VaultingChemist said:

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How many people on this thread have actually been quarantined at some point in their life?

Blue star this post if you have ever been quarantined.

FTR, I spent five days in a hospital bed with no visitors for possibly being infected with typhoid. I was bored out of mind even with a TV.

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Anyone treated with radioactive iodine - example thyroid cancer - is quarantined 3-5 days and everything they touch is discarded through haz mat procedures. Most major hospitals have a few rooms set up for this.

Rapier108 said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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Heard from a family member who is a Physicians assistant in a hospital setting.

Hospital policy is Anyone who treats a patient with a Fever and SPO2 of 90% or lower is pulled off shift until the patient tests negative for COV. If the patient is Confirmed, 2 weeks quarantine.

This could prove to be unsustainable if patients start rolling in with bad flu or COPD.

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They'll also test for the flu, and see if the patient has a history of COPD.

If some 90 year old woman who never leaves her home and is taken to the hospital with pneumonia, and this is her 5th visit in the past year, it would be highly likely to not be the coronavirus.

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Im told this applies even if the patient is known to have COPD. They still have to wait for a negative test before coming back to work. Sounds like they are being extremely conservative on this, which I can't blame them for. But like I said this will make it really hard to keep workers in the hospital.

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With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19

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Dr. Tedros is predisposed to say whatever is best for China. This statement is contradicted by the first documented cases in Germany.

How do you keep allowing passengers flying from countries with epidemics? You put out this statement.

coastsrs said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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A lot of doom n gloomers about to have their apocalyptic parade rained on.

Sorry your virus lost

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You're putting a lot of faith in the UN.

Everyone is hoping it isn't as bad as it appears. But to call this over based on China and WHO bull**** is pretty reckless.

coastsrs said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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A lot of doom n gloomers about to have their apocalyptic parade rained on.

Sorry your virus lost

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NOOOO!!!! WE CAN'T TRUST WHO!! JUST A MOUTHPIECE FOR THE MAN!!

Thanks. I did not know that.

VaultingChemist said:

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It's Austin.....

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Is it actually IN Austin? That tweet says people are afraid, but does not refer to cases. I may have missed another report.

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Is it actually IN Austin? That tweet says people are afraid, but does not refer to cases. I may have missed another report.

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As far as anyone knows, it is not.

This is simply panic.

No worries.....only 3.4% died.

Flu is about 0.1%

So, this could absolutely impact the dem primary if people in Travis County no show today.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/03/top-us-doctor-says-coronavirus-now-an-outbreak-possibly-a-pandemic/

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A doctor on the front lines of battling coronavirus in the US said this week that the rapid spread of the deadly bug has risen to the level of an "outbreak" and possibly even a "pandemic."

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WTF? Something isn't adding up. WHO guy says that it's not as transmissible as the flu, but frontline doctors contradict that claim (the flu isn't considered pandemic). So what gives? It's like that call that was signalled incomplete by one ref, but a touchdown by the other. This is weird as hell.

you can't have it both ways

when we rely on the WHO saying there isn't a bunch of mild/asymptomatic cases and accept that as received wisdom

and then dismiss their saying the R0 is less than flu as propaganda

maybe it's all propaganda for China and we can dismiss them entirely (and watch what Western scientists say)

VaultingChemist said:

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No worries.....only 3.4% died.

Flu is about 0.1%

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WHO: "It doesn't spread as efficiently as flu"
World: "Yay!"
WHO: "It is however several times more deadly"
World: "Crap"
WHO: "At least we haven't used the P word yet... so all is good"

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"It is however several times more deadly"

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square that with the princess cruise results with an older cohort

high levels of asymptomatic, lower IFR, really high attack rate

maybe the WHO isn't exactly to be trusted on this

it increasingly feels like the WHO is saying what needs to be said to get Chinese workers back in the factories

"China found all the cases"

"this isn't as infectious as flu"

"they are on top of this"

which is smart because we do need those people to go back to work, but we shouldn't trust what they are saying necessarily

WHO:

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"Doesn't appear to be asymptomatic in transmission."

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CYA statement



A Texas A&M University Engineering Department 20 mins ago.

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Please take special note of the email below, especially as it relates to your visitors and students who may be arriving from one of the countries listed below or traveling over spring break. They must not enter our buildings until they have self-isolated at their family home or off-campus resident for 14 days.

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CYA action

No ***** The question is: who can be trusted? No matter what, going forward its going to be difficult to communicate to the general public when a real threat happens and the general public views anything said as a bunch of bunk.

Damn, I just realized spring break begins this Thursday....****

scottimus said:

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WHO:

Quote:

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"Doesn't appear to be asymptomatic in transmission."

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CYA statement



A Texas A&M University Engineering Department 20 mins ago.

Quote:

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Please take special note of the email below, especially as it relates to your visitors and students who may be arriving from one of the countries listed below or traveling over spring break. They must not enter our buildings until they have self-isolated at their family home or off-campus resident for 14 days.

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CYA action

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That is in regards to: China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong...with Spring Break next week.

BlueMiles said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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It's Austin.....

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Is it actually IN Austin? That tweet says people are afraid, but does not refer to cases. I may have missed another report.

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My wife's company in Austin has started to only allow teleconference meetings with other offices and clients, so there are precautions being taken.

cone said:

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you can't have it both ways

when we rely on the WHO saying there isn't a bunch of mild/asymptomatic cases and accept that as received wisdom

and then dismiss their saying the R0 is less than flu as propaganda

maybe it's all propaganda for China and we can dismiss them entirely (and watch what Western scientists say)

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I am astounded that they put that 3.4% figure out there......

well we've got some experiments still cooking

the cruise ship and the South Korea dragnet

the cruise ship is pretty encouraging in a nice make-believe world where the outbreak doesn't overwhelm health care systems. 5% severe. 1% death. Much older cohort but fit enough to travel internationally. And a huge number of super mild or asymptomatic cases.

SoKo is similar in death count but I can't make sense of their severe cases since they are sending everyone to the hospital it seems. Worldometer shows 27 serious/critical, but that doesn't jive at all with expected % requiring O2 at least, so who knows how that condition is being described.

I generally listen to Scott Gottlieb. He thinks CFR all said and done in the West is between 0.3 - 0.7%. But everything hinges on effective mitigation.

Wash your hands and don't touch your face. And tell your loved ones to do the same and be serious.

I also believe the Singapore prime minister in that it's becoming more clear that the primary vector is droplets, not airborne. It may be airborne, but it's effectively spreading via surfaces and close contact with sick people.

lunchbox said:

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The BBC is now showing one of the leaked vids from Iran...

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Anyone besides me see the outsized death rates in Iran and just assume they are killing dissidents and blaming it on Corona?

When you say "we've got some experiments"... is that to say your profession is medical in nature and you're participating? Just curious, not based on any opposition.

Also, does Scott G have any predictions on R0 and do they resemble what was just uttered by the WHO?

no i'm just watching intently like everyone else

but the cruise ship has a known denominator when it comes to infected and a known age and health history

as opposed to everywhere else where who knows how far its spread and for how long

it's not going to necessarily change our math with regard to mitigation state-side, because we don't see 65+ year olds as expendable

but it's a better place to look actual results (in a non-Wuhan like scenario) than WHO dictums

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Anyone besides me see the outsized death rates in Iran and just assume they are killing dissidents and blaming it on Corona?

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Plausible.

Possibly a better outcome than the alternative that there are much closer ties between Iran and China than we were aware of. The latter would explain how so many high Iranian officials are testing positive for the virus. Were the Iranians working with the Chinese on biological weapons? Scary thought.

Japan says they may postpone the summer Olympic Games

https://www.cbssports.com/olympics/news/tokyo-olympics-games-can-be-pushed-to-end-of-2020-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-japans-olympic-minister-says/

UncoverAg00 said:

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https://nypost.com/2020/03/03/top-us-doctor-says-coronavirus-now-an-outbreak-possibly-a-pandemic/

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A doctor on the front lines of battling coronavirus in the US said this week that the rapid spread of the deadly bug has risen to the level of an "outbreak" and possibly even a "pandemic."

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WTF? Something isn't adding up. WHO guy says that it's not as transmissible as the flu, but frontline doctors contradict that claim (the flu isn't considered pandemic). So what gives? It's like that call that was signalled incomplete by one ref, but a touchdown by the other. This is weird as hell.

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The WHO is bought and paid for by China. They'll say whatever the commies want them to say.

And this is all about saving face for China at this point. Did you notice in China's reporting yesterday they are now saying several of their new cases are people who came from other hot spots (most notably Iran and Italy)?

They couldn't want to shift blame elsewhere.

Laser Wolf said:

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BlueMiles said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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It's Austin.....

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Is it actually IN Austin? That tweet says people are afraid, but does not refer to cases. I may have missed another report.

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My wife's company in Austin has started to only allow teleconference meetings with other offices and clients, so there are precautions being taken.

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Do you mind sharing which company? Our HR department is waiting on the feds to suggest any sort of change in travel plans.

AG 2000' said:

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Laser Wolf said:

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BlueMiles said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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It's Austin.....

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Is it actually IN Austin? That tweet says people are afraid, but does not refer to cases. I may have missed another report.

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My wife's company in Austin has started to only allow teleconference meetings with other offices and clients, so there are precautions being taken.

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Do you mind sharing which company? Our HR department is waiting on the feds to suggest any sort of change in travel plans.

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Pure panic.

I work in Austin and went to two client meetings today in the city.

Guess I must self quarantine now...

coastsrs said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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A lot of doom n gloomers about to have their apocalyptic parade rained on.

Sorry your virus lost

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It's just getting started.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UncoverAg00 said:

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If they're speaking the truth, that would mean the R0 is at or below around 1.3... then there should be no need for quarantine nor travel bans. If the travel bans are lifted soon and people who test positive but are not critical are let out of quarantine, we have our answer. But honestly, actions aren't matching words just yet.

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Exactly. Show me a published paper that has the R0 anywhere under 2.

It doesn't exist.