PJYoung said:
i generally agree with this
this first wave is going to be panic-filled and distressing
we're going to really stress out our economy trying to flatten the peak and buy time
i think the subsequent waves will be less disruptive and more geared on older people basically having to shelter in place for a month until the wave clears (while the younger people take social distancing measures and we test and contract trace to shorten the peak).
the thing about this is that younger people can get the virus, generally be okay, get high quality med attention and survive and THEN BUILD THE HERD IMMUNITY
we can't do this thing where we all coop up forever because not enough people get infected in a wave without triggering a quarantine
i think it's going to be two years of disruption that dampens over time. maybe less with medical breakthroughs.
but it stands to reason if the HC infrastructure can't handle the severe cases and the majority of the severe ICU cases are over 60 and people over 60 aren't the majority of the working population, then at some point we have to tell them to stay home and that we'll take care of them, make sure they are fed, but they need to stay put and stay away from other people for a long while.