Middle America now... 3rd case in Illinois

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/cook-county-state-health-officials-confirm-coronavirus-case/2228843/

I read the study, but discount it considering its early in an outbreak and fact that it's Chinese reports.

Yes, the number of deaths will go up, but at a slower rate than non-lethal cases, IMO. That causes mortality rate to decrease. You seem to think deaths will increase at a rate that increases mortality rate?

Fizban said:

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Search #Costco...

What does it say about our society that when people panic-buy it is toilet paper above all that they are hoarding?

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It says that, at our core, many humans are still little more than irrational, panic driven, knee jerk, survival focused animals and many of us devolve and behave as such rather quickly. Talking. Monkeys. If not worse.

thirdcoast said:

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I read the study, but discount it considering its early in an outbreak and fact that it's Chinese reports.

Yes, the number of deaths will go up, but at a slower rate than non-lethal cases, IMO. That causes mortality rate to decrease. You seem to think deaths will increase at a rate that increases mortality rate?

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I think this disease has the very real ability to overwhelm certain countries ability to fight it and when that happens you will certainly see a death rate well above the 1% that has been reported outside of Wuhan.

I think Iran will be tested if certain current reports are to be believed.

Maybe you missed it if you can't read tweets but the reports I've been reading make me think something like this could very well be happening there now:

Quote:

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Coronavirus epidemy in Iran has past the crisis level. The country is imploding - law and order to disappear in the next days. A number of officials already died and mass infection among hospital staff and police forces reported.


Ali
@aliostad
#irancorona all of this, why?

The regime hid the initial cases since:
1) it was just before election and needed high turnout
2) due to political need, did not stop flights to china
3) source seems to becleric students from china arrived in Qom
4) did not close religious shrines
5) instead of providing information on the gravity of the risks to the public, played down and resorted to the same tactic of rhetoric "we will fight and beat it"

Now it has spread everywhere. The world now has an example on what failure to contain the virus can do.

My parents, brother, uncles and in-laws there and I am so worried about them. #irancorona #irancoronavirus

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Where are you getting a 5% mortality in Hubei? The current death toll is 2,761. The current recovered number is 31,187. Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered) puts the rate at .08%.

I imagine we'll wee a similar drop eventually in all countries. The recovered count takes a lot longer than the death count for each case, so it takes a while for the true rate to materialize.

So I'm not one to make wild predictions but this could absolutely bring down Iran's current government in the coming months.

The full thread has at least 30 posts by this guy. Quite interesting stuff:

It was estimated at 5% in Wuhan with a ~12 day lag.

Recent reports put the whole thing at 2.5% average with most in Hubei.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30068-1/fulltext

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As recorded by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), by Feb 16, 2020, there had been 70 641 confirmed cases and 1772 deaths due to COVID-19, with an average mortality of about 2.5%.1 However, in-depth analysis of these data show clear disparities in mortality rates between Wuhan (>3%), different regions of Hubei (about 2.9% on average), and across the other provinces of China (about 0.7% on average). We postulate that this is likely to be related to the rapid escalation in the number of infections around the epicentre of the outbreak, which has resulted in an insufficiency of health-care resources, thereby negatively affecting patient outcomes in Hubei

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Edit to fix the weird dot not showing up in the percentages.

One could only hope.

Lol

thirdcoast said:

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I read the study, but discount it considering its early in an outbreak and fact that it's Chinese reports.

Yes, the number of deaths will go up, but at a slower rate than non-lethal cases, IMO. That causes mortality rate to decrease. You seem to think deaths will increase at a rate that increases mortality rate?

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Lol so you read an article in the New England Journal of Medicine following 1000 cases from beginning to end and discounted it because reasons?

So what are you actually basing this off of then?

Torreon, Coah, Mexico is reporting a case. Lot's of interaction in that city with US. Will be concerned to see how the LatAm countries deal with this deal.

Way to take the L. It happens to everyone

RGV AG said:

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Torreon, Coah, Mexico is reporting a case. Lot's of interaction in that city with US. Will be concerned to see how the LatAm countries deal with this deal.

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I was on the Pacific Coast of Mexico two weeks ago and the Puerto Vallarta port authority listed zero cases. They were probably expecting it among cruise ship staff on day excursions from the ships. Many of the staff are Filipino who visit East Asian ports regularly.

If this is the straw that breaks the Iranian regime's back it may have been worth it

I'd imagine a lot of the products sitting on the shelves of stores that people are panic buying have probably been exposed to this virus.

GE said:

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If this is the straw that breaks the Iranian regime's back it may have been worth it

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Unless what takes over makes Al-Qaeda and ISIS look like a group of boy scouts.

During a crisis in the Middle East, it is very common for radical Islam to exploit it.

k2aggie07 said:

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thirdcoast said:

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I read the study, but discount it considering its early in an outbreak and fact that it's Chinese reports.

Yes, the number of deaths will go up, but at a slower rate than non-lethal cases, IMO. That causes mortality rate to decrease. You seem to think deaths will increase at a rate that increases mortality rate?

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Lol so you read an article in the New England Journal of Medicine following 1000 cases from beginning to end and discounted it because reasons?

So what are you actually basing this off of then?

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I'm basing it off data sample size and the maturity of science fighting this illness.

I see you conveniently ignored my very simple math point on mortality rate. Do you agree with that common sense logic around non-lethal cases increasing much faster than deaths? If not, what do you base an increased COVID-19 mortality rate on?

Biggest US concern for me would be a Mexico outbreak, for the obvious unscanned flow of people reasons.

UncoverAg00 said:

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I have no problem deferring the masks to health care workers. They're the front line. Protect them so they can fight.

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Username checks out

the last of the bohemians said:

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Biggest US concern for me would be a Mexico outbreak, for the obvious unscanned flow of people reasons.

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Trump's response to a question at today's presser indicated that closing the southern border is a serious consideration at this time.

First death in Australia, 78 year old man who was a passenger on the Diamond Princess.

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/western-australian-man-becomes-first-person-in-australia-to-die-from-coronavirus-c-723547

Quote:

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I'm basing it off data sample size and the maturity of science fighting this illness.

I see you conveniently ignored my very simple math point on mortality rate. Do you disagree with that common sense logic around non-lethal cases increasing much faster than deaths? If not, what do you base an increased COVID-19 mortality rate on?

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I think you're making an assumption. Namely that the experience in China of 70,000+ cases somehow isn't representative of the disease.

If the severity breakdown is the same, the ratios stay the same. Numbers just get bigger. So you're basically saying China was underreporting minor cases more than we will underreport minor cases. I don't see any reason to assume that. They presumably have as much motivation or more to overreport minor cases or underreport severe ones.

I don't see any reason to expect it to change, frankly. I think the disease has a mortality rate of 1% when good treatment is available, and if good treatment isn't available it will rise.

Rossticus said:

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the last of the bohemians said:

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Biggest US concern for me would be a Mexico outbreak, for the obvious unscanned flow of people reasons.

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Trump's response to a question at today's presser indicated that closing the southern border is a serious consideration at this time.

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And within 24 hours, a judge in Hawaii, Washington, New York, California, or DC will issue an injunction.

You can't really close the southern border though. Those coyotes have an economic incentive to find a way across.

Closing only the southern border would be stupid and open him up to criticism, and rightly so. I am for closing it, but I am for closing all borders.

Looking thru #Costco on Twitter and all the posts are coming from the following states: California, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland & Hawaii

In other words, the Dems have the deep blue states scared shirtless

Rapier108 said:

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GE said:

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If this is the straw that breaks the Iranian regime's back it may have been worth it

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Unless what takes over makes Al-Qaeda and ISIS look like a group of boy scouts.

During a crisis in the Middle East, it is very common for radical Islam to exploit it.

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Yeah that concern is why I said may have been

Well let's face it, most libs are pretty pessimistic people, so no surprise which states will go into panic.

Interesting thread suggesting the latest WA case could have originated from the first US case in WA 6 weeks ago. They already sequenced the genome for the latest case and both WA genomes contain a variation that only 3% of the Chinese genomes contained

Update on my friend's brother and sister-in-law that have corona virus from the Princess cruise. Her brother has felt good the whole time. Her sister-in-law is finally feeling better after getting treated with HIV drugs.

They are both still in the hospital because they are both still testing positive for the virus.

k2aggie07 said:

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Quote:

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I'm basing it off data sample size and the maturity of science fighting this illness.

I see you conveniently ignored my very simple math point on mortality rate. Do you disagree with that common sense logic around non-lethal cases increasing much faster than deaths? If not, what do you base an increased COVID-19 mortality rate on?

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I think you're making an assumption. Namely that the experience in China of 70,000+ cases somehow isn't representative of the disease.

If the severity breakdown is the same, the ratios stay the same. Numbers just get bigger. So you're basically saying China was underreporting minor cases more than we will underreport minor cases. I don't see any reason to assume that. They presumably have as much motivation or more to overreport minor cases or underreport severe ones.

I don't see any reason to expect it to change, frankly. I think the disease has a mortality rate of 1% when good treatment is available, and if good treatment isn't available it will rise.

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I think mortality rate is being reported as high as 4% in China and 2% elsewhere. You believe the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is going to stay the same, just bigger numbers. I think cases will outstrip deaths such that mortality decreases. We will see who is right.

thirdcoast said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Quote:

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I'm basing it off data sample size and the maturity of science fighting this illness.

I see you conveniently ignored my very simple math point on mortality rate. Do you disagree with that common sense logic around non-lethal cases increasing much faster than deaths? If not, what do you base an increased COVID-19 mortality rate on?

---

I think you're making an assumption. Namely that the experience in China of 70,000+ cases somehow isn't representative of the disease.

If the severity breakdown is the same, the ratios stay the same. Numbers just get bigger. So you're basically saying China was underreporting minor cases more than we will underreport minor cases. I don't see any reason to assume that. They presumably have as much motivation or more to overreport minor cases or underreport severe ones.

I don't see any reason to expect it to change, frankly. I think the disease has a mortality rate of 1% when good treatment is available, and if good treatment isn't available it will rise.

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I think mortality rate is being reported as high as 4% in China and 2% elsewhere. You believe the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is going to stay the same, just bigger numbers. I think cases will outstrip deaths such that mortality decreases. We will see who is right.

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And one question about China is how many deaths are the result of their piss poor management and trying to ignore it in the first 3-4 weeks.

Gg Washington state: