aginlakeway said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

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What are your qualifications for making such statements of fact? Or are they just for opinions?

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About the ports? Those came directly from the port of Los Angeles on an interview with CNBC.

They are dropping like flies over there.

wessimo said:

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the last of the bohemians said:

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Thanks OldArmy.
If you look at the S Korea chart, the number of new cases peaked last week, about month and half after the contagion started.
This is a developed country model that should apply to US unless we completely botch things.

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So far the US response is MUCH worse than South Korea.

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Not surprising.
A bigger country, bigger bureaucracy, it's like pushing a freight train. Hopefully once they get rolling things work quickly and on a large scale.

Given that, of all the countries you want to be in in times of a pandemic, the US is #1

I meant about all of your other doom and gloom posts.

You're posting your opinions as facts. I'm wondering what your qualifications are for doing that.

Now quoting CNBC...definitely more reliable than people who deal with it on a daily basis (shipping)

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Now quoting CNBC...definitely more reliable than people who deal with it on a daily basis (shipping)

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Quote:

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The Port of Los Angeles is the busiest container port in North America.... Port of LA Executive Director Gene Seroka says...cnb.cx/3c71cvP

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Now quoting CNBC...definitely more reliable than people who deal with it on a daily basis (shipping)

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The interviewer is an idiot, but the guy they are interviewing is an executive of the port. Are you saying he is lying?

The tweet was from CNBC, so anything that comes from it has no meaning to me...regardless of who says it

Are they really going to put someone on that might state something good and then not be able to blame Trump? Maybe, but I doubt. This is only my opinion.

there's been a lot of good news in the last two weeks. i was much more panicked a week ago.

it's might not be as infectious as previously thought. it might not be as airborne or maybe not at all. there's hope that discipline and social distancing would be effective. China seems to be getting back to work, which is the first thing required to stave off a collapse.

it's still bad and will kill you, but the pressure point feels different now. it's more malaise than panic to me right now. this will be a muddle.

i would even guess that the overall US death toll remains much lower than we expect, but at TREMENDOUS economic cost.

which of course will lead to people *****ing about how this was a nothing burger and wasn't worth it.

Why school closures are a good idea to stop outbreaks.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Now quoting CNBC...definitely more reliable than people who deal with it on a daily basis (shipping)

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The interviewer is an idiot, but the guy they are interviewing is an executive of the port. Are you saying he is lying?

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This is what you wrote earlier ...

"This is much bigger than 2008 or 9/11. It's going to be the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Depending on the severity around the world, it could exceed even that (such as every country going Iran, Italy, and China).

It's not apocalyptic, but it's going to absolutely crash the global economy at the absolute best case scenario. At the worst case scenario, we're looking down the barrel of another Great Depression."


I think it's very fair to ask how you know this is what will happen.

How many kids have gotten sick with this?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

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What are your qualifications for making such statements of fact? Or are they just for opinions?

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About the ports? Those came directly from the port of Los Angeles on an interview with CNBC.

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In December, Port of Los Angeles was reporting a YOY decline of 15%...down the street, long beach port reported 10% YOY declines.

The trade war and a creeping recession in Europe are definitely a factor here.

aginlakeway said:

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I meant about all of your other doom and gloom posts.

You're posting your opinions as facts. I'm wondering what your qualifications are for doing that.

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I'm not an economist. I just don't see any good news here. People can post anything on a forum so anecdotes don't mean much to me unless they have video or audio or some other evidence to back up the claim. I would rather actual data or first hand reports from people involved.

I don't understand why so many people are just blowing this off like it's nothing.

it's a classic knee jerk.

And thanks in advance for telling me so I can pull all my money from the stock market and savings and trade for silver and gold. That way I will have something to barter.

Quote:

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Hopefully once they get rolling things work quickly and on a large scale.

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that's how i see it, too

i think we're going to end up significantly overtesting for this thing by May

in the mean time, we're going to get a "shut down" city or two and lots and lots and lots of school closures

Whiskey Jacket said:

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How many kids have gotten sick with this?

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From the statistics available, it seems to be a small percentage.

Now if "kids" means anyone under 18, then there are more documented cases for teenagers. It seems to either ignore little kids, or they show little to no symptoms.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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How many kids have gotten sick with this?

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Not many which is a blessing. But I think the point is they could become a major vector for transmission to older adults due to asymptomatic or mild symptom COVID-19 infection.

It is clear to me that many, many people need to turn off the internet, turn off cable news and go outside.

Not blowing it off, but not going to stop living my life. I will take necessary precautions, but I will not deviate my life in such a way, that I am not able to enjoy the life my wife and I have built.

now that i mention malaise, to be honest, this does all remind me of an Iran hostage crisis scenario

where it's the thing you talk about every day and it's a bummer every day and there's an end in sight but not for a long while and it saps confidence and dogs the incumbent's ability to project confidence

if that's a stretch, so be it, but that's what i see

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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aginlakeway said:

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I meant about all of your other doom and gloom posts.

You're posting your opinions as facts. I'm wondering what your qualifications are for doing that.

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I'm not an economist. I just don't see any good news here. People can post anything on a forum so anecdotes don't mean much to me unless they have video or audio or some other evidence to back up the claim. I would rather actual data or first hand reports from people involved.

I don't understand why so many people are just blowing this off like it's nothing.

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And all you have is an old CNBC interview (which, BTW I thought was "fake news" because it's the "lamestream media"...guess not when it fits your agenda) and your gut feeling telling you this is the end of the world. You're doing the exact same thing you criticize.

I Have Spoken said:

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It is clear to me that many, many people need to turn off the internet, turn off cable news and go outside.

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70 degrees and sunny in Houston. Taking the dog on a nice long walk. I'll have a Corona when I get home while a cook a steak.

The media has weaponized this thing

Sims said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

---

What are your qualifications for making such statements of fact? Or are they just for opinions?

---

About the ports? Those came directly from the port of Los Angeles on an interview with CNBC.

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In December, Port of Los Angeles was reporting a YOY decline of 15%...down the street, long beach port reported 10% YOY declines.

The trade war and a creeping recession in Europe are definitely a factor here.

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Absolutely. Also the fact that we're becoming more isolationist against.

This...

cone said:

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Quote:

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Hopefully once they get rolling things work quickly and on a large scale.

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that's how i see it, too

i think we're going to end up significantly overtesting for this thing by May

in the mean time, we're going to get a "shut down" city or two and lots and lots and lots of school closures

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I'd rather over-prepare and overtest than the opposite like what Iran did.

do you think i'm blowing this off as nothing?

a global recession?

Gartner canceled a conference that was scheduled to be held in London next week.

Guys at our office in Tel Aviv have told us that people who travel to (or back to) Israel from certain countries in Europe are being told to self-quarantine for 14 days. Germany, for example, is now on the Israeli health administration's list of high risk countries. There is talk Israel will add the US to that list of high risk countries...

Sims said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

---

When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

---

What are your qualifications for making such statements of fact? Or are they just for opinions?

---

About the ports? Those came directly from the port of Los Angeles on an interview with CNBC.

---

In December, Port of Los Angeles was reporting a YOY decline of 15%...down the street, long beach port reported 10% YOY declines.

The trade war and a creeping recession in Europe are definitely a factor here.

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October 2019 down 19%

November 2019 down 12%

December 2019 down 15%

January 2020 down 5%

aginlakeway said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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aginlakeway said:

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I meant about all of your other doom and gloom posts.

You're posting your opinions as facts. I'm wondering what your qualifications are for doing that.

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I'm not an economist. I just don't see any good news here. People can post anything on a forum so anecdotes don't mean much to me unless they have video or audio or some other evidence to back up the claim. I would rather actual data or first hand reports from people involved.

I don't understand why so many people are just blowing this off like it's nothing.

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Irony ...

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I'm not posting anecdotes though, just an opinion. I never stated anything was a fact. I'm a cynical person in a general and don't tend to believe much of what I hear from the government, even one I voted for because they often react like a sloth to anything with rapidly changing conditions.

You're right though, my post was an overreaction. I'll make sure to refrain from such moving forward.