BigN--00 said:

---

Been following this thing since the beginning. Just haven't posted until now.

Thought this was worth sharing.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/coronavirus-fatality-rate-or-death-percentage-the-most-accurate-estimate-817752/

Thoughts?

---

Fatality rate based on this analysis is estimated to be between .2% and .45%. Not 2% to 4.5% but .2% to .45%.

The article is worth the read.

I wonder how the hookers and drug dealers are going to fare in all of this?

So some of you people are really worried about no power, no water supply, and nuclear meltdowns? It's going to fun to revisit this thread when this all blows over.

That article demonstrates ignorance to what case fatality rate is. They even put case in quotes. It's a technical term in epidemiology, just means - for the study, once we define what a case is, how many cases result in fatality. It's not an estimate, it's a result of the study.

[img=]https://images.app.goo.gl/ifRA9scrhbpbqjr7A[\img]

brucoh said:

---

So some of you people are really worried about no power, no water supply, and nuclear meltdowns? It's going to fun to revisit this thread when this all blows over.

---

If it blows over it will only be because swift and effective action was taken. No power and no water might be a little much, but preparation is wise.

cisgenderedAggie said:

---

brucoh said:

---

So some of you people are really worried about no power, no water supply, and nuclear meltdowns? It's going to fun to revisit this thread when this all blows over.

---

If it blows over it will only be because swift and effective action was taken. No power and no water might be a little much, but preparation is wise.

---

Prepping for disasters is always good idea. I'd never bag on some for that. I'm just amazed that now some have made the leap that we are on the verge of 100's of Chernobyls from happening because of a flu virus.

Don't conflate a discussion of the conditions with fear they will occure. Thats what gets people into trouble in the first place.
Ywia.

To each his own. I'm not amazed, but I also recognize that it's not "just a flu virus." I think it's reasonable for someone to want to know that plans exist and, with recent preparation and training, for maintaining critical systems in the face of widespread mandatory quarantines. I tend to believe that this is prepared for, but also recognize that that places way more trust in our systems than my cynical ass feels comfortable with. Suppose I'll just call that faith.

foleyt said:

---

---

Wow... how many on each team?

UncoverAg00 said:

---

foleyt said:

---

---

Wow... how many on each team?

---

300000 x n new cases on the way?

foleyt said:

---

---

I wonder how many ethnic Kurds, Azeris and Turks will be found to be "infected".

BigN--00 said:

---

Been following this thing since the beginning. Just haven't posted until now.

Thought this was worth sharing.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/coronavirus-fatality-rate-or-death-percentage-the-most-accurate-estimate-817752/

Thoughts?

---

That article determines CFR as current dead/current symptomatic.

It takes at least a week to go from symptoms to death. A more accurate CFR estimate would be current dead/symptomatic 7 days ago.

brucoh said:

---

cisgenderedAggie said:

---

brucoh said:

---

So some of you people are really worried about no power, no water supply, and nuclear meltdowns? It's going to fun to revisit this thread when this all blows over.

---

If it blows over it will only be because swift and effective action was taken. No power and no water might be a little much, but preparation is wise.

---

Prepping for disasters is always good idea. I'd never bag on some for that. I'm just amazed that now some have made the leap that we are on the verge of 100's of Chernobyls from happening because of a flu virus.

---

Life is too easy. It gives people the ability to waste time worrying about frivolous bull**** -- or worry disproportionately about nonfrivolous things. Hence "woke culture", for example.

UncoverAg00 said:

---

Perhaps not all that helpful... but here is our emergency supply list that we just filled early last week. The timing of it was because of the virus situation, but its an emergency list we use for hurricane season as well. We didn't buy waters this time round, but I don't see the need for that until closer to hurricane season. This list is for 5 people and should last us a while in a pinch and proper rationing. The particulars of this list were due to availability, and thus not all of it could be gotten in bulk.

---

I see I'm not the only one that puts "chicken boobs" on the grocery list!

Civil.Savage said:

---

Nuclear plants use power to run their systems. They do not produce energy for their own consjmption. So the reactors cooling systems for example. Or the systems you would use to shutdown the reactor....

So coal plants can output power for maybe 4 days without human input. The auotmatic coal loaders would just run out of coal.

The NP's would receive prioritt for energy if people are prepared. And could shutdown reactors safely. But worst case scenario if no one is going to coal plants or NP. About 30 days till a lot of ***a

---

Eh, kind of. I could be wrong on this - not an expert on nuke plants by any means - but my understanding is that offsite power for a nuke plant is more about maintaining grid stability than provision of actual power. The grid is one big system. If the nuke plant is receiving power from the grid at one point and providing at the other, it surely is contributing to its own stability. But my understanding is they aren't designed to operate as power islands - ie, regulate the grid frequency themselves (tho surely this is possible with some designs - line naval nuclear reactors?).

But anyway I think most plants are sized to have sufficient power to do a completely shutdown during a LOOP event, no? Barring some kind of damage to the onside black power system, even an unplanned forced shutdown is possible.

If the whole grid goes down nuke isn't going to be the only problem. That's like level five zombie apocalypse kind of stuff. That means we've been screwed for quite some time.

Mr.Infectious said:

---

I wonder how the hookers and drug dealers are going to fare in all of this?

---

Like everyone else, depends on if they're good enough at what they do and smart enough to have the funds stashed in order to allow them to limit exposure and ride things out. If so, they'll be fine.

Civil.Savage said:

---

Nuclear plants use power to run their systems. They do not produce energy for their own consjmption. So the reactors cooling systems for example. Or the systems you would use to shutdown the reactor....

So coal plants can output power for maybe 4 days without human input. The auotmatic coal loaders would just run out of coal.

The NP's would receive prioritt for energy if people are prepared. And could shutdown reactors safely. But worst case scenario if no one is going to coal plants or NP. About 30 days till a lot of ***a

---

Nuclear power works just fine for Nuke plant equipment. But they don't rely on it, hence the redundant diesel backups. All things considered, there's much more than 30 days of fuel on site. But -as with anything - you do need people to run the facility. Are you suggesting that everyone is gonna bail in their workplace/responsibilities if SHTF? If so, a power plant is the least of my worries....

hoosierAG said:

---

Just a matter of time this is breaking out throughout the country

---

I don't know why anyone would expect otherwise. There aren't parts of the country that are free from the flu during flu season. I fully expect that this is eventually going to work it's way thru the entire country and then come around again (and again, and again).

Is there any reason to think otherwise? People act like we could possibly seal off the entire country to keep it from spreading. That just doesn't seem realistic.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think this is going to be the end of the world as we know it, but I just don't think it's reasonable to believe that we will be able to keep this from reaching pretty much every part of the US. We can slow the spread, but I don't think we can stop it.

I guess the thing that most amuses me about panic buying is people who hoard bottled water. Are they're really people who don't own at least a couple of cheap 5 gallon water jugs like you can buy in the camping section of Wal-Mart?

My best guess/hope: in a month or two the media/democrats will regret the hype they gave this when it passes and Trump starts taking credit for it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Partial for today. We will probably get another 100 or so before 7pm when the new day start's with South Korea Monday #s.

Per CDC, "This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Not a very credible statement since they were claiming only yesterday that the virus was "NOT Spreading" in the community and that has proven to be massively incorrect.

CDC's performance so far has been on par with FEMA during Katrina. Just goes to show you can't count on the government when it counts.

AND a much lower mortality rate.

I get the comments about coronavirus fears being overblown, but I'm sort of confused about the folks who think this is a media conspiracy to bring down Trump by blowing up the economy. Do people really think this is all about the election?

It's partially both.

How the f can they say that when they are barely testing for it

BBRex said:

---

I get the comments about coronavirus fears being overblown, but I'm sort of confused about the folks who think this is a media conspiracy to bring down Trump by blowing up the economy. Do people really think this is all about the election?

---

Not at all, but do I think the left and MSM will take every chance they get to make unsubstantiated claims about how ill prepared we are for this because of the current administration compared to the Obama era? Absolutely!

foleyt said:

---

How the f can they say that when they are barely testing for it

---

Like I said before, if this thing was as bad as people say, shouldn't our hospitals be filling up whether we are testing or not?

I see lines out the Costco's, but not out the clinics yet

Seems like we only know about the US cases that have been in critical condition or were part of groups that were aboard. CDC isn't testing anyone and samples have to be sent in.

That Washington strain had a mutation that <10% of China strains had? If so, it's here and spreading now. It will be a couple of weeks before we hit the kind of numbers people will be alarmed by.