GreyhoundDad said:

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Maybe it's in these 600 pages but I'm not going to read through all of them. I'm just curious with all the rain and hot weather, can mosquitoes transmit corona virus? Thanks

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It's been asked and I think the answer is no.

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IrishTxAggie said:
Yes. 50k dead in the US by end of the year. I'm feeling pretty confident with both bets.

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I would too if I were you.

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If you actually think we'll be under 50K for the year, then I would put you in the category of not thinking this is a big deal.

YouBet said:

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lead said:

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No worries, mate. I'm pretty neutral on this whole thing; both sides of the argument, as it were, have a point. We see lots of virus stats and projections on here but we're not yet able to see the real impact this is having on real peoples income, retirements, and the economy.

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Wut? My retirement balance is way the f^ck down! And layoffs. everywhere.

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. Gotcha. But I think the general feeling out there is that this is gonna somehow blow over and the market will bounce back.

So, are we passing China tomorrow for the world lead in number of cases?

Philip J Fry said:

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IrishTxAggie said:
Yes. 50k dead in the US by end of the year. I'm feeling pretty confident with both bets.

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I would too if I were you.

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If you actually think we'll be under 50K for the year, then I would put you in the category of not thinking this is a big deal.

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I said I think he may win both bets.

That does not mean I do not think 50k deaths is no big deal. Please don't assume you know how others think.

GreyhoundDad said:

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Maybe it's in these 600 pages but I'm not going to read through all of them. I'm just curious with all the rain and hot weather, can mosquitoes transmit corona virus? Thanks

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Only if the mosquito coughs on you.


https://www.mosquito.org/news/492656/Can-Mosquitoes-Transmit-the-Coronavirus.htm

aginlakeway said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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IrishTxAggie said:
Yes. 50k dead in the US by end of the year. I'm feeling pretty confident with both bets.

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I would too if I were you.

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If you actually think we'll be under 50K for the year, then I would put you in the category of not thinking this is a big deal.

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I said I think he may win both bets.

That does not mean I do not think 50k deaths is no big deal. Please don't assume you know how others think.

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Guess I know which category I fall under then...

Seems we are talking around each other.

I would consider 50K a nothing burger.

while spending 6 trillion dollars in mitigation?

cuz that appears to be the tradeoff

With so many Covid topics, thought this was the best place to put it. Apologies if it has already been posted.

1/3 of all cases are in NYC yeah im not worried.

Darth Randy said:

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With so many Covid topics, thought this was the best place to put it. Apologies if it has already been posted.

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Is governor coon man making coronavirus policy or something?

Philip J Fry said:

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IrishTxAggie said:
Yes. 50k dead in the US by end of the year. I'm feeling pretty confident with both bets.

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I would too if I were you.

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If you actually think we'll be under 50K for the year, then I would put you in the category of not thinking this is a big deal.

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This would be the "no big deal crowd" I was referring to.

We may not hit 50,000 deaths, I pray we don't. But if we don't, it is only because of the drastic measures we are taking, otherwise it would have been hundreds of thousands.

Dallas County zip code tracker....no idea how much the data changed since 3/23 and truly not enough of a case load to make any real analysis/determination of what the cause of the spread is but since I have some time to kill couple of thoughts.

1) the darkest part on north side lines up w some of the wealthiest areas of Dallas. Want to bet that there were a lot of international travelers in there.

2) darker areas Knox-Henderson and just East of 75. Very densely populated areas with LOTS of multi-family residential properties for SMU and urban professionals. Was poorer area in past, became higher end last 10years. Expensive land, more affluent areas, smaller parcels, and lots of older units with smaller footprints (hard to isolate from each other) unlike newer 300-400 unit class A MF you see in suburbia. Greenville Ave north of Lovers and along Northwest Hwy has some dense MF complexes. Probably lots of student carriers interacting with the tightly knit homogeneously white upper class community. Central Market on Lovers and Greenville probably the biggest spreader area.

3) a Oak Cliff area is pretty much densely populated with a combination of urban professionals, Mexicans of all economic classes, and deeply ingrained black. The three over lap just because of the small geographic area. Smaller multi family apartments and very small parcel single family originally developed in the 20s-50s. The area gets poorer the further south of 30 you go.



Why all the focus on multi family properties in 2 & 3?

Simple: cruise ships without the water....


I've been on a lot of low income properties in Oak Cliff and in Dallas. Let's just say the stereotype large Hispanic family living in a two bedroom apartment is true from what I've seen. The rate of spread in a small apartment building could be extremely fast.

machine20 said:

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We're near the inflection point. We'll be fine

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I would love for that to be the case, but our daily cases is continuing exponential growth. Maybe the lockdown in New York is starting to work, but new states like Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia and Louisiana are picking up steam.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Bobcat-Ag said:

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So, are we passing China tomorrow for the world lead in number of cases?

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Italy will

Bobcat06 said:

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Bobcat-Ag said:

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So, are we passing China tomorrow for the world lead in number of cases?

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Italy will

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We should pass both of them tomorrow.

Philip J Fry said:

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IrishTxAggie said:
Yes. 50k dead in the US by end of the year. I'm feeling pretty confident with both bets.

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I would too if I were you.

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If you actually think we'll be under 50K for the year, then I would put you in the category of not thinking this is a big deal.

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Right now I'm thinking we'll probably be around 50K for the year, but that's because of the measures we've taken, and we've bought ourselves a little time to react and come up with better treatments. That doesn't mean it's no big deal either.

Let's take a more in-depth look at the influence of modeling on government policy......

Mathematics Life and Death

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It's not that the science behind modeling is controversial. Wallinga uses a well-established epidemic model that divides the Dutch population into four groups, or compartments in the field's lingo: healthy, sick, recovered, or dead. Equations determine how many people move between compartments as weeks and months pass. "The mathematical side is pretty textbook," he says. But model outcomes vary widely depending on the characteristics of a pathogen and the affected population.

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Because the virus that causes COVID-19 is new, modelers need estimates for key model parameters. These estimates, particularly in the early days of an outbreak, also come from the work of modelers. For instance, by late January several groups had published roughly similar estimates of the number of new infections caused by each infected person when no control measures are takena parameter epidemiologists call R0. "This approximate consensus so early in the pandemic gave modelers a chance to warn of this new pathogen's epidemic and pandemic potential less than 3 weeks after the first Disease Outbreak News report was released by the WHO[World Health Organization] about the outbreak," says Maia Majumder, a computational epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School whose group produced one of those early estimates.

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Policymakers have relied too heavily on COVID-19 models, says Devi Sridhar, a global health expert at the University of Edinburgh. "I'm not really sure whether the theoretical models will play out in real life." And it's dangerous for politicians to trust models that claim to show how a little-studied virus can be kept in check, says Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage. "It's like, you've decided you've got to ride a tiger," he says, "except you don't know where the tiger is, how big it is, or how many tigers there actually are."

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Interesting article on modeling epidemics. Speaking of riding tigers, Devi is a rare combination of beauty and brains.

cone said:

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what is the false negative rate here?

false positive is one thing, but false negatives are really bad

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Doesn't matter. Gave tests. Put a check in the box.

inoffensive username said:

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We may not hit 50,000 deaths, I pray we don't. But if we don't, it is only because of the drastic measures we are taking, otherwise it would have been hundreds of thousands.

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I would argue that even hundreds of thousands of deaths would be pretty good considering the initial modeling. In fact 220,000 deaths would be 10% of the Imperial College 'do nothing' response scenario. Ugly but but still a relatively decent number.

Bobcat06 said:

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machine20 said:

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We're near the inflection point. We'll be fine

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I would love for that to be the case, but our daily cases is continuing exponential growth. Maybe the lockdown in New York is starting to work, but new states like Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia and Louisiana are picking up steam.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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I'm not a mathematician, but I don't see how you can say cases are growing exponentially. Exponential growth is growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size. The growth rate is not becoming more rapid, it isn't even remaining constant, its slowing down, at least according to testing results. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

March 18 - 9,197 cases
March 19 - 13,779 cases - 49.8% growth
March 20 - 19,367 cases - 40.6%
March 21 - 24,192 cases - 24.9%
March 22 - 33,592 cases - 38.9%
March 23 - 43,781 cases - 30.3%
March 24 - 54,856 cases - 25.3%
March 25 - 64,775 cases - 18.1%

What am I missing? Untested cases? Perhaps number of confirmed cases will sky rocket over next week, but until that happens, I don't know why people keep saying things with such certainty. I see a lot of "will happen" and not "could happen based on projections".

GTFO Troll

1. In every country that reports accurately, the virus has ~20% daily growth (between 15-25%). The US had testing issues so the our daily growth exploded. The 40% daily growth isn't actual new cases; it's closing the gap between cases and testing capacity. As long as we continue to be ~20% daily growth, we wont be near the inflection point.

2. The majority of our national resources are being focus at NYC because its the epicenter. However, other states are having testing capacity issues (It still takes several days to get tested in my area). I'm concerned that we'll see explosions in states like Michigan and Georgia as more testing capacity comes online there.

Does the increase in homicide and/or death from self defense get include in the damage count for this overreaction?

swimmerbabe11 said:

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While horrible thank God we have refrigeration.

Apocalyptic would be stacking tens of thousands along 1st Avenue outside Bellevue and NYU Med.

Do they have the castle doctrine?

How would you like to settle up on our bourbon bet?

Mr.Infectious said:

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Dallas County zip code tracker....no idea how much the data changed since 3/23 and truly not enough of a case load to make any real analysis/determination of what the cause of the spread is but since I have some time to kill couple of thoughts.

1) the darkest part on north side lines up w some of the wealthiest areas of Dallas. Want to bet that there were a lot of international travelers in there.

2) darker areas Knox-Henderson and just East of 75. Very densely populated areas with LOTS of multi-family residential properties for SMU and urban professionals. Was poorer area in past, became higher end last 10years. Expensive land, more affluent areas, smaller parcels, and lots of older units with smaller footprints (hard to isolate from each other) unlike newer 300-400 unit class A MF you see in suburbia. Greenville Ave north of Lovers and along Northwest Hwy has some dense MF complexes. Probably lots of student carriers interacting with the tightly knit homogeneously white upper class community. Central Market on Lovers and Greenville probably the biggest spreader area.

3) a Oak Cliff area is pretty much densely populated with a combination of urban professionals, Mexicans of all economic classes, and deeply ingrained black. The three over lap just because of the small geographic area. Smaller multi family apartments and very small parcel single family originally developed in the 20s-50s. The area gets poorer the further south of 30 you go.



Why all the focus on multi family properties in 2 & 3?

Simple: cruise ships without the water....


I've been on a lot of low income properties in Oak Cliff and in Dallas. Let's just say the stereotype large Hispanic family living in a two bedroom apartment is true from what I've seen. The rate of spread in a small apartment building could be extremely fast.

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I tried to find a website with that map. Do you have a link other than the low res D magazine image?