Social Distanced said:

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Does the increase in homicide and/or death from self defense get include in the damage count for this overreaction?

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Depends on who you ask.

There will be some who will consider it acceptable losses, if it means just 1 person doesn't contract the virus.

Mr.Infectious said:

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IMO This is one of the most bizarre trends coming out of this crisis, Cities neutering their police force and announcing to boldly to the public. If you are going to decrease your police protection, why announce it at all?

I'm sure its to give the citizens reassurance and in these crazy times.....

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If this happens in your city, it's time to fill your magazines and go condition 1

Bobcat06 said:

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1. In every country that reports accurately, the virus has ~20% daily growth (between 15-25%). The US had testing issues so the our daily growth exploded. The 40% daily growth isn't actual new cases; it's closing the gap between cases and testing capacity. As long as we continue to be ~20% daily growth, we wont be near the inflection point.

2. The majority of our national resources are being focus at NYC because its the epicenter. However, other states are having testing capacity issues (It still takes several days to get tested in my area). I'm concerned that we'll see explosions in states like Michigan and Georgia as more testing capacity comes online there.

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"In every country..."

Italy went up yesterday by less than 10% yesterday, Germany was up 13%, France was up 13%, Switzerland was 10%.

Again, if we're going to rely on data and projections, there should be some precision and less use of absolutes.

Mr.Infectious said:

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IMO This is one of the most bizarre trends coming out of this crisis, Cities neutering their police force and announcing to boldly to the public. If you are going to decrease your police protection, why announce it at all?

I'm sure its to give the citizens reassurance and in these crazy times.....

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Defintely falls into 'the cure is worse than the disease' type of response. Especially for the already marginalized and the communities that dont trust the police department or local government.

This should get you there.

Thank you.

Sounds good. Email sent

My apologies. I should have added the caveat "before they reach IQR/bend the curve"

TexasAggie_02 said:

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Houston traffic during "rush hour" today

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Looks like drivers whose lineage is from another part of the planet are staying home.

They way I'm judging if a country reaches the inflection point is if the number of new cases is on a negative slope over several days (to rule out single day outliers).

Since the number of new cases is effectively the derivative of the number of overall cases, a negative slope within the new cases would make the second derivative negative and the overall slope to be concave down (i.e. the inflection point).

Based on that criteria, here's the countries who have reached the inflection point:
China (fake)
Italy
Switzerland
South Korea

I didn't look at countries with less than 2000 cases. Both Australia and Brazil may have reached it, but there's a lot of noise in their data.

Is it me or are relatively wealthy international or frequent travelers spreading this stuff all around to create hot spots, then the local poor rabble start spreading in in the community once a couple get it?

Tip of the cap to you sir. Man of integrity.

The correct term is a logistic curve , which is a decaying exponential growth that rolls into asymptotic progression. Just starts exponentially.

Ya. Lockdowns work. Look at the growth rates before and after shutdowns in Italy.

Not saying you, but with some folks it's like arguing gravity isn't real because parachutes.

See my graph on a log plot. It's VERY close to linear growth...that is, it bounces around the exponential growth line.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Is it me or are relatively wealthy international or frequent travelers spreading this stuff all around to create hot spots, then the local poor rabble start spreading in in the community once a couple get it?

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Seems to be how it starts in some areas, although not all such as Seattle which was the guy from Wuhan. I don't think they ever said why he came here, work, school, or to escape the virus. The first round of cases in Northern California also are from the guy from Wuhan in Seattle.

No one knows for certain how it got to NYC, but reports from scientists who have looked at the virus have said someone coming from Iran is likely the cause, although given how many people travel to NYC, it probably came from multiple places in a short period of time.

The initial cases in Southern California are connected to Italy.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Is it me or are relatively wealthy international or frequent travelers spreading this stuff all around to create hot spots, then the local poor rabble start spreading in in the community once a couple get it?

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It sounds like that's how it started.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

let's be honest now

none of these modelers know anything

So long as these things keep happening globally, there will be no containing anything. This protest is very SMRT smart!

k2aggie07 said:

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The correct term is a logistic curve , which is a decaying exponential growth that rolls into asymptotic progression. Just starts exponentially.

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It's science. Well, it's statistics. We all know science and statistics have had a hot cold relationship since climate change became a thing.

Bobcat06 said:

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They way I'm judging if a country reaches the inflection point is if the number of new cases is on a negative slope over several days (to rule out single day outliers).

Since the number of new cases is effectively the derivative of the number of overall cases, a negative slope within the new cases would make the second derivative negative and the overall slope to be concave down (i.e. the inflection point).

Based on that criteria, here's the countries who have reached the inflection point:
China (fake)
Italy
Switzerland
South Korea

I didn't look at countries with less than 2000 cases. Both Australia and Brazil may have reached it, but there's a lot of noise in their data.

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I've been tracking Italy vs the US on daily death rates as reported by Worldometer

Looking at Italy today, their death rate was right at a 10% increase today. Been in the teens in terms of growth since 3/16. They look to have peaked around 3/1 - 3/3 with a noisy period before a pretty rapid draw down.

The US looks to be at or near a similar point which may be the peak. The rolling averages (entirety and 7 day rolling) are starting stabilize vs rapid increase.

In my opinion, case fatality rate isn't a solid indicator of epidemic progression because it relies on too many variables (case-to-death lag, test capacity, treatment capacity, etc)

CFTXAG10 said:

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TexasAggie_02 said:

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Houston traffic during "rush hour" today

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They have made a lot of progress on the BW8 stretch from 225 to 45 over the last couple weeks. Seems like now would be the perfect time to be out working on the roads before the masses start to flood the streets again.

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Bobcat06 said:

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In my opinion, case fatality rate isn't a solid indicator of epidemic progression because it relies on too many variables (case-to-death lag, test capacity, treatment capacity, etc)

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I'm not looking at the case to fatality rate. I'm only looking at the death rate.

Italy:

So at the start of March, we saw these numbers for total deaths over the time frame

3/1/2020 - 41 deaths (41% day over day)
3/2/2020 - 52 deaths (27% day over day)
3/3/2020 - 79 deaths (52% day over day)

3/23/2020 - 6077 (11% day over day)
3/24/2020 - 6820 (12% day over day
3/25/2020 - 7503 (10% day over day)

Today Averages:
Life to Date Average: 25% (This peaked at 41%
7 day Average: 14% (This peaked at 59% on day 1)


For the US

We've seen the following

3/23/2020 - 555 (34% day over day)
3/24/2020 - 780 (41% day over day
3/25/2020 - 1027 (32% day over day)

Today Averages:
Life to Date Average: 24% (The peak has been 24%)
7 day Average: 32% (Peak was yesterday at 33%)


So the good news is the death rate increases are significantly lower than what Italy saw.

What I'll be looking for is the 7 day average to get below the Life to Date average like we are seeing in Italy.

CFTXAG10 said:

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TexasAggie_02 said:

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Houston traffic during "rush hour" today

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They have made a lot of progress on the BW8 stretch from 225 to 45 over the last couple weeks. Seems like now would be the perfect time to be out working on the roads before the masses start to flood the streets again.

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They need to finished I 35 while they're at it

Gotcha. I mistook death rate as fatality rate. You're looking for the trend lines of percent increase to cross.

The number of cases (or deaths) is essentially a logistic curve. The derivative a logistic curve is a Gaussian (bell curve) distribution. That is, the daily number of cases (or deaths) will look like a bell curve when this is over. Look at the plot of daily case or daily deaths for China and they look like a bell curve.

I'm looking for daily cases to reach the peak of the bell curve and start coming back down in order to identify the inflection or midway point.

Quote:

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There is talk of cancelling next years BOA events

Drum Corp Intl still assuming they'll have a season:

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DCI will continue to adhere to all national directives and incorporate the guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, public health authorities, and physicians to ensure the safety of our performers, staff, volunteers, partners, audience members, and everyone associated with DCI's nationwide operational structure.

With so many schools and events affected at this point, we understand that many in the DCI community are concerned about the 2020 Summer Tour, which begins three months from now. While there have already been some disruptions to rehearsal camps for the individual corps this month depending on their geographic locations, there will likely be more impact on spring activities. However, at this point, we are continuing to plan for a 2020 DCI Summer Tour.

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Welp DCI canceled the season today. At least age-outs will get an extra year

Quote:

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We know this is a difficult time for everyone as we all respond to the COVID-19 crisis. The events worldwide have impacted Drum Corps International as well, forcing cancellation of the 2020 Summer Tour as of Wednesday, March 25.

DCI's voting membership unanimously reached the difficult decision with great regret after thorough evaluation of numerous factors affecting participant health and safety, travel requirements, logistics, venue availability, and other associated issues. The membership also agreed that in order to preserve the opportunity for this year's class of age-outs, performers will receive additional eligibility based on existing age requirements with a one-year extension.

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500,000 now. Back in January if you ran the numbers it was 500,000 by Feb 28th. The official million mark will be interesting, should be within a week if everyone was free to move around but I'm guessing about 3-4 weeks since everyone is locked down. India would have been a big contributor but they are hardcore locked down.

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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While horrible thank God we have refrigeration.

Apocalyptic would be stacking tens of thousands along 1st Avenue outside Bellevue and NYU Med.

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Agreed. My initial take on this was misuse of the word apocalyptic. This isn't that. He or she is 27 and exaggerating.

It's more appropriate to use that word for the economic outcome of this though.

My daughter is devastated. We were planning on seeing all the Texas shows this summer.

YouBet said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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While horrible thank God we have refrigeration.

Apocalyptic would be stacking tens of thousands along 1st Avenue outside Bellevue and NYU Med.

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Agreed. My initial take on this was misuse of the word apocalyptic. This isn't that. He or she is 27 and exaggerating.

It's more appropriate to use that word for the economic outcome of this though.

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True. And unless Dr. Bray is Doogie Howser, he/she hasn't even been a practicing physician for long.