to slow the spread you need testing, hygiene, and government mitigation

and older people need to shelter in place

queso1 said:

---

But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.

---

I honestly don't think we know at this moment, queso. I've found an obscure way via traffic monitoring to get a general idea of how things are going.

Wuhan Traffic - this is a good sign. The 10% of normal is a marked improvement.

You can scroll down and see the seven day history. In the search bar you can find most of their large cities. If you note, almost all cities are not busy at all outside of going to and from work.

ETA: The official party line from China is all is returning to normal. The amount of credibility that message confers, I will leave to you.

The math indicates that is a vain hope if spread is exponential.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8082517/Microsoft-Facebook-embrace-home-working-amid-coronavirus-crisis.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Quote:

---

Apple tells ALL its 12,000 staff at the Cupertino HQ to work from home with immediate effect - following Facebook and Microsoft edicts to its Bay Area staff

• Apple issued a memo to its employees based at the Santa Clara Valley headquarters Apple Park advising them to remain home Friday
• Offices will remain open but the 12,000 Cupertino staff were told to stay away
• Facebook has also told all San Fran workers to stay at home and cancel business trips on Friday
• Facebook already closed its Seattle office when a contractor there was infected
• The closure sees about 17,000 Facebook employees working from home
• Microsoft has also told San Francisco Bay and Seattle workers to stay at home
• The Seattle bases houses 54,000 employees, a third of its global staff
• The company is paying hourly workers even if they can't come into work
• An estimated 83,000 workers are affected between the three companies

---

Aggie Pharmer said:

---

FWIW, my wife has a friend that works for a large university hospital system in Germany. From what I've been privy to, they have pretty much given up hope on controlling spread. They think it's going to infect 80-90% of the population. They are hoping that the majority of cases will be mild and that the spread is slow enough so that the serious cases won't overwhelm the number of ICU beds.

---

This is what I'm afraid of. I think you have to hope you can slow the spread a bit so as to prevent hospitals from being overrun.

tysker said:

---

KidDoc said:

---

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.

---

Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.

Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.

---

Because it will be spread by kids like wildfire because they are germy little beings. They do not cover coughs. They do not wash hands. They chew on their fingers and pick their noses all day long.

The purpose of shutting schools is to stop the little germ machines from spreading it to everyone in a 10 foot radius all day long.

---

But its the same with adults in their office and cubicle and their car. Its just they (supposedly) wash their hands and even that's is mostly due to social pressure. I would argue, at any given time a schools cafeteria isn't that much more germy than your office's break-room.

---

Great question. I couldn't find a good apples-to-apples but here is some ok data:

https://ohsonline.com/articles/2010/12/21/top-5-germiest-places-in-the-workplace.aspx

https://www.nsf.org/consumer-resources/studies-surveys-infographics/germ-studies/germiest-places-schools

For office:

• Telephones. In many workplaces, telephones are still used by multiple employees. Office phones can harbor more than 25,000 germs per square inch. Users should be instructed to wipe off handsets and keypads with sanitizing wipes after using them and periodically throughout the day.
• Elevator buttons. Scores, if not hundreds, of people use elevators every day, many times before they have a chance to get to their workstations or wash their hands. Avoid direct contact with elevator surfaces if you can. Consider using your elbow rather than your hand to push the buttons. (Want to guess the number one place in the elevator for harboring bacteria and germs? It's the "one," or first floor, button.)
• Water fountains. Public drinking fountains can harbor as many as 2.7 million bacteria per square inch on the spigot. As an alternative, bring water from home in a sports bottle or buy bottled water during the worst flu outbreaks.
• Keyboards. As with telephones, PC keyboards are often used by more than one person, making their use a common way to transfer germs. In fact, keyboards can actually have more than 200 times as many bacteria as a toilet seat.
• Bathrooms. Tagged as the "epicenter of cross-contamination" and the "bio-hazardous waste transfer station," facility bathrooms are one of the germiest places of all. E. coli and other fecal toxins are often found on nearly every surface; folks who wash their hands before leaving are nonetheless presented with germy door handles. As a solution, use paper towels to turn faucets off

Schools:
Sample Location
(Colony Forming Units / in sq)Water Fountain Spigot (classroom)
2,700,000 CFU/in sq
Water Fountain Spigot (cafeteria)
62,000 CFU/in sq
Plastic Reusable Cafeteria Tray
33,800 CFU/in sq
Faucet (cold water handle)
32,000 CFU/in sq
Faucet (hot water handle)
18,000 CFU/in sq
Cafeteria Plate
15,800 CFU/in sq
Keyboard (classroom)
3,300 CFU/in sq
Toilet Seat
3,200 CFU/in sq
Student's Hand
1,200 CFU/in sq

Water fountain with 2.7 mil CFU/in sq seems to be a winner in both places.

PJYoung said:

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AgsMyDude said:

---

These charts look interesting. Where are you getting them?

---

https://covid2019.app/

---

Thanks

Worse than an STD spread during spring break in Padre

Elbow?

Tbs2003 said:

---

Aggie Pharmer said:

---

FWIW, my wife has a friend that works for a large university hospital system in Germany. From what I've been privy to, they have pretty much given up hope on controlling spread. They think it's going to infect 80-90% of the population. They are hoping that the majority of cases will be mild and that the spread is slow enough so that the serious cases won't overwhelm the number of ICU beds.

---

This is what I'm afraid of. I think you have to hope you can slow the spread a bit so as to prevent hospitals from being overrun.

---

Would be nice to think that our national medical strategy isn't based entirely on hope and change anymore.

ttu_85 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

---

Aside from the disastrous economic impact of the "pandemonium," someone convince me this virus is bad for humanity.

It's highly contagious, but only deadly to the oldest and weakest/sickest humans on the planet, who actually cost us the most in medical resources to keep alive anyway.

My inner-Darwinist thinks this thing is a net positive.

Prove me wrong!!

---

Spoken like a true believer of the Third Reich

---

Hahaha. Darwin was a Nazi?

This is the same belief system Cliff Klavin had about alcohol killing the weakest brain cells. Unlike Cliff, the concept of survival of the fittest has been around about as long as life itself.

Mr.Infectious said:

---

Worse than an STD spread during spring break in Padre

---

And not nearly as fun

If a large portion of the population will be infected, it is fortunate that most working age adults will be relatively mildly affected and for the most part, will be available on a rolling basis to continue working. That is an optimistic silver lining on a dark cloud, however.

It is inevitable if this becomes fairly widespread that hospitals will be overwhelmed until this plays out locally or regionally. We are "right sized" for average demand plus some surge capacity. We're in no way sized for a vast increase in ICU cases.

queso1 said:

---

But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.

---

It is leveling off over there I believe. Mass quarantine efforts, everyone wearing masks, regular temperature checks, they are making everyone register where they go. You know... alot of authoritarian measures that will never happen here.

CrazyRichAggie said:

---

inoffensive username said:

---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I didn't see this posted before, but it's a great resource updated in real time.

---

Have you found a site you can export the data to an excel file?

---

I have not. I just randomly cane across the other one and hadn't seen it posted

FbgTxAg said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

Aside from the disastrous economic impact of the "pandemonium," someone convince me this virus is bad for humanity.

It's highly contagious, but only deadly to the oldest and weakest/sickest humans on the planet, who actually cost us the most in medical resources to keep alive anyway.

My inner-Darwinist thinks this thing is a net positive.

Prove me wrong!!

---

Spoken like a true believer of the Third Reich

---

Hahaha. Darwin was a Nazi?

This is the same belief system Cliff Klavin had about alcohol killing the weakest brain cells. Unlike Cliff, the concept of survival of the fittest has been around about as long as life itself.

---

A big difference between killing brain cells and killing the weakest sickest HUMAN beings and calling it a 'net positive'. Back peddle as fast as you can. Congrats on the worst post on this thread.

Yes, I'm not pooh poohing the economic effects this is causing. But the health concerns are mostly media over-hype fueling fearful over-reaction. That over-reaction can can be readily found by some of the posts in this thread. My comment that the media will move on, does not mean I don't think the profound economic effects this is causing will be over, even after subsequent shiny objects come and go for the media. But I believe the health effects will be over long before the economic effects of the over-reaction.

CrazyRichAggie said:

---

inoffensive username said:

---

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I didn't see this posted before, but it's a great resource updated in real time.

---

Have you found a site you can export the data to an excel file?

---

I have not.

sawthemoffxx said:

---

queso1 said:

---

But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.

---

It is leveling off over there I believe. Mass quarantine efforts, everyone wearing masks, regular temperature checks, they are making everyone register where they go. You know... alot of authoritarian measures that will never happen here.

---

I understand. But, they also live completely different than us. There is very little social demand for personal space. You have thousands of people possibly living in one building. They are cramped together. Most people over there smoke and I would imagine the hygiene is not like ours.

I wonder if anyone will bother to account for indirect health effects related to strained healthcare system as part of the total cost. I suspect that will get missed in favor of a casualty rate from infection that isn't in the 100s of millions, but it might prove to be a more interesting story.

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

Aside from the disastrous economic impact of the "pandemonium," someone convince me this virus is bad for humanity.

It's highly contagious, but only deadly to the oldest and weakest/sickest humans on the planet, who actually cost us the most in medical resources to keep alive anyway.

My inner-Darwinist thinks this thing is a net positive.

Prove me wrong!!

---

Spoken like a true believer of the Third Reich

---

Hahaha. Darwin was a Nazi?

This is the same belief system Cliff Klavin had about alcohol killing the weakest brain cells. Unlike Cliff, the concept of survival of the fittest has been around about as long as life itself.

---

A big difference between killing brain cells and killing the weakest sickest HUMAN beings and calling it a 'net positive'. Back peddle as fast as you can. Congrats on the worst post on this thread.

---

Nah. There was someone that was openly jovial about the idea of this thinning the heard and giving them a chance at their SS check eventually.

queso1 said:

---

sawthemoffxx said:

---

queso1 said:

---

But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.

---

It is leveling off over there I believe. Mass quarantine efforts, everyone wearing masks, regular temperature checks, they are making everyone register where they go. You know... alot of authoritarian measures that will never happen here.

---

I understand. But, they also live completely different than us. There is very little social demand for personal space. You have thousands of people possibly living in one building. They are cramped together. Most people over there smoke and I would imagine the hygiene is not like ours.

---

Well yea if you are referring Texas to China. New York, Chicago, Boston aren't all that different regarding population density and those are places where it's blowing up.

We may finally be thankfully our public transportation system here is crap.

sawthemoffxx said:

---

queso1 said:

---

sawthemoffxx said:

---

queso1 said:

---

But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.

---

It is leveling off over there I believe. Mass quarantine efforts, everyone wearing masks, regular temperature checks, they are making everyone register where they go. You know... alot of authoritarian measures that will never happen here.

---

I understand. But, they also live completely different than us. There is very little social demand for personal space. You have thousands of people possibly living in one building. They are cramped together. Most people over there smoke and I would imagine the hygiene is not like ours.

---

Well yea if you are referring Texas to China. New York, Chicago, Boston aren't all that different regarding population density and those are places where it's blowing up.

We may finally be thankfully our public transportation system here is crap.

---

It's the hygiene practices that make the China metros light and day difference to that of the US.

IrishTxAggie said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

Aside from the disastrous economic impact of the "pandemonium," someone convince me this virus is bad for humanity.

It's highly contagious, but only deadly to the oldest and weakest/sickest humans on the planet, who actually cost us the most in medical resources to keep alive anyway.

My inner-Darwinist thinks this thing is a net positive.

Prove me wrong!!

---

Spoken like a true believer of the Third Reich

---

Hahaha. Darwin was a Nazi?

This is the same belief system Cliff Klavin had about alcohol killing the weakest brain cells. Unlike Cliff, the concept of survival of the fittest has been around about as long as life itself.

---

A big difference between killing brain cells and killing the weakest sickest HUMAN beings and calling it a 'net positive'. Back peddle as fast as you can. Congrats on the worst post on this thread.

---

Nah. There was someone that was openly jovial about the idea of this thinning the heard and giving them a chance at their SS check eventually.

---

Wow, you are right. It's worse. Gotta have that gov check even if others have to die. What the F* is wrong with people?

IrishTxAggie said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

FbgTxAg said:

---

Aside from the disastrous economic impact of the "pandemonium," someone convince me this virus is bad for humanity.

It's highly contagious, but only deadly to the oldest and weakest/sickest humans on the planet, who actually cost us the most in medical resources to keep alive anyway.

My inner-Darwinist thinks this thing is a net positive.

Prove me wrong!!

---

Spoken like a true believer of the Third Reich

---

Hahaha. Darwin was a Nazi?

This is the same belief system Cliff Klavin had about alcohol killing the weakest brain cells. Unlike Cliff, the concept of survival of the fittest has been around about as long as life itself.

---

A big difference between killing brain cells and killing the weakest sickest HUMAN beings and calling it a 'net positive'. Back peddle as fast as you can. Congrats on the worst post on this thread.

---

Nah. There was someone that was openly jovial about the idea of this thinning the heard and giving them a chance at their SS check eventually.

---

Duplicate.

Are they about to cancel sxsw in austin?

Press conference in 30 minutes

who?mikejones said:

---

Are they about to cancel sxsw in austin?

Press conference in 30 minutes

---

Where did you see that?

who?mikejones said:

---

Are they about to cancel sxsw in austin?

Press conference in 30 minutes

---

I'd get a chuckle out if this. Nothing like a bunch of left wing pat on the backers having to change their propaganda plans

Mr.Infectious said:

---

Worse than an STD spread during spring break in Padre

---

I never got one there!..This year though...Whew.

Winter time is the best. I am a 30 year old Snow Bird. lol

who?mikejones said:

---

Are they about to cancel sxsw in austin?

Press conference in 30 minutes

---

Bet!

who?mikejones said:

---

Are they about to cancel sxsw in austin?

Press conference in 30 minutes

---

Since almost everyone has dropped out, there is almost no point in doing it.

lunchbox said:

---

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8082517/Microsoft-Facebook-embrace-home-working-amid-coronavirus-crisis.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Quote:

---

Apple tells ALL its 12,000 staff at the Cupertino HQ to work from home with immediate effect - following Facebook and Microsoft edicts to its Bay Area staff

• Apple issued a memo to its employees based at the Santa Clara Valley headquarters Apple Park advising them to remain home Friday
• Offices will remain open but the 12,000 Cupertino staff were told to stay away
• Facebook has also told all San Fran workers to stay at home and cancel business trips on Friday
• Facebook already closed its Seattle office when a contractor there was infected
• The closure sees about 17,000 Facebook employees working from home
• Microsoft has also told San Francisco Bay and Seattle workers to stay at home
• The Seattle bases houses 54,000 employees, a third of its global staff
• The company is paying hourly workers even if they can't come into work
• An estimated 83,000 workers are affected between the three companies

---

---

With the amount of international travel these companies would have....they have confirmed cases and know it.

Just like Amazon in Washington. As soon as they know, they close up shop.

Tbs2003 said:

---

tysker said:

---

Tbs2003 said:

---

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.

---

Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.

Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.

---

It really doesn't matter that the symptoms are mild among younger people. The problem we're trying to avoid is widespread infection, which will happen when it spreads throughout classrooms to parents and beyond. At that point, the elderly will be at risk whenever they go out to get groceries / meds / etc. If we can't stop the spread of the disease (which will likely require dramatic efforts given the apparent transmissibility of the virus), we're going to end up losing a good chunk of our senior population.

---

Yes but do classrooms have a different transmission rate than your workplace, church, the grocery store, gyms, etc that are not closing? Closing schools and have many of those kids sent to an office with their parents or to be babysat by grandparents doesnt seem like a significantly 'better' solution especially if you're worried about the elderly

---

You don't have kids, do you? As noted above, kids are germ bombs. If one kid comes down with this, and goes to school before symptoms hit, I'd bet that a high percentage of kids in the school are going to end up with it.

I think there's probably a spectrum of risky places. Anywhere that you're standing / sitting right next to people for long periods of time (church, concerts, sporting events) is probably not the safest place to be. The more spread out people are, the less the risk. It's just common sense based on how they think this bug is spread.

---

Yep, funny story. About 3 years ago I started running a low grade fever and just felt like poop. No other symptoms. Went to the Dr and they let it ride for a couple of weeks. Still running a low grade fever and feeling crappy about a month in I went to another Dr. They ran a panel of blood tests for all sorts of cancers, all negative. Another month of feeling like this I went to another Dr, and talked to his PA before he came in. She said, it sounds like you have mono. Run the test and sure enough I had mono at 45. By the way, mono sucks when you are old and I still don't feel like I did before it.

Told the wife and she was skeptical of my fidelity. Turns out my little crotch fruit was a carrier that was not symptomatic.

Other weird crap is that one of our dogs was giving my son strep because she was a carrier. Still skeptical, but was explained by the pediatrician for strep about every 2 months. The dog is no longer with us thanks to dad.

TLDR, old guy gets mono, spends over $1k on tests for cancer and learns his 8 year old gave it to him.