eric76 said:

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jagvocate said:

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Zemira said:

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True, but you can't say it only infects Asians that is just an outright lie.

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Where did I or anyone on here make that claim?

I guess the only people immune to this virus are Strawmen.

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Also, snow men.

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Tinman will be ok right?

Remdesivir arm under an adaptive NIH trial started last week.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705

for sure, i completely agree with what people want to hear

scottimus said:

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I don't know how to post a gif, but here it is...
https://giphy.com/gifs/reactionseditor-reaction-3o7btNRTJ700Vzmn5e

if the rumors are true, China and Taiwan reverse engineered and started mass production

they would do that for a reason, so i'm pretty hopeful. i'm also hoping that the feds are working to have production scaled and ready for a positive finding.

KorbinDallas said:

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scottimus said:

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I don't k ow how to post a gif, but here it is...
https://giphy.com/gifs/reactionseditor-reaction-3o7btNRTJ700Vzmn5e

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Here you go..

cone said:

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this thing is just an economic bomb

it's like a cross between 9/11 and 2008. all the paranoia and demand subsidence of 9/11 and the agonizingly slow required unwind of 2008. it's not as catastrophic as either, but it combines some of the worst economic aspects of both.

i just struggle to understand what would constitute an all clear

will it require multiple waves with decreasing epidemic peaks? will it require a vaccine? eventually enough people get the mild case such that we have sufficient herd immunity and the outbreaks aren't as far reaching and severe. but we don't want that to happen too quickly because it'll overwhelm things and result in unacceptable deaths over a short period of time (making the economic chaos even worse).

this is a real deal global crisis

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It's grinding international shipping and travel to a halt. How can you ship anything when people can't work and when it lives on surfaces for days? How can people travel when just stepping foot in an area means a new vector for infection?

This is much bigger than 2008 or 9/11. It's going to be the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Depending on the severity around the world, it could exceed even that (such as every country going Iran, Italy, and China).

It's not apocalyptic, but it's going to absolutely crash the global economy at the absolute best case scenario. At the worst case scenario, we're looking down the barrel of another Great Depression.

I'm not seeing any good long term implications here with this thing.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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Remdesivir arm under an adaptive NIH trial started last week.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705

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Quote:

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Estimated Primary Completion Date :
April 1, 2023
Estimated Study Completion Date :
April 1, 2023

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I think we'll all be dead or recovered by then.

Are you saying the United States of America will have to become more self-sufficient?

What a concept!

VaultingChemist said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Remdesivir arm under an adaptive NIH trial started last week.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705

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Quote:

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Estimated Primary Completion Date :
April 1, 2023
Estimated Study Completion Date :
April 1, 2023

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I think we'll all be dead or recovered by then.

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There's always cryogenics. Ride it out in liquid nitrogen.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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cone said:

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this thing is just an economic bomb

it's like a cross between 9/11 and 2008. all the paranoia and demand subsidence of 9/11 and the agonizingly slow required unwind of 2008. it's not as catastrophic as either, but it combines some of the worst economic aspects of both.

i just struggle to understand what would constitute an all clear

will it require multiple waves with decreasing epidemic peaks? will it require a vaccine? eventually enough people get the mild case such that we have sufficient herd immunity and the outbreaks aren't as far reaching and severe. but we don't want that to happen too quickly because it'll overwhelm things and result in unacceptable deaths over a short period of time (making the economic chaos even worse).

this is a real deal global crisis

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It's grinding international shipping and travel to a halt. How can you ship anything when people can't work and when it lives on surfaces for days? How can people travel when just stepping foot in an area means a new vector for infection?

This is much bigger than 2008 or 9/11. It's going to be the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Depending on the severity around the world, it could exceed even that (such as every country going Iran, Italy, and China).

It's not apocalyptic, but it's going to absolutely crash the global economy at the absolute best case scenario. At the worst case scenario, we're looking down the barrel of another Great Depression.

I'm not seeing any good long term implications here with this thing.

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Baltic Dry Index

To be fair, international shipping has been precipitously falling since long before Covid19.

scottimus said:

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Are you saying the United States of America will have to become more self-sufficient?

What a concept!

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We should have been doing this anyway, but yes, absolutely.

If there is one thing this virus is doing it's showing that relying upon international shipping is a luxury and that you must have homegrown industry for strategic technologies and materials. It's a national security issue that clearly cannot be relied upon in times of crisis.

Half this thread is people running around screaming that the end is here.

On that note, HP has their main factory in China up and running at almost normal capacity. It is in an area well away from Wuhan.

Study completion means the last day for the last subject. That would be about 57 days after the last subject enrolls starts.

It's an adaptive design, intended to pivot to different treatments as data become available. They will know if there are promising results within a couple of months.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

cisgenderedAggie said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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No. Tamiflu is a monoculture of antibodies for influenza viruses. Basically just floods your body with synthetic antibodies. Won't work on anything other than influenza.

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Tamiflu is not antibodies. It's an inhibitor that blocks an enzyme used in viral production.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oseltamivir

I don't know if coronaviruses use this mechanism

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Why does tamaflu cause some people to have night terrors?

the last of the bohemians said:

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Thanks OldArmy.
If you look at the S Korea chart, the number of new cases peaked last week, about month and half after the contagion started.
This is a developed country model that should apply to US unless we completely botch things.

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Their population density is 5x ours but we are more than 6x larger and way, way more diverse with a strong anti-government flare but the main problem we have compared to them is our lack of testing and quarantine in the not so early stages of the outbreak.

The virus got a massive head start here and that is going to kill a lot of people.

In short, we already botched things.

Don't forget that other antivirals have been used in Korea, China, and Japan, mostly common HIV drugs with apparently good results.

slow down

this doesn't kill the productive, it might sideline them for a week or two, but doesn't kill enough workers for this to become a long-term depression

the real economic contagion is fear and loss of productivity. the fear will subside over time because people will get the disease, recover, and go back to work. and we'll get used to the new normal of social distancing.

the loss of productivity will continue in the same way and last as long as the authorities are closing schools.

effectively we are purposefully slowing down economic production to save the lives of people who have already largely exhausted their economic potential. that doesn't scream depression to me. that says managed recession. it's still going to suck, but not like bread lines suck.

plus, especially in western countries with resources, i assume there will be big push for public displays of disinfection at all sorts of businesses to manage fears and get people to go to stores, restaurants. i don't assume things will remain static through the crisis.

PJYoung said:

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The virus got a massive head start here and that is going to kill a lot of people.

In short, we already botched things.

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So if I have your sentiment correct, what you are saying is:

Quote:

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t's grinding international shipping and travel to a halt. How can you ship anything when people can't work and when it lives on surfaces for days? How can people travel when just stepping foot in an area means a new vector for infection?

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This is BS and yes I'm now calling you out on the same false claim you made earlier.

Factories not in Hubei Province were typically closed an additional 8-10 days post CNY

we need a scorecard ranking of who's rooting for the worst case scenario

cone said:

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we need a scorecard ranking of who's rooting for the worst case scenario

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I'm not rooting for this at all, but I have yet to see any good signs. I mean it seems like the every major org focusing on the disease keeps on ramping up their language to more and more alarming.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

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What are your qualifications for making such statements of fact? Or are they just for opinions?

I wonder with this is going to do to the importing produce from Mexico industry. Can we really live without avocados, tomatoes, and peppers

VaultingChemist said:

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hoosierAG said:

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Again, Italy might as well be China at this point.

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Italy has an "apparent" death rate of about 13% currently. There must be a whole bunch of undiagnosed cases in Italy, or a very deadly strain of the virus is in circulation.

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Or a lot of immigrants (legal and illegal) who are hiding in the shadows that want nothing to do with the Italian government...

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Dude...don't be dramatic

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When we have ports saying they don't see an end in sight to the massive drop off of shipping? Yeah that's a major problem. And we're still in the initial stages of this thing as well

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Do you actually work in shipping or supply chain? Or is this what you believe because you read it on the internet?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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cone said:

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we need a scorecard ranking of who's rooting for the worst case scenario

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I'm not rooting for this at all, but I have yet to see any good signs. I mean it seems like the every major org focusing on the disease keeps on ramping up their language to more and more alarming.

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Ok, where are you getting your production and shipping figures from? Keep in mind, that shipping out of China is essentially non-existent during the CNY anyways.

The chance of a great depression resulting from this is about the same chance as me voting for Trump in November. We'll get out of this okay. The economy will slow, people may lose their jobs as a result, but we will adapt and move forward.

simmer down now. This too shall pass. By summer I suspect.

I'm at a conference in Nashville and staying through the weekend. As I'm not in the typical demographic to be seriously harmed by the virus I'm not that concerned. No kids at home, just my wife and I.

I will take care to avoid my parents (an hour away so easy) and aunt (7 minutes) for a while.

I have to admit that for the first time I'm cognizant about touching my face and try to avoid it, but not paranoid.