cone said:

---

my question

how is the median age of Italian cases 63?

were these older people just going about their business as normal before the lockdown?

that's what doesn't make sense to me. how does it attack this group that is completely paranoid about getting it?

nursing homes are one thing, but this is just mowing through everyone

---

Quote:

---

Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus. Meanwhile, a member of Associazione Unione Giovani Italo Cinesi, a Chinese society in Italy aimed at promoting friendship between people in the two countries, called for respect for novel coronavirus patients during a street demonstration. "I'm not a virus. I'm a human. Eradicate the prejudice."

---

And from the comments...

Quote:

---

Plot twist: now Italy has the highest number of people affected with Coronavirus in Europe...

---

Quote:

---

Be aware this channel is sponsor by Chinese Government.

---

According to the AP:

If true, not sure if it applies to outbound flights too.

FriscoKid said:

---

Quote:

---

I'm hoping for under 250k dead

---

That's way way way more than China.

---

Is it though?

So we know Italy's hospitals are overrun which has caused their CFR to spike. Anybody seen reports on deaths unrelated to COVID-19 spiking as well? Gotta be people needing ICU beds or ventilators who can't get them and who don't have the disease, right?

If so, where would those deaths show up?

Was that guy identified and investigated by the police?

swimmerbabe11 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

---

I getcha. if I could catch it right now, know I have it, and be used as a lab rat? absolutely.
my biggest fear is catching, not knowing I have it, and getting others sick.

my last day at the bridal salon had a bunch of college kids coming in to try on bridesmaids dresses basically for funsies because nothing else is open.
my job requires me to have close physical contact.. and everyone wants to bring mom and grandma. I'm so glad we finally put limits down on number of appointments, guests, etc.

I'm also paranoid about being a hypochondriac, if I stress out, I get a fever pretty easy. so I'm slightly worried that I'll get it and at first assume it's just me being emotional and then all the sudden need to go to the hospital because I didnt admit I was sick soon enough.

..not that I overthink things at all.

---

Hi hon. Guess you finally joined TexAgs, huh?

TCTTS said:

---

HeardAboutPerio said:

---

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

---

Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

---

Agree.

Several key points are that the number of asymptomatic carriers appears to actually be small. And that the virus seems to burn itself out. Also that Italy and Spain are probably going to be outliers as far as fatalities for several noted reasons and maybe some we have not discovered yet.

Thanks.

Death rate in confirmed cases is actually rising. Up to 4.2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain obviously have a lot to do with that.

dermdoc said:

---

TCTTS said:

---

HeardAboutPerio said:

---

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

---

Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

---

Agree.

Several key points are that the number of asymptomatic carriers appears to actually be small. And that the virus seems to burn itself out. Also that Italy and Spain are probably going to be outliers as far as fatalities for several noted reasons and maybe some we have not discovered yet.

Thanks.

---

Assuming those numbers are accurate, this shows how much disinformation/wrong information is flying around.

People in this thread have been estimating up to 80% asymptomatic rates based on studies and anecdotal evidence. WHO says 1.2% and Iceland's random testing shows 1.1%.

Low numbers of asymptomatic is encouraging though! It means if you've got it, you'll probably know it eventually, and if you aren't showing symptoms, there's a pretty good chance you're not going to infect anyone else.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

Death rate in confirmed cases is actually rising. Up to 4.2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain obviously have a lot to do with that.

---

For the average persons chances to die, we should probably eliminate Italy, Spain, China, and Germany from the CFR calculations.

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

Death rate in confirmed cases is actually rising. Up to 4.2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain obviously have a lot to do with that.

---

Wouldn't this be because they're asking you to stay in your house unless the symptoms become so bad you must go see a dr?

foleyt said:

---

---

Can't wait til we get there and start the economic V curve on the way back up.

I keep reading about mass testing in South Korea but also thought I read somewhere that they've tested like .5% of their population. While better than most countries that doesn't seem like "mass testing." Maybe I have the countries mixed up though and that rate isn't for S. Korea.

dermdoc said:

---

TCTTS said:

---

HeardAboutPerio said:

---

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

---

Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

---

Agree.

Several key points are that the number of asymptomatic carriers appears to actually be small. And that the virus seems to burn itself out. Also that Italy and Spain are probably going to be outliers as far as fatalities for several noted reasons and maybe some we have not discovered yet.

Thanks.

---

Yes if Italy and Spain aren't outliers... well that would be a very big problem.

I think the continent of Africa will be worse than either one of those countries tho. Not sure how they wouldn't be.

Alta said:

---

I keep reading about mass testing in South Korea but also thought I read somewhere that they've tested like .5% of their population. While better than most countries that doesn't seem like "mass testing." Maybe I have the countries mixed up though and that rate isn't for S. Korea.

---

Yes, South Korea leads the world in testing as far as countries go.

NY State leads the world in a localized area now it seems.

Only as far as a per capita standpoint. We've tested about as many as SK now.

What is the rate though? Is it really .5%? Not sure why I'm sucking at google and can't find it again.

Mordred said:

---

BoydCrowder13 said:

---

Death rate in confirmed cases is actually rising. Up to 4.2% of confirmed cases. Italy and Spain obviously have a lot to do with that.

---

For the average persons chances to die, we should probably eliminate Italy, Spain, China, and Germany from the CFR calculations.

---

I guess. Though the reason the death rate is high is the overwhelmed medical system in those countries. Which is where a lot of countries will be in a couple weeks. If you pull their numbers out, the death rate is 2.7% of confirmed cases. If you pull out SK (clearly an outlier), 2.9% of confirmed cases.

Quote:

---

And that the virus seems to burn itself out.

---

Dermdoc, can you explain what this means? I'm curious.

Quote:

---

1847 new cases today and 112 new deaths in France. 50% of the 1,525 patients currently in intensive care are under 60 years old

---

World wide cases just topped 300k this afternoon. Just 4 days ago that number was 200k. Expect us to hit 400k after another 2 days, which would mean a doubling of cases every week. Hopefully that number will begin to level off soon.

Alta said:

---

What is the rate though? Is it really .5%? Not sure why I'm sucking at google and can't find it again.

---

Yeah I don't doubt that it's under 1%. They tested aggressively and early on the first clusters and were able to isolate all of or nearly all of the contacts of those people and stop the spread in it's tracks.

So far they are the model on how to handle this. Not everybody can just weld their citizens in their homes for 60 days like China did in Wuhan.

Mordred said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

TCTTS said:

---

HeardAboutPerio said:

---

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

---

Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

---

Agree.

Several key points are that the number of asymptomatic carriers appears to actually be small. And that the virus seems to burn itself out. Also that Italy and Spain are probably going to be outliers as far as fatalities for several noted reasons and maybe some we have not discovered yet.

Thanks.

---

Assuming those numbers are accurate, this shows how much disinformation/wrong information is flying around.

People in this thread have been estimating up to 80% asymptomatic rates based on studies and anecdotal evidence. WHO says 1.2% and Iceland's random testing shows 1.1%.

Low numbers of asymptomatic is encouraging though! It means if you've got it, you'll probably know it eventually, and if you aren't showing symptoms, there's a pretty good chance you're not going to infect anyone else.

---

Yep. And I will be the first to admit I was wrong on that. Seems like this is not near as contagious as we thought. And also means we are probably going to get through this quicker than I originally thought.

And big cities like NYC are the worst hit.

Ok assuming it is under 1% that still doesn't seem like great "mass testing." Especially if people are negative then they theoretically should keep getting tested throughout the outbreak.

Maybe they are doing better than other countries but still doesn't seem to justify that their testing is so great.

wait

all evidenced points in the last two weeks to asymptomatic carriers being the primary vector here

I know Washington Post is bad **** here, but this article is pretty good about why social distancing and flattening the curve is beneficial.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-resource-box-v3%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

horrible news for severity of symptoms and CFR though

and doesn't match with Italy data showing lots of asymptomatic carriers

PJYoung said:

---

dermdoc said:

---

TCTTS said:

---

HeardAboutPerio said:

---

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

---

Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

---

Agree.

Several key points are that the number of asymptomatic carriers appears to actually be small. And that the virus seems to burn itself out. Also that Italy and Spain are probably going to be outliers as far as fatalities for several noted reasons and maybe some we have not discovered yet.

Thanks.

---

Yes if Italy and Spain aren't outliers... well that would be a very big problem.

I think the continent of Africa will be worse than either one of those countries tho. Not sure how they wouldn't be.

---

I wonder how many of that population are on anti malarials? And it is hotter there. I still wonder about genetic susceptibility in the Italians and Spanish.

I don't understand how this virus burns itself out without a huge iceberg of asymptomatic

it's one or the other here

less infectious more deadly slower burn

more infectious less deadly faster burn

Quote:

---

Yep. And I will be the first to admit I was wrong on that. Seems like this is not near as contagious as we thought. And also means we are probably going to get through this quicker than I originally thought.

And big cities like NYC are the worst hit.

---

Stories I've been reading about the conditions in NYC hospitals are very concerning. Hard to tell if they are about to be overrun or just haven't been managing things well between hospitals.

cone said:

---

horrible news for severity of symptoms and CFR though

and doesn't match with Italy data showing lots of asymptomatic carriers

---

Agreed. Would mean the CFR is much closer to 1% (absent breakdown in health services) than anyone would want to admit.

Like I said, the different sources of data don't jibe with each other. We basically fumbling around in the dark with this thing right now. Take everything and every study, even from good sources, with a heavy dose of salt.

until you understand how it's spread, nothing is an overreaction

this is why I am most upset with the ChiComs. we can't trust their study data.

and Italy is showing it as farce.