My wife is a physician and medical director for urgent care clinics at a Texas hospital system:

-today's recent crisis is determining how many clinics will need to close next week due to provider shortages with all kids out of school. Likely will keep 50% of clinics open at a time. Providers at main hospitals will retain access to childcare.

-she authorized full telemedicine shifts for all 30 trained physicians this morning where they can work 24/7 from home as they are able in between regular shifts. Telemedicine was just brought online for them last year and they had been running 1-2 doctors on shifts per day normally.

just in the last minute, USA +8 and +96. Guess testing is starting to pick up more than a handful a day.

Covid-19 live update

I don't disagree.

Proposition Joe said:

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I don't disagree.

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My 11 year old son has been running fever most of the week (spring break no less) and finally was feeling better this morning and had no fever. He still has a lingering cough, which is not uncommon for him this time of year. My wife called the doctor to see if they could prescribe a steroid for the cough like they've done the last time or two.

They had him come in and told my wife that they needed to call from the parking lot and he's be escorted in as a precautionary measure.

Since he didn't have a fever, the nurse practitioner surmised it had been a virus but there was no need to test him for anything as he was mostly better. The only rec was if he started running a fever again have him come back. Even said it could've been corona

I'm wondering if this has been really common and it is greatly skewing the numbers and the bulk of ones reported are the older people that are probably more prone to go to a doc every time they develop a cough.

Jet Black said:

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Cone is just as bad the other way. Calling it a war ffs.

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Seemed to work for South Korea, China and Singapore. Jury is still out on North Korea.

A few European leaders have likened it to a war as well.

France following Spain and Italy.

from early in the Italy outbreak

i think the 30% symptomatic would include some form of pneumonia, most likely walking and relative shortness of breath

now this cohort is only 22% 19-50, so two things

- if that cohort expanded to be more representative of the population i would generally expect the pneumonia % to decrease relative to milder symptoms. younger people are going to get sick, but not at the same rate of severity as older people. otherwise the fatality numbers make no sense.

- this is at the beginning, where you're going to see the absolute worst people in the hospital.

so I'd say your odds at getting walking pneumonia are probably 1 in 6. that's ****ty and you'll feel bad for weeks.

I misrememberated and conflated two studies.

There is the JAMA study which had the big numbers and the 1 / 80 / 14 / 5 breakdown (1% asymptomatic).
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Then there is the NEJM study of 1099 patients.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

91% of people who were hospitalized were diagnosed with pneumonia.

On admission, the degree of severity of Covid-19 was categorized as nonsevere in 926 patients and severe in 173 patients.

So in this study you have a very high rate of pneumonia diagnosis even in the nonsevere group.

PJYoung said:

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France following Spain and Italy.

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All third-world level ****holes. The horrible systems of the Germans and British are up next. /s

PJYoung said:

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Racist.

you don't think mass mobilization is required? no field hospitals? no mass testing facilities away from the main hospitals? no funneling of public resources into R&D, infrastructure, and essential supply chains?

i mean, that sounds like war mobilization to me

China working nonstop to convince the gullible that the US is really the one to blame.

"Big Lie" Campaign

It's possible but a couple of things to consider. Most reports say kids are asymptomatic.

The other thing is that if this had been community spread for a while, when they sequence the genome of samples for positive people they'd see viruses with lots more mutations than expected - more generations removed from samples that definitely came from outside the country.

If that happens, it'll get reported.

Illuminaggie said:

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PJYoung said:

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France following Spain and Italy.

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All third-world level ****holes. The horrible systems of the Germans and British are up next. /s

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Cognitive dissonance.

It can't happen here because Italy, France, Germany and England are 3rd world countries.

Really?

EDIT: and we have our advantages, less public transit, less population density, our big lonely houses separate from our neighbors.

But hospital bed capacity is gonna be a huge issue for us in May. Nooooo doubt.

PJYoung said:

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Can we be more like Denmark now, Bernie?

PJYoung said:

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Lol

Two things: "/s" means sarcasm, and while you are correct on the bed shortage, we are actually very strong in ICU capacity (more than 2X per capita than Italy) so it will take a huge wave to have quite the issue we are seeing there.

Not impossible, but less likely.

My company was planning to do a crawfish boil to raise money for charity, We just canceled it. This sh/t is getting real!

Remember the days when the Diamond Princess was number 2 on the list. #memories

DX2011 said:

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Two things: "/s" means sarcasm, and while you are correct on the bed shortage, we are actually very strong in ICU capacity (more than 2X per capita than Italy) so it will take a huge wave to have quite the issue we are seeing there.

Not impossible, but less likely.

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Ha oops.

And yes, our ICU capacity is great but we still are forecast to be full sometime in May. I hope they're wrong.

Maybe we will have enough time at that point to have developed some of the promising treatments that China and South Korea have figured out and we will miss out on the worst the virus has to offer.

KorbinDallas said:

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Remember the days when the Diamond Princess was number 2 on the list. #memories

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Going over 10,000 daily cases outside of China for the first time today.

Great Job PJYoung. Keep that chart coming. I appreciate your updates.

Bregxit said:

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Goodnight Irene said:

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My 11 year old son has been running fever most of the week (spring break no less) and finally was feeling better this morning and had no fever. He still has a lingering cough, which is not uncommon for him this time of year. My wife called the doctor to see if they could prescribe a steroid for the cough like they've done the last time or two.

They had him come in and told my wife that they needed to call from the parking lot and he's be escorted in as a precautionary measure.

Since he didn't have a fever, the nurse practitioner surmised it had been a virus but there was no need to test him for anything as he was mostly better. The only rec was if he started running a fever again have him come back. Even said it could've been corona

I'm wondering if this has been really common and it is greatly skewing the numbers and the bulk of ones reported are the older people that are probably more prone to go to a doc every time they develop a cough.

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We went through exactly the same thing with my 10YO daughter this week. She came home last Friday and said she wasn't feeling well. Thirty minutes later her temp jumped to 102 so we hit the urgent care for a flu test. That was negative. Fever over the weekend up to 103.2. Called her doc Monday and she had another flu test and a battery of other tests. All negative. Said she had a virus and to bring her back Thursday if she still had fever. Developed a cough and was 99.5 yesterday. This morning was 98.6 and has been since. No idea what she had.

And with the pollen storm going on my wife and I have no idea if we're getting sick or just allergied up lol. I am leaning allergies since we both hit the Zyrtec and Flonase and felt considerably better pretty much immediately.

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My 7 yo niece went through the same thing about 10-14 days ago (Katy area). Flu and pneumonia came back negative, just sent her home to kick whatever unknown virus it was.

China's first patient...that they can trace....was Nov 17.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Quote:

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Coronavirus: China's first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17

• Government records suggest first person infected with new disease may have been a Hubei resident aged 55, but 'patient zero' has yet to be confirmed
• Documents seen by the Post could help scientists track the spread of the disease and perhaps determine its source

The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19 , the disease caused by the novel
coronavirus , can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post.

Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point.

Some of the cases were likely backdated after health authorities had tested specimens taken from suspected patients.

Interviews with whistle-blowers from the medical community suggest Chinese doctors only realised they were dealing with a new disease in late December.

Scientists have been trying to map the pattern of the early transmission of Covid-19 since an epidemic was reported in the central China city of Wuhan in January, two months before the outbreak became a global health crisis.


Understanding how the disease spread and determining how undetected and undocumented cases contributed to its transmission will greatly improve their understanding of the size of that threat.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

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You know, what are the odds that Canada only has a couple hundred cases and Trudeau's wife is one of them. Bet you ass there are a **** ton of infections out there that are so mild as to not event be on the radar.

4 months......

Should start killing off half the population any day now.

Quote:

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The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19 , the disease caused by the novel coronavirus , can be traced back to November 17,

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So a person known to have clear distinct symptoms. How many infected people, say under 40 were walking around with a bit of headache and lingering cough. for days/weeks prior transmitted to others...?

Trump is making his announcement now.

Ciboag96 said:

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You know, what are the odds that Canada only has a couple hundred cases and Trudeau's wife is one of them. Bet you ass there are a **** ton of infections out there that are so mild as to not event be on the radar.

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I think this is the case. Tom hanks, NBA, BRazil, Canada, Iran.... It seems maybe it's far more wide spread than reported, and we are just tracking those tied to initial cases who had severe symptoms.

I had flu symptoms in January, headache, mild on off fever for two days. Fever maxed out at 101, so I just stayed home, didn't see a doctor or get any meds. Doubt it was covid19, but how many possibly had covid the last few weeks that had a mild fever and just took an ibuprofen and never got treated or tested. I suspect a lot.