China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,234,494 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Infection_Ag11
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k2aggie07 said:

That's not much of an answer. How do you know? What evidence do we have of that? I mean that would be cases that are not reported...so how are they being observed?


China has a large pool of people screened who are/were positive but remained asymptomatic. There are multiple published papers already on the reality of asymptomatic carriers who can transmit disease without ever being sick. In one case they have a cohort of nearly 10 people infected by a single individual who tested positive but never became ill.
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Ernest Tucker
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Infection_Ag11
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And for the record, that's COMPLETELY normal. Nearly all respiratory viruses behave this way. For instance, some years up to 50% of those infected with the flu never develop symptoms.

The only reason we see less of it with this virus is the relative lack of cross/partial immunity.
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YouBet
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HouAggie2007 said:

At this point I don't know which is more tinfoil hat crazy: oldag89 or the people who think this was a planned attack against trump
Let's go ahead and correct this talking point or put it on the right path.

Most of us don't think this was planned attack on Trump. However, it's a "don't let a crisis go to waste" moment for Democrats who will absolutely take advantage of this and do everything in their power to create a self-fulfilling prophecy to make this as bad as possible to hurt him.
SchizoAg
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brd79 said:

cone said:



this is Trump's Katrina


This is such bullsh*t propaganda. Are they also going to recommend that that elderly Americans avoid supermarkets? Buses? Movies? Malls? How about effing old folks homes because that's where a majority of the elderly caught it in this country.
as if old people aren't aware of the danger, and are just waiting for a word from Trump to tell them how to minimize their risk.... *facepalm*
TAMU1990
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One of my husband's consulting clients owns 80+ nursing homes nationwide. They have locked down their homes - no family members are allowed to visit. Only workers who are screened daily are allowed in. Smart move.
TyHolden
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Tamu2000
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Ran across an interesting analysis of the current situation and where we may be headed devoid of hype or hysteria, particularly the second half of the video.

Agsrback12
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This was my first thought when seeing this.
Agsrback12
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Tamu2000 said:

Ran across an interesting analysis of the current situation and where we may be headed devoid of hype or hysteria, particularly the second half of the video.




Lol
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
Bobcat06
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I find his videos very informative and largely ahead of the curve.

What information is he leaving out?
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
C@LAg
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C@LAg
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Anti-taxxer
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C@LAg said:

Oh for ****s sake. (not satire)

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom/Articles/ID/1108/New-case-reporting-for-COVID-19-in-Washington-state


Tomorrow the Washington State Department of Health will begin reporting COVID-19 case numbers at a new time with new metrics. In a daily web update at 2 p.m., the department will provide statewide numbers for:
  • Cases and deaths broken down by county
  • Cases by age range (in 10-year increments)
  • Cases by sex at birth
  • Total number of patients tested (some patients may have multiple tests)


Eye roll
scottimus
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Australia is more American than America...auctioning off Toilet paper out of a van at a flea market. Damn...

https://www.facebook.com/groups/CVupdates/permalink/1051787848528370/

We need to be more capitalistic. Lol.
Suppose I was an idiot. Suppose I was a member of congress. But, I repeat myself.
Bullpen Chias
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How will all the people running for President be able to campaign??
cone said:



this is Trump's Katrina
eric76
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Wendy 1990 said:

One of my husband's consulting clients owns 80+ nursing homes nationwide. They have locked down their homes - no family members are allowed to visit. Only workers who are screened daily are allowed in. Smart move.
I stopped by a nursing home / assisted living center on Wednesday evening. They didn't have any rules, but when coronavirus starts to reach this far, it won't surprise me if they do something.

The odd thing was that I said something about driving back in the dark and they invited me to spend the night there!
C@LAg
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EMSSki
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Yea that's just great... let's make our medical staff too sick too care for the patient.

C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
BlueMiles
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From the bottom of the article:

Note: Viruses not to scale.
VaultingChemist
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Recent non-peer-reviewed paper on the virus. Some good news, some bad.

Case study Covid-19 Spread

Quote:

The Shenzhen CDC identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases from January 14 to February 12, 2020 and 1286 close contacts. We compare cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimate the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and hospitalization. We estimate metrics of disease transmission and analyze factors influencing transmission risk. Findings Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45) and balanced between males (187) and females (204). Ninety-one percent had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. Three have died, 225 have recovered (median time to recovery is 32 days). Cases were isolated on average 4.6 days after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1.9 days. Household contacts and those travelling with a case where at higher risk of infection (ORs 6 and 7) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 15%, and children were as likely to be infected as adults. The observed reproductive number was 0.4, with a mean serial interval of 6.3 days.
Of 391 cases, only 3 had died, with 91% showing mild or moderate symptoms.
However, 225 have recovered with an average recovery time of 32 days.

Quote:

Based on 228 cases with known outcomes, we estimate that the median time to recovery is 32 days (95% CI 31,33) in 50-59 year olds, and is estimated to be significantly shorter in younger adults (e.g., 27 days in 20-29 year olds), and significantly longer in older groups (e.g., 36 days in those aged 70 or older). In multiple regression models including sex, age, baseline severity and method of detection, in addition to age, baseline severity was associated with time to recovery. Compared to those with mild symptoms, those with moderate symptoms were associated with a 19% (95% CI, 17%,22%) increase in time to recovery, and severe symptoms were associated with a 58% (95% CI, 55%, 61%) increase. Thus far, only three have died. These occurred 35-44 days from symptom onset and 27-33 days from confirmation.
AgFan2015
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AgFan2015
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Got' em?

Of course any POTUS will have the best care available. I doubt he or anyone in the administration will contract it and be hospitalized.

But we've seen in other instances how infectious CV is in crowded environments. The possible infections to others attending CPAC will be interesting to track.
Anti-taxxer
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Mr.Infectious said:



Got' em?

Of course any POTUS will have the best care available. I doubt he or anyone in the administration will contract it and be hospitalized.

But we've seen in other instances how infectious CV is in crowded environments. The possible infections to others attending CPAC will be interesting to track.

Exactly how many of the responses on there are celebrating that Trump has been exposed?
cone
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10 people got infected by a single asymptomatic?

what were their outcomes? also mild/no symptoms?
AgFan2015
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Do you really need to ask? Moths to a flame...
cone
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has he relayed any good news regarding it not being as airborne as was once thought?
AgFan2015
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France about to join the 1000 club. Again, political leaders checking in.


We are definitely going to have some of our own Mayors, City Councilmen, Governors, Congressmen etc. in the coming days/weeks.
Tanya 93
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C@LAg said:

Bruce Almighty said:

Hey Tanya, Mizzou has its first case.
she has already re-lined her windows and doors with a homemade tofu paste and drawn a huge circle around her house using elderberry syrup, so there is no way the virus is getting in.
Tapioca flour

Tofu can attract bugs
B-1 83
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Mr.Infectious said:



France about to join the 1000 club. Again, political leaders checking in.


We are definitely going to have some of our own Mayors, City Councilmen, Governors, Congressmen etc. in the coming days/weeks.
Are the leaders of the countries with high numbers of infections catching hell and being blamed like Trump?
Tanya 93
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Bruce Almighty said:

Hey Tanya, Mizzou has its first case.
I heard that last night at the festival. More people started sanitizing their hands/

Go see the documentary on Pepe the Frog.

Fascinating
AgFan2015
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Quote:

NYC orders mandatory coronavirus testing for public workers

New York City will order some public workers to get tested for coronavirus, and force them into quarantine if they refuse, according to an order issued Thursday by the city health department.

And for the first time, the city is now asking all New Yorkers who have returned from at-risk countries China, Iran, Italy, South Korea and Japan to quarantine themselves for 14 days.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said mandatory testing for public workers first responders, teachers and health care workers will be triggered in cases where people have symptoms of the virus, have traveled to high-risk countries or had contact with others who are infected.

Employees who refuse to be tested will be ordered into mandatory quarantine and face discipline at work, de Blasio said.

For the public, isolation remains voluntary, but the city is now asking a much broader population of people to stay home as the virus spreads.


https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2020/03/05/nyc-orders-mandatory-coronavirus-testing-for-public-workers-1265590

All in the name of "public health".

Most fear what will happen when the public panics, the greater concern should be what will happen when federal, state and local governments panic.
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