Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reaches-african-continent-and-threatens-to-overwhelm-it-11961070

Never thought about this with regards to Africa but with their massive widespread HIV issue and their existing tuberculosis issues, Africa is going to get absolutely hammered by this thing. Compromised immune systems against this disease is going to be very bad.

We can't help them this time because we have enough problems on our own. I don't see this ending well for that area of the world.

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WHO mentioned Africa specifically when they first started talking about Covid-19 in January but it seems like it has been forgotten as the virus takes it's toll on everybody else first.

It will probably kill millions in Africa alone unless something changes quickly.

Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

PJYoung said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reaches-african-continent-and-threatens-to-overwhelm-it-11961070

Never thought about this with regards to Africa but with their massive widespread HIV issue and their existing tuberculosis issues, Africa is going to get absolutely hammered by this thing. Compromised immune systems against this disease is going to be very bad.

We can't help them this time because we have enough problems on our own. I don't see this ending well for that area of the world.

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WHO mentioned Africa specifically when they first started talking about Covid-19 in January but it seems like it has been forgotten as the virus takes it's toll on everybody else first.

It will probably kill millions in Africa alone unless something changes quickly.

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Optimist view: COVID hits most developed nations first, they figure out how to fight/contain more effectively than now. Africa benefits from these painful lessons.

But, that is a very optimistic view.

I do not know how to do links but on YouTube a friend of mine, Dr. Brent Bost has posted a short, very easy to understand Coronavirus talk. It is part of a group called wise ob.

And my nephew who works at Merrill Lynch says they have had their stat guys run the numbers and predict fewer deaths from Coronavirus than the seasonal flu.

We shall see.

PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

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And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

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And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

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You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

Reading through the last couple pages:


1. China deserves the blame but their are a lot of emotional reactions toward them. Yes they are an inept communist dictatorship. But they also got put up against something that could NEVER be contained. Its too contagious without presenting symptoms.

2. New York (especially NYC) is one of the most densely populated cities in America. How many of those old buildings have shared ventilation? Every urban center is screwed. If you live in one, and have property in suburban or country areas. MOVE THERE NOW. Things will be bad in about a week. NOTE: You should assume you already have it, please do not be a spreader if you leave. Wear PPE and self-isolate. Don't go see family. Do go to large gatherings.

3. I think our medical/economic system will help us react faster and better than other countries. You are starting to see that mobilization. We don't need to "build a hospital" in a week. Now as far as these new vaccines, I won't be signing up. A poor vaccine can actually make things worse. If needed, I much rather go the malaria drug/zinc route at this point.

Just my 2cents

hbtheduce said:

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Reading through the last couple pages:


1. China deserves the blame but their are a lot of emotional reactions toward them. Yes they are an inept communist dictatorship. But they also got put up against something that could NEVER be contained. Its too contagious without presenting symptoms.

2. New York (especially NYC) is one of the most densely populated cities in America. How many of those old buildings have shared ventilation? Every urban center is screwed. If you live in one, and have property in suburban or country areas. MOVE THERE NOW. Things will be bad in about a week. NOTE: You should assume you already have it, please do not be a spreader if you leave. Wear PPE and self-isolate. Don't go see family. Do go to large gatherings.

3. I think our medical/economic system will help us react faster and better than other countries. You are starting to see that mobilization. We don't need to "build a hospital" in a week. Now as far as these new vaccines, I won't be signing up. A poor vaccine can actually make things worse. If needed, I much rather go the malaria drug/zinc route at this point.

Just my 2cents

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Agree with everything except that we will see hospitals overrun in certain parts of the country. You will see it in NYC first it looks like. And soon.

PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

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Not when counting infection estimates.

Quote:

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Americans won't have the freedom to go help those who get sick, volunteer their time at a hospital, or give generously to a charity. Instead, big government came barrelling in like a bull in a china shop claiming they could solve COVID-19. The same government that continued to not test incoming passengers from Europe and who couldn't manufacture enough test kits with two months' notice.

Let Americans be free to be a part of the solution, calling us to a higher civic duty to help those most in need and protect the vulnerable. Not sitting in isolation like losers.

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https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Quote:

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In CDC's worst-case scenario, CDC expects more than 150200 million infections within the US. This estimate is hundreds of times bigger than China's infection rate (30% of our population compared to 0.006% in China). Does that really sound plausible to you?

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Philip J Fry said:

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Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

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Never said that and thanks for the asinine comment. I care about mortality rate because posters on here were using mortality rates to predict millions of US deaths. Which I do not think will happen. But since I have asinine thoughts attributed to me that I never espoused, why believe me?

JDB1996 said:

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Is this the video?

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Yes and thanks.

JDB1996 said:

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Is this the video?

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"We're starting to see the peaking of these cases"

Testing is not even widely available yet.

Texas has tested just over 500 people. Arizona 377.

These numbers are as of yesterday.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

I think widespread testing is probably another 2 weeks away at least.

The peak is at least 5 weeks away according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the FDA.

I love ya dermdoc, but when we aren't testing everyone, the best we can do is compare with confirmed cases....

Or use another country's that have more reliable data and track actual deaths to back calculate the #infected.

PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

---

South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

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I have read what they have done. But that is not a large enough test population to know what the mortality rate is.

And in fact, you would need to test randomly to find out the asymptomatic carrier rate.

dermdoc said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

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Never said that and thanks for the asinine comment. I care about mortality rate because posters on here were using mortality rates to predict millions of US deaths. Which I do not think will happen. But since I have asinine thoughts attributed to me that I never espoused, why believe me?

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I have seen one poster say millions of US deaths.

Philip J Fry said:

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I love ya dermdoc, but when we aren't testing everyone, the best we can do is compare with confirmed cases....

Or use another country's that have more reliable data and track actual deaths to back calculate the #infected.

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Love you too my friend. And I agree with your last post. My problem is when people use these mortality rates to predict million of US deaths. And you just can't do that.

People are scared enough without completely terrifying them.

When the tv lawyer ads disappear, I will start to worry.

No chance whatsoever China's numbers are in the ballpark of accuracy.

At the end of next flu season, CDCs numbers will be accurate. Deaths will depend on treatment success.

PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

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Never said that and thanks for the asinine comment. I care about mortality rate because posters on here were using mortality rates to predict millions of US deaths. Which I do not think will happen. But since I have asinine thoughts attributed to me that I never espoused, why believe me?

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I have seen one poster say millions of US deaths.

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How many do you estimate? More or less than the seasonal flu?

People have been quoting the one study that said something like a 1.5 million US deaths non stop.

Fenrir said:

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People have been quoting the one study that said something like a 1.5 million US deaths non stop.

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Yep.

Quote:

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When this is all over, look for massive confirmation bias and pyrrhic celebration by elites. There will be vain cheering in the halls of power as Main Street sits in pieces. Expect no apology, that would be political suicide. Rather, expect to be given a Jedi mind trick of "I'm the government and I helped."

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So many truth bombs in that article. I think is deserves its own thread. I can't believe the hysteria many people are suffering over this.

PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Why do you care about mortality rate at all? Measure the rates of death and calculate its trend line. This whole, if we test less we'll have fewer dead is asinine .

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Never said that and thanks for the asinine comment. I care about mortality rate because posters on here were using mortality rates to predict millions of US deaths. Which I do not think will happen. But since I have asinine thoughts attributed to me that I never espoused, why believe me?

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I have seen one poster say millions of US deaths.

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Wasn't the one imperial college study saying like 1.8 million deaths in the US? That's been spread around here quite a bit.

Maybe not a poster outright saying it, but it's been the insinuation from a few people.

claym711 said:

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No chance whatsoever China's numbers are in the ballpark of accuracy.

At the end of next flu season, CDCs numbers will be accurate. Deaths will depend on treatment success.

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OK, but they are open again and shipping products from their factories. That's a fact. Did they magically kill the virus in two months or did it work through the country and do what viruses do? Did millions of their citizens die? Bet not.

PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

---

South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

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Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

Did China freak out the world with their shutdowns? World-wide social media was buzzing about how China was shutting down, cremation centers couldn't keep up, pulling people off the streets and putting them in boxes, etc. If China does not overreact, maybe the rest of the world takes a practical, vigilant stance and we don't have to go through these shutdowns and financial upheaval. Or, was China and the rest of the world's reaction proper, and because of our reactions this will pass in a month or two and we can all get back to normal sooner than if we let it run its course? Confirmation bias will tell us we saved ourselves by reacting strongly ad swiftly, so we may never know.

AgLiving06 said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

---

South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

---

Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

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Exactly. That is all I am asking.

Having worked pretty extensively in the ER as a med student and internal medicine intern, I can vouch that the hospitals got "over run" every flu season.

And if we had published and televised cases of flu and deaths from flu(which were vastly underestimated and usually attributed to other co morbitities) people would freak out.

AgLiving06 said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Agnzona said:

---

The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

---

South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

---

Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

---

I hear you, and the actual death rate of CV IS manageable if taken in a vacuum. Now look at the HOSPITALIZATION rate of the Flu. Per CDC it is about 1.5% in a bad year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Now run those numbers with a 15% hospitalization rate and you run into bad numbers. Now a hospital is overrun and people run into issues normally manageable. Yes, 80% will get over without major issues, but the other 20% can cause MASS issues that go beyond the mortality rate of CV.

Robk said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

---

South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

---

Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

---

I hear you, and the actual death rate of CV IS manageable if taken in a vacuum. Now look at the HOSPITALIZATION rate of the Flu. Per CDC it is about 1.5% in a bad year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Now run those numbers with a 15% hospitalization rate and you run into bad numbers. Now the a hospital is overrun and people run into issues normally manageable issues. Yes a 80% will get over without major issues, but the other 20% can cause MASS issues that go beyond the mortality rate of CV.

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Agree and this is worse than the flu as far as hospitalization.