanese Army advance. He ordered the d ykes in the whole region involved blown up.

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Wait, you are blaming Chiang Kai Shek for this? Confused.

"The flooding that walloped Bao's farm and 13 million more acres of cropland about the size of West Virginia is the worst that that China has experienced in years. China's Ministry of Emergency Management pegs the direct economic cost of the disaster at $21 billion in destroyed farmland, roads and other property. Some 55 million people, including farmers like Bao, have been affected.

The disaster is bad news for the world's second-largest economy, which is already in a fragile state because of the coronavirus pandemic. Beijing has so far been able to secure food supplies by importing vast amounts of produce from other countries, and by releasing tens of millions of tons from strategic reserves."

CCP Keeping it Quiet