Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Quote:

---

My fear is utility workers, water, sewer, garbage, power, natural gas being off work for extended time. There will have to be some way for these types to work around this mess.

---

That didn't happen, even in Wuhan.

---

You get arrested or potentially disappeared if you don't work in China, the same doesn't happen here.

---

And 100% of utility workers got sick.

So now we have test kits for "presumptive" covid-19? I've only heard of test kits that "confirm" covid-19. This is a prime example of the media pushing panic. The panic is causing way more damage globally than the actual virus. This makes absolutely no sense.

I thought a "presumptive" case was a positive test, but not confirmed because that test has to be verified by the CDC.

Do I have that wrong?

VaultingChemist said:

---

How fake news can be deadly.

---

Mass hysteria is a hell of a drug.

leakypipes said:

---

I thought a "presumptive" case was a positive test, but not confirmed because that test has to be verified by the CDC.

Do I have that wrong?

---

Exactly correct.

Shack165 said:

---

So now we have test kits for "presumptive" covid-19? I've only heard of test kits that "confirm" covid-19. This is a prime example of the media pushing panic. The panic is causing way more damage globally than the actual virus. This makes absolutely no sense.

---

"Presumptive" means the test kit showed a positive result, but they send another sample to the CDC for a more specific test which is highly accurate.

This is done because the test kits, are not 100%. There was a story yesterday about woman who tested positive for the virus, but the CDC test showed she was negative. She since tested negative again with a test kit result.

So is 90% of this thread still people fighting over what CV will do to the world?

KorbinDallas said:

---

aginlakeway said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

mathguy86 said:

---

KidDoc said:

---

I've been pretty much correct on this whole course. My next prediction is widespread school closures & work from home in the next month and more stock market nuttiness. I hope to buy in some more stocks in about a month.

---

Widespread school closures will be a big problem. It will create a cascade effect. . Too many parents work and rely on day care for toddlers and effectively day care for K-8. Unsupervised kids at home won't work and will force at least one parent to take off work. But work at home you say. Thats great for the white collar worker who can, but the blue collar worker can't. That means taking leave of some kind. And if they don't have any that means unpaid leave. And way too many blue collar workers live paycheck to paycheck. What happens to their debt service when the paycheck stops?

If the Govt (local and or state) decides to close schools the Feds better have a plan to keep money flowing.

---

My fear is utility workers, water, sewer, garbage, power, natural gas being off work for extended time. There will have to be some way for these types to work around this mess.

---

Those are the two key words ...

---

Unfortunately lots of people's fears are coming true right now. How much has happened that everyone said couldn't or wouldn't? Remember how everyone said "our hygiene is better, it won't spread here", "this won't disrupt trade" and all that stuff?

I work in utilities and you can bet my ass will be at work if I'm not sick and risking spread to those around me. I also know those working under me don't have the same view. Those with kids will be in a bind if schools close.

Maybe I'm being irrational but if your inside the industries you see the weaknesses.

---

I'm inside the industries. The same industries that work 24-7 during hurricanes and floods to maintain and restore your power and utilities.

I'll try to stick to data not my opinions.

Big surprise, 67% of those in the Wuhan based study below who died had a comorbidity (high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, COPD). 48% of those in the study had some form of comorbidity.

Median duration of viral shedding from illness onset 20 days, longest being 37 days, shortest being 8 days.

Average time from onset to death or discharge 21 days.

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/S0140-6736(20)30566-3

Quote:

---

We need to get to 1,200 deaths by the end of March before it can be as bad as the flu. Then, do it again in April. Then, keep it up at 1,200 deaths per month for 10 consecutive months after. Then, it will at least approach flu numbers.

---

That is not how this works. The concern is exponential growth, not linear growth. There was a great video posted over the weekend that explains it. On February 26, we had 62 cases and 1 death total; yesterday when we had 554 cases and 22 deaths total. Each day the increase in new cases has averaged about 1.16 of the previous days total. If we continue at that rate we can expect 17,500 cases and 595 deaths (assuming the WHO number of 3.4%) by the end of March. The problem is, that if that number doesn't slow down, by the end of April you could see 1.5 million cases and 53,000 deaths.

Not sure, but it doesn't make sense that we have test kits being sent out to medical facilities and the results when read by a lab in said medical facility cannot confirm the results. Waiting on confirmation by the CDC seems extremely inefficient. I thought that situation and a lack of test kits was the problem they were trying to correct?

BigN--00 said:

---

Quote:

---

We need to get to 1,200 deaths by the end of March before it can be as bad as the flu. Then, do it again in April. Then, keep it up at 1,200 deaths per month for 10 consecutive months after. Then, it will at least approach flu numbers.

---

That is not how this works. The concern is exponential growth, not linear growth. There was a great video posted over the weekend that explains it. On February 26, we had 62 cases and 1 death total; yesterday when we had 554 cases and 22 deaths total. Each day the increase in new cases has been averaged about 1.16 of the previous days total. If we continue at that rate we can expect 17,500 cases and 595 deaths (assuming the WHO number of 3.4%) by the end of March. The problem is, that if that number doesn't slow down, by the end of April you could see 1.5 million cases and 53,000 deaths.

---

And this is why you try to slow the spread by being taking precautions. South Korea and China have both hit their peak infection rates and are decreasing. They worked hard to contain the spread and apparently have. Italy doesn't look like its hit the peak yet.

China probably killed more people in their quarantining efforts than have died of the virus in the US so far.

Shack165 said:

---

Not sure, but it doesn't make sense that we have test kits being sent out to medical facilities and the results when read by a lab in said medical facility cannot confirm the results. Waiting on confirmation by the CDC seems extremely inefficient. I thought that situation and a lack of test kits was the problem they were trying to correct?

---

If you are a presumptive case, you are being told to self-quarantine and then they start contact-tracing. But I agree, it's concerning that South Korea has tested over 140,000 cases and we are having to be much more selective with who gets tested.

Dow closes down - 2,015.58 / -7.79%

Most certainly has something to do with CV, but my guess is it is in larger part due to 1) market correction and 2) the dick measuring contest between Russia and Saudi Arabia

TurkeyBaconLeg said:

---

I guess the CT scans that China is doing does not involve the injection of contrast dye? (This helps to show up parts of the body not always clearly seen, like blood vessels, the kidneys and liver.)

That stuff is only recommended to be injected like once every 5 years or something...the side effects of the dye is not very good and can have health risks.

---

Simple CT scan shows the ground glass effect in the lungs, which is what they are basing diagnosis on.

IrishTxAggie said:

---

---

This seems like an extremely important tweet. How good is the dataset here?

I Have Spoken said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

---

This seems like an extremely important tweet. How good is the dataset here?

---

They look similar to some of the South Korean numbers, which is a very good dataset for identifying as many cases as possible, but likely problematic since their number of resolved cases is still very low.

Those numbers suggest a death rate of ~10x for young people compared to the seasonal flu, even among sub 50 people.

Yep, seems to be in line with all the hard data we are seeing.

BigN--00 said:

---

Quote:

---

We need to get to 1,200 deaths by the end of March before it can be as bad as the flu. Then, do it again in April. Then, keep it up at 1,200 deaths per month for 10 consecutive months after. Then, it will at least approach flu numbers.

---

That is not how this works. The concern is exponential growth, not linear growth. There was a great video posted over the weekend that explains it. On February 26, we had 62 cases and 1 death total; yesterday when we had 554 cases and 22 deaths total. Each day the increase in new cases has averaged about 1.16 of the previous days total. If we continue at that rate we can expect 17,500 cases and 595 deaths (assuming the WHO number of 3.4%) by the end of March. The problem is, that if that number doesn't slow down, by the end of April you could see 1.5 million cases and 53,000 deaths.

---

. That's the rub, I think. We simply haven't seen sustained exponential growth with this thing yet (cases or deaths). It will be interesting to see if Italy tops out in the next couple of weeks.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

it's the Chinese dataset out of Wuhan

plus those were naive numbers (aka not every case had been fully resolved)

so it's the double whammy of early reporting and trusting the ChiComs

the SoKo data is better, but they are getting ahead of their outbreak (and we aren't positioned to do the same) and many of their cases are still unresolved (a lot of people who will die haven't died)

So, the South Korea stats include those who are asymptomatic? If so, I'd agree that # is very disconcerting.

I Have Spoken said:

---

So, the South Korea stats include those who are asymptomatic? If so, I'd agree that # is very disconcerting.

---

SK is testing over 10,000 a day, or was at some point. Of all the data they should have captured the most asymptomatic People due to volume of testing. At least so far, things may change once other countries build up some steam.

i believe so, yes

same with the cruise ship

just assume the IFR is ~1%

also assume that the R0 stateside will be much less than China - a combination of heightened paranoia, hygiene, private businesses taking this very seriously, social distancing (both mandated and voluntary), and eventual mass testing (that might take until May, but I assume the momentum will be tremendous once it gets fully ramped up).

that's how I see this playing out at least

the paranoia won't stop until the testing ramps up en masse. until then we're flying largely blind and just praying to avoid a North Italy outbreak

Got it. Worrisome figure then. That's quite a few dead people if it were to hit like common flu.

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official 'safe distance' and stay in air for 30 minutes

Quote:

---

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres further than the "safe distance" advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

---

Social distancing needs to be extended.

older folks basically need to shelter in place and minimize contact with others until June, i would say

venture out for groceries (or have them delivered) and watch a lot of Netflix

We are doubling cases outside of China every 5 days or so. Maybe a little less.

what's the attack rate at those distances/times?

PJYoung said:

---

leakypipes said:

---

I thought a "presumptive" case was a positive test, but not confirmed because that test has to be verified by the CDC.

Do I have that wrong?

---

Exactly correct.

---

Actually, the CDC does not use "presumptive". If they did then anyone with cold and flu symptoms could be considered "presumptive". There's a huge difference between being tested and a confirmation. The CDC refers to individuals to be tested as Patients Under Investigation(PUIs) for covid-19.
My point was that the media should not be reporting on the unconfirmed. It serves no other purpose than to cause panic.

cone said:

---

what's the attack rate at those distances/times?

---

Not sure.