There's no evidence that CV can be prevented by gunning it out of the air.... sorry
China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission
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Last: 3 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Premium said:
Is it dumb to not send kids to things like Spring Break gymnastics camps and Trolley rides for fun?
Send your kids and tell them to have fun and don't worry about it. Just bring some wipes and hand sanitizer with you for them to use every so often.
Maybe not the CV virus, but probably could be considered a virus nonetheless. Carry on.
Looks like I need some range time... but dammit, the people there.
Looks like I need some range time... but dammit, the people there.
This is the correct answer.IrishTxAggie said:Premium said:
Is it dumb to not send kids to things like Spring Break gymnastics camps and Trolley rides for fun?
Send your kids and tell them to have fun and don't worry about it. Just bring some wipes and hand sanitizer with you for them to use every so often.
My brother just called me stupid and have my head in the sand. He lives in Oregon and said it's coming full force. Now I must stop talking to him. Go in with my life
Quote:
4) it's not just the elderly - SK is starting to report 1% in their 40s
I know you are just quoting him, but I am following the SK website that updates their stats, and people in their 40s represent about 14% of the infected. There has been one death, and the mortality rate is 0.10 %, not 1%.
I wonder what the discrepancy is.
what is meant by 1% in their 40s?
the overall IFR right now is 0.7% in SoKo so a 1% 40-49 IFR would be surprising
Wuhan wasn't that high with a much higher overall IFR
the overall IFR right now is 0.7% in SoKo so a 1% 40-49 IFR would be surprising
Wuhan wasn't that high with a much higher overall IFR
The frito-lay closure mentioned earlier has been lifted
My brother just called me stupid and have my head in the sand. He lives in Oregon and said it's coming full force. Now I must stop talking to him. Go in with my life
Bingo Bango Bongo said:
The frito-lay closure mentioned earlier has been lifted
So they ARE gong to work? I know I'll get a list of all companies shutting down as the reason why we should.
Premium said:Bingo Bango Bongo said:
The frito-lay closure mentioned earlier has been lifted
So they ARE gong to work? I know I'll get a list of all companies shutting down as the reason why we should.
Yes. Was announced Friday night because 4 consultants were ill, but after being evaluated, not coronavirus so campuses open Monday. So effectively, it wasn't really shut down at all
If CV kills 1,200 in the USA during the month of March, it will catch the flu's monthly average.
If it then, turns around and kills 1,200 again in April, it will have kept up with the flu monthly average two months in a row.
Then, it will need to continue to average 1,200 deaths each month for 10 additional months to be as bad as the flu.
I'm trying to put my finger on it but something isn't adding up.
If it then, turns around and kills 1,200 again in April, it will have kept up with the flu monthly average two months in a row.
Then, it will need to continue to average 1,200 deaths each month for 10 additional months to be as bad as the flu.
I'm trying to put my finger on it but something isn't adding up.
Post it again!
IrishTxAggie said:dmart90 said:IrishTxAggie said:S. Korea is currently sitting at 50 deaths........in a population of 52MM... Can I use those numbers?aTmAg said:Numbers from honest nations. Then do statistics based on that.IrishTxAggie said:What numbers do we go off of then?dmart90 said:Rock1982 said:IrishTxAggie said:
So the country that was ground zero for this is beginning to wind down. This country is ~20% of the world's population. All said and done it looks like they'll have less than 4,000 deaths all while having worse health and horrid healthcare compared to the rest of the developed nations.
.00000235294% of their population....Now, back to your next regularly scheduled apocalypse.
My hope is that your are right and this fades.
As do I. But if you believe ANY of the numbers coming out of China, I have some ocean front property in central Texas that I would love to show you!
I think that is reasonable. But this thing is just getting started there. I applaud their response. It's been timely and effective so far.
Their first patient was January 20th in a religious sect that spread like wildfire within the sect in Daegu. They're over 6wks into this and it appears to be slowing. What do you mean just getting started?
If you think 6 weeks of data is sufficient...
“Ambition is when you expect yourself to close the gap between what you have and what you want.
Entitlement is when you expect others to close the gap between what you have and what you want.”— James Clear
Entitlement is when you expect others to close the gap between what you have and what you want.”— James Clear
Quote:
I already did the math on this a few pages back and was chastised for trusting the Chinese numbers because gubmint...I then offered to do it based on the S. Korean numbers and not really a peep after that.
Let's take a closer look at SK numbers. Of 7313 cases, 50 died and 130 have recovered. Of 180 resolved cases, 27% died. There are still 7133 active cases. What percentage are in hospitals? How many are in ICU?
From latest Chinese study of 391 cases of which 225 have recovered:
"Thus far, only three have died. These occurred 35-44 days from symptom onset and 27-33 days from confirmation."
So far SK's numbers are looking worse than China, as far as ratio of deaths to recoveries.
Seeing reports that Portugal's president has cancelled all events and is self-isolating for 14 days after he visited a school that ended up being closed due to one of their students being admitted into the hospital.
Doesn't sound like he is at a big risk of exposure...but he is in his 70s...
https://www.portugalresident.com/covid-19-portugal-round-up/
Doesn't sound like he is at a big risk of exposure...but he is in his 70s...
https://www.portugalresident.com/covid-19-portugal-round-up/
Quote:
The child didn't actually 'meet the president', nor did any of his classmates but the fact that the school is now closed, and members of it were in the President's official residence, has been enough for the Head of State to cancel all diary engagements for the next two weeks.
Says the official site of the presidency "at the moment in which all Portuguese are showing elevated civic maturity in the face of this viral outbreak, the President of the Republic believes he should give a strong example of prevention".
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
I wish we had data on the Italian cohort
what's the age range of people in ICU
they are an old country but is the elderly attack rate more or less their population proportion
what's the age range of people in ICU
they are an old country but is the elderly attack rate more or less their population proportion
I truly get your point...but there is good reason to suspect that the 3500 number is very very low. We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak.IrishTxAggie said:
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
What about Flat Earthers?aginlakeway said:the last of the bohemians said:
In fairness to the scaremongers, CV is actually a risk to society as opposed to the religion of nicer climates, I mean climate change.
Good point. So this is worse than climate change?
lunchbox said:I truly get your point...but there is good reason to suspect that the 3500 number is very very low. We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak.IrishTxAggie said:
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
So you get to create your own narrative because you don't believe the numbers coming out of China but we can't use numbers from the WHO, CDC, and/or National Health Commission?
lunchbox said:I truly get your point...but there is good reason to suspect that the 3500 number is very very low. We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak.IrishTxAggie said:
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
So whose numbers do you believe?
Pretty sure we'll know here in a couple months.Quote:
We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak
Use whatever numbers you want. I'm glad to see that the countries with open data don't show a huge fatality rate. I am among those really concerned that CV is going to be a huge drain on medical resources, which will cascade down...I wouldn't be surprised if flu deaths go up as a result.IrishTxAggie said:lunchbox said:I truly get your point...but there is good reason to suspect that the 3500 number is very very low. We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak.IrishTxAggie said:
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
So you get to create your own narrative because you don't believe the numbers coming out of China but we can't use numbers from the WHO, CDC, and/or National Health Commission?
Maybe you should be asking your kid's grandparents as to how they might feel about that, and not Texags.Premium said:
Is it dumb to not send kids to things like Spring Break gymnastics camps and Trolley rides for fun?
lunchbox said:I truly get your point...but there is good reason to suspect that the 3500 number is very very low. We'll never know how many really died in China due to the outbreak.IrishTxAggie said:
*****..The 17-18 flu season killed 80,000 in the US alone...but you know, ~3500 in almost three months across the globe is we're all gonna die.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
I think the problem is we can't trust either the numerator or denominator from China and they make up the majority of the data we have.
Why are we posting data like it's either the flu or this?
Those flu cases are still going to exist. They are still going to be going to the hospital and needing a bed and care.
So all of this, whatever # you choose to believe whether it be high or low, is going to be IN ADDITION.
Most people aren't worried about this sweeping the nation and causing everyone to get sick and die. The biggest worry is medical over-crowding (lack of hospital beds, lack of meds, etc...) and the trickle-down impact that has.
Those flu cases are still going to exist. They are still going to be going to the hospital and needing a bed and care.
So all of this, whatever # you choose to believe whether it be high or low, is going to be IN ADDITION.
Most people aren't worried about this sweeping the nation and causing everyone to get sick and die. The biggest worry is medical over-crowding (lack of hospital beds, lack of meds, etc...) and the trickle-down impact that has.
KidDoc said:
From local docs and friends in Aggieland and Katy testing is NOT BEING DONE. I know Trump said there are plenty of tests but I have had multiple peers with high risk cases that the health department refused to test because they have not been to the 5 countries.
Yep, I was afraid of that. I know some olds in the BCS with respiratory issues who are planning on sheltering in place when all the spring breakers (both students and families) begin returning.
Of course, this will also be hell for multigenerational households, as the olds won't be able to fully isolate themselves from their (less vulnerable) kids and grandkids.
This has the potential to get really ugly, really fast.
for the no big dealers
how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?
how do you avoid a Wuhan / Northern Italy outbreak in the USA?
This Corona virus could certainly impact Social Security and Medicare expenditures if it continues through the elderly population.
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