foleyt said:
Death rate is somewhere from 10-30x higher than flu among the older segments of population
Hospitalization rate is also much higher than flu even for younger populations
No immunity
Severely limited testing
Longer incubation period and can be spread asymptomatically
It means that this isn't just a "shiny object" the media has grasped at to fill their news cycle. The global economy isn't just going to snap back because the Times stops reporting on it.lead said:What does this mean?CDub06 said:
We're gonna be dealing with the effects of this for a while.
Because it will be spread by kids like wildfire because they are germy little beings. They do not cover coughs. They do not wash hands. They chew on their fingers and pick their noses all day long.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
But our numbers aren't an indication for anything. They're going to grow massively because we are just now testing more widely. You can't extrapolate anything with those useless "confirmed" numbers.the last of the bohemians said:
So Spain is spreading at 1.35 rate to total cases per day.
Applied to US we will be at around 1500 cases next week. At the China rate we will be at around 4000 cases. Will try to do some other baselines...
Yes but do classrooms have a different transmission rate than your workplace, church, the grocery store, gyms, etc that are not closing? Closing schools and have many of those kids sent to an office with their parents or to be babysat by grandparents doesnt seem like a significantly 'better' solution especially if you're worried about the elderlyTbs2003 said:It really doesn't matter that the symptoms are mild among younger people. The problem we're trying to avoid is widespread infection, which will happen when it spreads throughout classrooms to parents and beyond. At that point, the elderly will be at risk whenever they go out to get groceries / meds / etc. If we can't stop the spread of the disease (which will likely require dramatic efforts given the apparent transmissibility of the virus), we're going to end up losing a good chunk of our senior population.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
There is a big difference in covering it, and making the covering seem like a 25 mile wide asteroid is about to hit the planet. The media loves to sensationalize anything it can, and the worse it sounds, the more they like it.CDub06 said:It means that this isn't just a "shiny object" the media has grasped at to fill their news cycle. The global economy isn't just going to snap back because the Times stops reporting on it.lead said:What does this mean?CDub06 said:
We're gonna be dealing with the effects of this for a while.
So many classroom are communal when it comes to crayons, markers, and colored pencils.tysker said:Yes but do classrooms have a different transmission rate than your workplace, church, the grocery store, gyms, etc that are not closing? Closing schools and have many of those kids sent to an office with their parents or to be babysat by grandparents doesnt seem like a significantly 'better' solution especially if you're worried about the elderlyTbs2003 said:It really doesn't matter that the symptoms are mild among younger people. The problem we're trying to avoid is widespread infection, which will happen when it spreads throughout classrooms to parents and beyond. At that point, the elderly will be at risk whenever they go out to get groceries / meds / etc. If we can't stop the spread of the disease (which will likely require dramatic efforts given the apparent transmissibility of the virus), we're going to end up losing a good chunk of our senior population.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
But its the same with adults in their office and cubicle and their car. Its just they (supposedly) wash their hands and even that's is mostly due to social pressure. I would argue, at any given time a schools cafeteria isn't that much more germy than your office's break-room.KidDoc said:Because it will be spread by kids like wildfire because they are germy little beings. They do not cover coughs. They do not wash hands. They chew on their fingers and pick their noses all day long.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
The purpose of shutting schools is to stop the little germ machines from spreading it to everyone in a 10 foot radius all day long.
the last of the bohemians said:
So Spain is spreading at 1.35 rate to total cases per day.
Applied to US we will be at around 1500 cases next week. At the China rate we will be at around 4000 cases. Will try to do some other baselines...
Some studies of past infection control have also suggested that keeping parent(s) home to care for the kids (as opposed to going to work) also helps reduce the spread between adults.KidDoc said:Because it will be spread by kids like wildfire because they are germy little beings. They do not cover coughs. They do not wash hands. They chew on their fingers and pick their noses all day long.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
The purpose of shutting schools is to stop the little germ machines from spreading it to everyone in a 10 foot radius all day long.
You don't have kids, do you? As noted above, kids are germ bombs. If one kid comes down with this, and goes to school before symptoms hit, I'd bet that a high percentage of kids in the school are going to end up with it.tysker said:Yes but do classrooms have a different transmission rate than your workplace, church, the grocery store, gyms, etc that are not closing? Closing schools and have many of those kids sent to an office with their parents or to be babysat by grandparents doesnt seem like a significantly 'better' solution especially if you're worried about the elderlyTbs2003 said:It really doesn't matter that the symptoms are mild among younger people. The problem we're trying to avoid is widespread infection, which will happen when it spreads throughout classrooms to parents and beyond. At that point, the elderly will be at risk whenever they go out to get groceries / meds / etc. If we can't stop the spread of the disease (which will likely require dramatic efforts given the apparent transmissibility of the virus), we're going to end up losing a good chunk of our senior population.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
Free food, credits toward future cruises for the trouble, extra time off from work. It's not bad if you don't need to be anywhere soon.tysker said:I find cruising to be fine for the most part but being stuck on a ship involuntarily for an extra two weeks sounds like hell. Its not you have access to the pool, movies at night and soft serve machines. And then you get stuck with the crap pizza and chicken tenders. Ugh.TurkeyBaconLeg said:
I would say that anyone that gets on a cruise ship right now is crazy. Unless you want to potentially have to live on it for the next month or so...
It only takes one person to get sick (and they might not even have coronavirus!) and then the entire ship is banished from docking at any port...
queso1 said:
Does anybody know what's going on in China? Is it pretty much over there? Or is it still spreading?
Be specific please.Ag In Ok said:ttu_85 said:
F* China. They have been dealing with this for 75 days or so. Have they told the truth regarding anything? Its all about saving face while the global eco crashes. MERS and SAR should have provided a frame work to see what first cousin Covid-19 is all about. Nope still a bunch of conflicting data of mutations, AIDS like characteristics the wreck the lungs and all the while the magnificent CCP has the rate of new infection going way down while the rest of the world skyrockets--- what BS. That doesn't pass a basic smell test.
China should have been totally transparent in early January. F* them
If China told the truth now, there would be mayhem. Think what is going on now in SF by a factor of 10.
queso1 said:
But we're not seeing a decrease over there? I've heard people were returning to work.
This. I put my house on the market 2 days ago. It better sell within 30 days.P.U.T.U said:
Right now it is the economic side I am worried about. Several concerts, and expos are cancelled or are in high risk of being cancelled. Add lack of vacations, flights, and cruises and you have several industries hit hard.
The other is the rate of the ICU rate, especially those who require respirators. If this becomes a true pandemic it is good to be one of the first or last to get it. If the reports are true and it can cause permanent organ damage that is another fear with overloaded hospitals.
I must give credit to my son for that. He's a DM and understands the significance. He has already prepared his group for "Facetime rules" if school is suspended.cone said:
props for your D&D analogies
CrazyRichAggie said:Pj's chart is misleading. That's not the rate the virus is spreading. It's the number of new cases discovered. Those "new" cases could be people that have had the virus for several days or a couple of weeks.the last of the bohemians said:
So Spain is spreading at 1.35 rate to total cases per day.
Applied to US we will be at around 1500 cases next week. At the China rate we will be at around 4000 cases. Will try to do some other baselines...
Quote:
It's the current fad of the fake news and it will be gone in no time, when someone flashes the next shiny object in front of their face.
Nope three kids- two grade schoolers and preschooler who attends the preschool my wife works at acouple days a week. So I'm well versed in how germy and gross kids are. But I'm also aware how shutting schools stresses other parts of the community and families. I'm simplay wondering are the negative side effects of shutting schools (especially HSs and colleges where kids arent so germy) worth it compared to keeping them open and running but maybe with higher hygiene awareness for all.Tbs2003 said:You don't have kids, do you? As noted above, kids are germ bombs. If one kid comes down with this, and goes to school before symptoms hit, I'd bet that a high percentage of kids in the school are going to end up with it.tysker said:Yes but do classrooms have a different transmission rate than your workplace, church, the grocery store, gyms, etc that are not closing? Closing schools and have many of those kids sent to an office with their parents or to be babysat by grandparents doesnt seem like a significantly 'better' solution especially if you're worried about the elderlyTbs2003 said:It really doesn't matter that the symptoms are mild among younger people. The problem we're trying to avoid is widespread infection, which will happen when it spreads throughout classrooms to parents and beyond. At that point, the elderly will be at risk whenever they go out to get groceries / meds / etc. If we can't stop the spread of the disease (which will likely require dramatic efforts given the apparent transmissibility of the virus), we're going to end up losing a good chunk of our senior population.tysker said:Considering that it seems to be less harmful to children, does it really make sense to close schools for extended periods? Maybe close for few days for a deep cleaning and make arrangements for workers over say 50 yrs old. Or is the logic that young people cant be trusted to not touch one another and generally be hygienic? Closing schools already puts pressure on other sectors and services and may even put those others areas at risk.Quote:
From the available data this seems to be harmless in kids. I'm sure plenty of Chinese kids with asthma caught it but it still seems like it is a bunch of nothing in the young.
Basically I'm wondering are schools, especially colleges where people are supposedly smart and informed, don't seem like they're that much prone to spreading this disease than church services, the gym or the grocery store.
I think there's probably a spectrum of risky places. Anywhere that you're standing / sitting right next to people for long periods of time (church, concerts, sporting events) is probably not the safest place to be. The more spread out people are, the less the risk. It's just common sense based on how they think this bug is spread.
