Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Italy is still going up!

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I have a buddy stationed at Aviano. I hope their lockdown and quarantine stops this soon

if yall would post the links I would summarize what he is saying in real time.

FbgTxAg said:

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Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

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The real purpose of the 15 day delay is to buy time to ramp production for drug therapy and medical capacity.

You're right that the goal is herd immunity but the least severe way to get there is:
1. You have a fever
2. Get tested
3. Get perscribed HCQ & Zpack
4. Stay in bed for 3 days
5. Repeat 300M times.
6. No one dies in hospital waiting for life support machines

However, it takes time to be able to get testing, drug manufacturing, etc to the level to help 300M people

Italy as a whole went into lockdown on 3/10, right?

We should start to see the impact from that in the next few days. It's not surprising that they are still increasing as a whole right now.

Lombardy went into lockdown a few days earlier, right? We should be starting to see the impact from that on the Lombardy numbers very soon.

His strong federalism is the best thing to come out of this so far.

ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

FbgTxAg said:

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Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

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I getcha. if I could catch it right now, know I have it, and be used as a lab rat? absolutely.
my biggest fear is catching, not knowing I have it, and getting others sick.

my last day at the bridal salon had a bunch of college kids coming in to try on bridesmaids dresses basically for funsies because nothing else is open.
my job requires me to have close physical contact.. and everyone wants to bring mom and grandma. I'm so glad we finally put limits down on number of appointments, guests, etc.

I'm also paranoid about being a hypochondriac, if I stress out, I get a fever pretty easy. so I'm slightly worried that I'll get it and at first assume it's just me being emotional and then all the sudden need to go to the hospital because I didnt admit I was sick soon enough.

..not that I overthink things at all.

Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Ummm, Italy is currently at 10.2% CFR and has been high for quite a while now.

Bobcat06 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

---

The real purpose of the 15 day delay is to buy time to ramp production for drug therapy and medical capacity.

You're right that the goal is herd immunity but the least severe way to get there is:
1. You have a fever
2. Get tested
3. Get perscribed HCQ & Zpack
4. Stay in bed for 3 days
5. Repeat 300M times.
6. No one dies in hospital waiting for life support machines

However, it takes time to be able to get testing, drug manufacturing, etc to the level to help 300M people

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Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Their critical care capability is already overwhelmed.

HCQ isn't going to protect the older cohort

if it has any efficacy it'll be with the young and early on in the illness

Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Italy's CFR is around 10%. I believe that is largely due to an overwhelming of the health care system in Lombardy and the fact that they are rationing ICU care where serious cases above age 70 are being placed on comfort measures vs getting aggressive ICU care (intubation etc..). That's at least what I've seen from the reporting in US media.

my question

how is the median age of Italian cases 63?

were these older people just going about their business as normal before the lockdown?

that's what doesn't make sense to me. how does it attack this group that is completely paranoid about getting it?

nursing homes are one thing, but this is just mowing through everyone

cone said:

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my question

how is the median age of Italian cases 63?

where these older people just going about their business as normal before the lockdown?

that's what doesn't make sense to me. how does it attack this group that is completely paranoid about getting it?

nursing homes are one thing, but this is just mowing through everyone

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https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/italys-love-for-grandparents-may-have-worsened-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

HowdyTAMU said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Ummm, Italy is currently at 10.2% CFR and has been high for quite a while now.

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Thanks. I'm too lazy to do the math.

Since China's lying to us and no western countries took proactive measures like South Korea or Signapore, Italy's CFR are sadly more indicative of what other Western countries will experience. That is, the 1% CFR is heavily influenced by Chinese statistics which are lies.

How has Italy's CFR changed over time? Was it lower in the beginning and jumped up once the hospitals reached capacity?

I believe Italy has an older population overall.

In addition, I've seen some speculation that another issue is that culturally, it's not uncommon for 3-4 generations to live in one home. Therefore, it could be even if older Italians were being cautious, they may have gotten it from younger family members who live with them.

cone said:

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my question

how is the median age of Italian cases 63?

where these older people just going about their business as normal before the lockdown?

that's what doesn't make sense to me. how does it attack this group that is completely paranoid about getting it?

nursing homes are one thing, but this is just mowing through everyone

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Since Italy is on full lockdown, they have not been testing people with milder symptoms. They only test people coming to the hospitals which skews older.

cone said:

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HCQ isn't going to protect the older cohort

if it has any efficacy it'll be with the young and early on in the illness

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I havent heard that HCQ doesnt work on the olds. Do you have a link?

dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

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Never said that and thanks for the asinine comment. I care about mortality rate because posters on here were using mortality rates to predict millions of US deaths. Which I do not think will happen. But since I have asinine thoughts attributed to me that I never espoused, why believe me?

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I have seen one poster say millions of US deaths.

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How many do you estimate? More or less than the seasonal flu?

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IMO it will be more than seasonal flu and I'm hoping for under 250k dead in the US for this outbreak.

But if estimates of 50-70% infected here are correct then we will have a hard time keeping our death toll under that figure - even with new treatments.

All of that is my opinion of course so take it with a grain of salt. I know most do.

I hope like you do that a viral therapy will rise above the rest by summer and be our silver bullet avoiding a 2nd wave of deaths this fall.

may?

any data on if it was all familial spread?

and are the family members captured as part of the positive case numbers?

Fenrir said:

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People have been quoting the one study that said something like a 1.5 million US deaths non stop.

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That's not millions.

This is the best I have seen Trump at a press conference.

that was what was being reported on from China and SoKo a month ago

it's more useful as a early treatment and prophylactic for the younger cohort and HCWs

Bobcat06 said:

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HowdyTAMU said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Ummm, Italy is currently at 10.2% CFR and has been high for quite a while now.

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Thanks. I'm too lazy to do the math.

Since China's lying to us and no western countries took proactive measures like South Korea or Signapore, Italy's CFR are sadly more indicative of what other Western countries will experience. That is, the 1% CFR is heavily influenced by Chinese statistics which are lies.

How has Italy's CFR changed over time? Was it lower in the beginning and jumped up once the hospitals reached capacity?

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At 10 AM, there was a post in this thread with a graph showing Italy's CFR increasing over time

cone said:

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my question

how is the median age of Italian cases 63?

were these older people just going about their business as normal before the lockdown?

that's what doesn't make sense to me. how does it attack this group that is completely paranoid about getting it?

nursing homes are one thing, but this is just mowing through everyone

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Italian households have multi-generations in them under a single roof. Old Italian people DGAF with the best of them. They also like to touch each other's faces.

Quote:

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I'm hoping for under 250k dead

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That's way way way more than China.

We're not doing what China did to arrive at their outcome. Kinda like, two people jumped off a building. One used a parachute and the other used a pillowcase, and why did only one break his legs?

FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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I'm hoping for under 250k dead

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That's way way way more than China.

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Are we willing to do what China did to get China results?

cone said:

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any data on what are the ages of people being hospitalized in NYC?

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I did find this:

Quote:

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Stark new data from the United States and Europe suggests otherwise.

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis of U.S. cases from Feb. 12 to March 16 released Wednesday shows 38 percent of those sick enough to be hospitalized were younger than 55.

Earlier this week, French health ministry official Jrome Salomon said half of the 300 to 400 coronavirus patients treated in intensive care units in Paris were younger than 65, and, according to numbers presented at a seminar of intensive care specialists, half the ICU patients in the Netherlands were younger than 50.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

Bobcat06 said:

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HowdyTAMU said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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Ummm, Italy is currently at 10.2% CFR and has been high for quite a while now.

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Thanks. I'm too lazy to do the math.

Since China's lying to us and no western countries took proactive measures like South Korea or Signapore, Italy's CFR are sadly more indicative of what other Western countries will experience. That is, the 1% CFR is heavily influenced by Chinese statistics which are lies.

How has Italy's CFR changed over time? Was it lower in the beginning and jumped up once the hospitals reached capacity?

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It seems like Italy's CFR has been significantly higher than everybody else's for weeks now. Spain seems on the same trajectory, currently around 5%.

Germany's CFR is abnormally low but I've seen speculation that Germany isn't reporting elderly deaths with underlying health issues as covid deaths. No idea if that's true.

The US death rate is pretty low now, especially when you account for the huge batch of deaths from the Seattle nursing home. Then again, the bulk of our cases have only been confirmed in the past few days, so we really need to wait to see how deaths pick up over the next couple weeks.

cone said:

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may?

any data on if it was all familial spread?

and are the family members captured as part of the positive case numbers?

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Not that I've seen. We'll probably see studies on it once this is all over with.

I have to imagine the lack of ice water is killing the Italians. When I feel like crap ice and ice water is highly needed. Still water is killing them.

riverrataggie said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Italy is still going up!

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They will likely go up for another 5-7 days. My understanding is rest of Italy didn't lock down till Sunday or Monday if this week.

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Two weeks will be Monday the 23rd. The massive problem is that word of the lock down leaked out and people escaped the quarantine in the north the night before it went into effect.

That's probably why we saw their curve start to flatten and then go up again.

It's thought that if people had just stayed home they would be thru the worst of this.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy

Bobcat06 said:

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ccaggie05 said:

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How long until Italian hospitals are past capacity and the CFR jumps from 1% to 5% (like it did in Wuhan)?

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It spiked a long time ago in Italy.