China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

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AgFan2015
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2:45p, 3/8/20
Quote:

March 08, 2020 - 11:07 AM EDT
US Army orders stop to movement of troops in South Korea and Italy due to coronavirus


The U.S. Army has ordered a halt to the movement of troops and their families into and out of Italy and South Korea as part of its response to the novel coronavirus.

U.S. Forces Korea said in a statement on Sunday that the Army had ordered "all Army soldiers and family members moving to or from South Korea" to postpone their travel due to concerns about the coronavirus, which has infected thousands in the country. The order also applies to soldiers scheduled to attend professional military education in the U.S.

The announcement was made shortly after the Army unveiled an identical measure for troops stationed in Italy. U.S. Army Garrison Italy commander Col. Dan Vogel said in a Facebook video message Saturday that the halt to movement would take place "for the next 60 days or until further notice."


https://thehill.com/policy/defense/486498-us-military-orders-stop-to-movement-for-troops-in-south-korea-and-italy-due-to
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goodAg80
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 2:52p, 3/8/20
AG
AgsMyDude said:
goodAg80 said:
Most of us (>99.9%) will survive and recover although some may have some cell damage


Who is us? The infected, the general population, etc. ? If you are saying 99.9% of those that are infected will survive, I don't know what to say.
In China there are over 1.4B people.

0.1% of China is 1.4M people. I predicted that their deaths will be less. I think that will be true elsewhere too.
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lunchbox
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2:53p, 3/8/20
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Nuclear Scramjet
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In reply to [removed post] • 2:53p, 3/8/20
SoupNazi2001 said:
When I go out into the real world in DFW everything is completely normal. When I go online and read this thread or Twitter it sounds like the apocalypse. Going on a ski trip in a few days for spring break. Enjoy your bunkers everyone.


90% of the population lives paycheck to paycheck, has no savings, could not save $1000 if their lives depended on it and are swimming in debt. Do you really want to use them all as an example to follow?
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aginlakeway
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In reply to goodAg80 • 2:57p, 3/8/20
AG
goodAg80 said:
AgsMyDude said:
goodAg80 said:
Most of us (>99.9%) will survive and recover although some may have some cell damage


Who is us? The infected, the general population, etc. ? If you are saying 99.9% of those that are infected will survive, I don't know what to say.
In China there are over 1.4B people.

0.1% of China is 1.4M people. I predicted that their deaths will be less. I think that will be true elsewhere too.
So China has 1.4 billion. And how many have died? And what percentage is that?

I wonder if more will die in China in 2020 of other causes.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:01p, 3/8/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
goodAg80 said:
AgsMyDude said:
goodAg80 said:
Most of us (>99.9%) will survive and recover although some may have some cell damage


Who is us? The infected, the general population, etc. ? If you are saying 99.9% of those that are infected will survive, I don't know what to say.
In China there are over 1.4B people.

0.1% of China is 1.4M people. I predicted that their deaths will be less. I think that will be true elsewhere too.
So China has 1.4 billion. And how many have died? And what percentage is that?

I wonder if more will die in China in 2020 of other causes.


I already did the math on this a few pages back and was chastised for trusting the Chinese numbers because gubmint...I then offered to do it based on the S. Korean numbers and not really a peep after that.
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KidDoc
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3:01p, 3/8/20
AG
I missed several pages of this thread it is just too fast to keep up with.

From local docs and friends in Aggieland and Katy testing is NOT BEING DONE. I know Trump said there are plenty of tests but I have had multiple peers with high risk cases that the health department refused to test because they have not been to the 5 countries.

When we can actually start testing the non critical cases the numbers will fire up. The main questions now:

- What is the real fatality rate? I expect 1% give or take. Much higher in elderly
- What is the real hospital rate/severe illness? Looking like 20% I suspect it will end up 5-10%.
- Can hospitals handle the volume? - this is going to be the biggest problem IMO
- Will we go on a large scale quarantine?- like Italy and other countries- shut down almost everything for 3 weeks and smoosh the rate at a huge hit to the economy.

Vaccine will come since there is now money and motivation. The biggest problem is the vaccine for SARS (also Coronavirus) actually made things WORSE so it will need a good amount of time to test for safety.

It is nice to see people actually learning a bit of germ theory though.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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aginlakeway
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3:03p, 3/8/20
AG
2017 top causes of death in China ...

Stroke 2,098,609
Coronary Heart Disease 1,597,170
Lung Disease 1,011,931
Lung Cancers 635,640
Liver Cancer 396,791
Stomach Cancer 326,453
Alzheimers/Dementia 312,812
Hypertension 280,611
Road Traffic Accidents 268,127
Influenza and Pneumonia 217,062

So how many have died in 2020 from this virus?
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riverrataggie
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3:03p, 3/8/20
AG
Its really interesting, after reading this thread for about ten minutes, I start getting flu like symptoms. Once I stop reading, these symptoms go away.

It's like crack. Can't get away. I know how people who are addicting to drugs feel.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:04p, 3/8/20
AG
IrishTxAggie said:
aginlakeway said:
goodAg80 said:
AgsMyDude said:
goodAg80 said:
Most of us (>99.9%) will survive and recover although some may have some cell damage


Who is us? The infected, the general population, etc. ? If you are saying 99.9% of those that are infected will survive, I don't know what to say.
In China there are over 1.4B people.

0.1% of China is 1.4M people. I predicted that their deaths will be less. I think that will be true elsewhere too.
So China has 1.4 billion. And how many have died? And what percentage is that?

I wonder if more will die in China in 2020 of other causes.


I already did the math on this a few pages back and was chastised for trusting the Chinese numbers because gubmint...I then offered to do it based on the S. Korean numbers and not really a peep after that.
See chart in my last post ... 200k plus died of flu/pneumonia in China in 2017. No panic.

China right now death toll at 3,098. And losing steam ...
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riverrataggie
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:05p, 3/8/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
2017 top causes of death in China ...

Stroke 2,098,609
Coronary Heart Disease 1,597,170
Lung Disease 1,011,931
Lung Cancers 635,640
Liver Cancer 396,791
Stomach Cancer 326,453
Alzheimers/Dementia 312,812
Hypertension 280,611
Road Traffic Accidents 268,127
Influenza and Pneumonia 217,062

So how many have died in 2020 from this virus?


Yeah but these are planned deaths.
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3:14p, 3/8/20
Bobcat06
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3:18p, 3/8/20
AG
Can we please keep this thread focused on real world results of the pandemic (e.g. Italy on lockdown) rather than the super-convincing argument of "just the flu"?
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FamousAgg
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3:19p, 3/8/20
I don't see the point of the "this is overblown", "this is no big deal", "more people die of XYZ". It doesn't really matter how absurd or irrational you feel everyone is being, the actions will have effects even if you think it's stupid.

What is happening is what matters, the stock market falling rapidly, the huge travel disruption, severe disruption to trade. Regardless of the insanity and the panic, the events will have to be dealt with. Hopefully everyone is in a position to deal with the consequences.
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samurai_science
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:20p, 3/8/20
aginlakeway said:
2017 top causes of death in China ...

Stroke 2,098,609
Coronary Heart Disease 1,597,170
Lung Disease 1,011,931
Lung Cancers 635,640
Liver Cancer 396,791
Stomach Cancer 326,453
Alzheimers/Dementia 312,812
Hypertension 280,611
Road Traffic Accidents 268,127
Influenza and Pneumonia 217,062

So how many have died in 2020 from this virus?
How would we know? The numbers are hidden
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JP_Losman
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3:22p, 3/8/20
AG
There is now a Coronavirus XM radio station. XM121 if anyone wants up to minute news while on d road
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Tabasco
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In reply to Bobcat06 • 3:24p, 3/8/20
AG
Bobcat06 said:
Can we please keep this thread focused on real world results of the pandemic (e.g. Italy on lockdown) rather than the super-convincing argument of "just the flu"?


Yes please!
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Tabasco
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:24p, 3/8/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
2017 top causes of death in China ...

Stroke 2,098,609
Coronary Heart Disease 1,597,170
Lung Disease 1,011,931
Lung Cancers 635,640
Liver Cancer 396,791
Stomach Cancer 326,453
Alzheimers/Dementia 312,812
Hypertension 280,611
Road Traffic Accidents 268,127
Influenza and Pneumonia 217,062

So how many have died in 2020 from this virus?


Ok, we get it!

You have made your stance very clear.
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In reply to FamousAgg • 3:26p, 3/8/20
aginlakeway
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In reply to FamousAgg • 3:26p, 3/8/20
AG
KorbinDallas said:
I don't see the point of the "this is overblown", "this is no big deal", "more people die of XYZ". It doesn't really matter how absurd or irrational you feel everyone is being, the actions will have effects even if you think it's stupid.

What is happening is what matters, the stock market falling rapidly, the huge travel disruption, severe disruption to trade. Regardless of the insanity and the panic, the events will have to be dealt with. Hopefully everyone is in a position to deal with the consequences.


Agree 100 percent. Very well said. Thanks.
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OldArmy71
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In reply to KidDoc • 3:29p, 3/8/20
AG

Quote:
From local docs and friends in Aggieland and Katy testing is NOT BEING DONE. I know Trump said there are plenty of tests but I have had multiple peers with high risk cases that the health department refused to test because they have not been to the 5 countries.

What in the hell is taking so long? They keep holding news conferences saying that there are hundreds of thousands of tests going out.
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IrishTxAggie
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3:29p, 3/8/20
AG
Just so I know which sources are acceptable to use in here from now on, which ones are they? I've been told the CDC, WHO and National Health Commission can't be relied on, so where do I go to get my numbers from?
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C@LAg
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 3:30p, 3/8/20
Sine poena nulla lex.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to FamousAgg • 3:30p, 3/8/20
KorbinDallas said:
I don't see the point of the "this is overblown", "this is no big deal", "more people die of XYZ". It doesn't really matter how absurd or irrational you feel everyone is being, the actions will have effects even if you think it's stupid.

What is happening is what matters, the stock market falling rapidly, the huge travel disruption, severe disruption to trade. Regardless of the insanity and the panic, the events will have to be dealt with. Hopefully everyone is in a position to deal with the consequences.

Because you've got a handful of posters that want the internet points that go along with being able to say "see, I was right".

I mean, you literally just had the following argument on the previous page:


A: "I don't care what any health officials are saying - I just went to the supermarket and shook people's hands and kissed someone!".

B: "That wasn't very smart and you're likely at a higher risk now"

A: "Are you questioning my hygiene!?!?!?"


It's like your normal Politics Forum bull**** where one side thinks they are going to get extra internet points for this "Gotcha!" or that "this aged well!" except we're talking about something that could impacts tens of thousands of people.

It's much like the guy on the Harvey thread that continually screamed it was a non-event, couldn't post enough about how it was a non-event, and how he would eat crow if he was wrong. Well he was wrong, and guess what? Nobody gave two ****s about him eating crow because it's the ****ing internet and everyone was busy dealing with the aftermath.

Buy hey, internet points!
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aginlakeway
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 3:31p, 3/8/20
AG
OldArmy71 said:

Quote:
From local docs and friends in Aggieland and Katy testing is NOT BEING DONE. I know Trump said there are plenty of tests but I have had multiple peers with high risk cases that the health department refused to test because they have not been to the 5 countries.

What in the hell is taking so long? They keep holding news conferences saying that there are hundreds of thousands of tests going out.


Yep. Ridiculous. No idea why anyone would want government to be in charge of our health care.
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Big Al 1992
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3:32p, 3/8/20
AG
If you've seen previous posts you'll know how much I trust Dr Gottlieb through all this - calm, confident, very matter of fact, always points to data. His comments this morning are unsettling

1) this isn't the flu - unlike flu where you have mild, moderate , severe, and catastrophic this is either all or nothing - thankful severe case are few
2) that being said death doesn't start kicking in until 10 days of hospitalization- Italy and SK are just starting that phase so cross your fingers
3) 2 weeks ago Italy was at 9 cases, today 7K+ and 350 deaths, with unprecedented measures to stop spread - US is where they were 2 weeks ago - hold on to your butts
4) it's not just the elderly - SK is starting to report 1% in their 40s
5) with no sense of panic he says US has to start closing schools, business, events
6) better to do bailouts now (I know that's gonna set folks off) but you're gonna have to do it eventually and do now to give incentive to make tough mitigation decisions.

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lead
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In reply to lead • 3:32p, 3/8/20
New deaths in China over the last five days, in chronological order: 38, 31, 30, 28, 27. Total China deaths at 3100. China topped out at around 150 daily deaths.

New deaths outside China: 48, 53, 69, 78, 71. Total 484. (note that this doesn't include most recent 3/8 data which will show more tomorrow - I'm pulling from WHO).

New US deaths: 4, 3, 1, 1, 0. Total 11 (again, I'm using WHO numbers for the purpose of this update).
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:33p, 3/8/20
aginlakeway
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 3:36p, 3/8/20
AG
You literally misquoted posters.
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Rapier108
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:37p, 3/8/20
IrishTxAggie said:
Just so I know which sources are acceptable to use in here from now on, which ones are they? I've been told the CDC, WHO and National Health Commission can't be relied on, so where do I go to get my numbers from?
Random Twitter Accounts

Anyone on YouTube with PhD/MD in the name

Reddit

4Chan/8Chan

Facebook
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Cassius
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 3:41p, 3/8/20
IrishTxAggie said:
Just so I know which sources are acceptable to use in here from now on, which ones are they? I've been told the CDC, WHO and National Health Commission can't be relied on, so where do I go to get my numbers from?


Take the numbers on the John Hopkins report and multiply by 200. Those are the more likely numbers. Or maybe even a higher factor.
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FamousAgg
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3:41p, 3/8/20
Here is some more random Twitter.

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C@LAg
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3:43p, 3/8/20
Sine poena nulla lex.
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Premium
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3:43p, 3/8/20
AG
Is it dumb to not send kids to things like Spring Break gymnastics camps and Trolley rides for fun?
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Agsrback12
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:44p, 3/8/20
aginlakeway said:
goodAg80 said:
AgsMyDude said:
goodAg80 said:
Most of us (>99.9%) will survive and recover although some may have some cell damage


Who is us? The infected, the general population, etc. ? If you are saying 99.9% of those that are infected will survive, I don't know what to say.
In China there are over 1.4B people.

0.1% of China is 1.4M people. I predicted that their deaths will be less. I think that will be true elsewhere too.
So China has 1.4 billion. And how many have died? And what percentage is that?

I wonder if more will die in China in 2020 of other causes.


They have moved on from China to Italy, home to a very large elderly population.
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