Unrelated, Twin Liquor is doing their dollar over cost sale today...

Next data point I want to know - when is surveillance testing starting in Texas?

UncoverAg00 said:

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My go-tos are scotch, gin and vodka. Scotch is the most expensive, so I can't go case level there and expect to make through the apocalypse event fully hammered. So that leaves gin and vodka. Both are relatively cheap, so I could go a few cases of both. Most of that will be consumed because.... you know... end of world. But you're right, maybe a few more just in case we make it out the other end and need some bartering ***** So I guess I'll be taking my trailer.

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I am fascinated by preppers on youtube and have seen videos where they make stills to distill water in case of an EMP attack

I am thinking you could claim it is for water but then make your own moonshine

Something to consider:

Years ago, an RNA virus with an R0 between 5 and 7 caused no symptoms in 72% of cases and mild flu-like symptoms in 24% of cases. Thus about 96% of those infected had virtually no problems.

During a three-year period, an average of 16,316 severe cases and 1879 deaths from this disease were reported each year. Not a big deal, right?

Why was our country so concerned about this virus?

Because in a small number of cases it caused meningitis and in a even smaller number (0.1% to 0.5%) it caused permanent paralysis. Of those that were paralyzed, only about 10% died.

Poliomyelitis was almost entirely eradicated by a vaccine, and was soon forgotten by all but those who were permanently disabled.

wessimo said:

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Next data point I want to know - when is surveillance testing starting in Texas?

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Hopefully soon. FDA has taken the extreme validation handcuffs off of local labs using PCR tests, so it should not take long to get tests up and running. PCR is pretty easy, but I'd imagine there might be heavier risk of false results without standardized kits. Better than ignorance, IMO. You can not assume a negative is definitive and manage positives until a fully validated assay is widely available.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-grants-emergency-nationwide-use-to-cdc-s-coronavirus-test

JJMt said:

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Speaking of warm weather theories, I found this article that has interesting data on the flu:

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Quote:

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Now that Palese had a model organism, he was able to begin experiments to get to the bottom of the flu season. He decided to first test whether or not the flu is transmitted better in a cold, dry climate than a warm, humid one. To test this, Palese infected batches of guinea pigs and placed them in cages adjacent to uninfected guinea pigs to allow the virus to spread from one cage to the other. The pairs of guinea pig cages were kept at varying temperatures (41F, 68F, and 86F) and humidity (20%-80%). Palese found that the virus was transmitted better at low temperatures and low humidity than at high temperatures and high humidity (see Figure 1).

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Figure 1 ~ Experimental Setup. Guinea pigs were housed in adjacent cages. Guinea pigs in cage 1 were infected by Palese with influenza. Palese observed how many guinea pigs in cage 2 became infected from the guinea pigs in cage 1 at different temperatures and levels of humidity. B, C) Transmission rates were 100% at low humidity, regardless of temperature. At high humidity, transmission occurred only at the lower temperature.

However, Palese's initial experiment did not explain why the virus was transmitted best at cooler temperatures and low humidity. Palese tested the immune systems of the animals to find out if the immune system functions poorly at low temperatures and low humidity, but he found no difference in innate immunity among the guinea pigs (5). A paper from the 1960s may provide an alternate explanation. The study tested the survival time of different viruses (i.e. the amount of time the virus remains viable and capable of causing disease) at contrasting temperatures and levels of humidity. The results from the study suggest that influenza actually survives longer at low humidity and low temperatures. At 43F with very low humidity, most of the virus was able to survive more than 23 hours, whereas at high humidity and a temperature of 90F, survival was diminished at even one hour into incubation (3).

The data from these studies are supported by a third study that reports higher numbers of flu infections the month after a very dry period (6). In case you're wondering, this is only the case in places that experience winter. In warmer climates, oddly enough, flu infection rates are correlated most closely with high humidity and lots of rain (6). Unfortunately, not much research has been done to explain these contradictory results, so it's unclear why the flu behaves so differently in disparate environments. This emphasizes the need for continued influenza research. Therefore, we can conclude that, at least in regions that have a winter season, the influenza virus survives longer in cold, dry air, so it has a greater chance of infecting another person.

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There are several lines of thought as to why influenza specifically, and some other illnesses generally, follow this cyclical pattern:

• Weather patterns drive human behavior. In areas that experience winter, people spend more of their time indoors. In warmer climates, people similarly are inside more during rainy seasons. Consequently, people spend a greater portion of their time in close quarters with others, and also likely encounter 'high contact' surfaces, such as door handles, more frequently. This increases the likelihood of exposure to an infectious agent.
• Viruses survive outside the body longer in cooler environments. Generally speaking, virus survival tends to decrease as temperature increases. This can vary from virus to virus, and is dependent on many factors, including virus structure ("Is this an RNA or DNA virus?").
• Some viruses and bacteria may be spread via aerosol transmission (small particles in air - think 'breathing in a room') or droplet transmission (particles in relatively larger respiratory droplets - think 'coughing, sneezing'). Droplets travel a shorter distance, generally accepted to be <3-6 feet. At low humidity levels, there are fewer water molecules in the air available to contact these airborne viruses and bacteria. Consequently, these infectious agents are able to travel farther in the air, rather than being weighed down by the water and falling to the ground.
• Lastly, people living in latitudes farther from the equator have less opportunity for sun exposure during the winter months. Sun-exposure (UVB) is key for Vitamin D production in the human body. Vitamin D has many important roles in our bodies, including immune system function. Many people are Vitamin D deficient, and this is particularly so during the winter.

Taken together, the influenza virus (and many other respiratory viruses) tends to live longer and travel farther during the cooler, drier winter months when we spend more time in close proximity to others and have immune systems that may be operating at less than peak performance.

Tanya 93 said:

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UncoverAg00 said:

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My go-tos are scotch, gin and vodka. Scotch is the most expensive, so I can't go case level there and expect to make through the apocalypse event fully hammered. So that leaves gin and vodka. Both are relatively cheap, so I could go a few cases of both. Most of that will be consumed because.... you know... end of world. But you're right, maybe a few more just in case we make it out the other end and need some bartering ***** So I guess I'll be taking my trailer.

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I am fascinated by preppers on youtube and have seen videos where they make stills to distill water in case of an EMP attack

I am thinking you could claim it is for water but then make your own moonshine

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It may or may not be true that I've been grooming my wife to prepare herself for me getting a distiller... definitely just for water. I promise.

Soap and water is best for hand washing. If you want to go the extra mile, you can use a 0.05% bleach solution (1:100 dilution). That is what we used at all the hand disinfection stations when I deployed to the Sierra Leone Ebola outbreak in early 2015.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Back on topic.... at some point we'll have to decide if we just need to let it run it's course or try to quarantine everyone and everything.


The constant unexpected disruptions could be worse than the disease. I'm starting to think we say **** it and let it run free.

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agreed right now there are a couple of unknown origin cases on the west coast and it is causing panic and overreaction. Soon when there are hundreds of cases all over the nation there will be a shift back to reality as we realize you can't shut down every public space for a 3 day deep cleaning.

Hey, my 12 month old has eczema on his arms and legs. Anything I can do?

Everyone debating sanitizer, soap, clorox, etc. should check this out -

https://www.nea.gov.sg/our-services/public-cleanliness/environmental-cleaning-guidelines/guidelines/interim-list-of-household-products-and-active-ingredients-for-disinfection-of-covid-19

Via Singapre's ministry of health, they've tested various chemicals, etc. and how good a job they do nuking coronavirus.

Some very good and potentially life saving info on this link.

Teflon Don. said:

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Hey, my 12 month old has eczema on his arms and legs. Anything I can do?

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One thing is for certain, you can't send the little tyke back and get a replacement... we looked into that. Tell him to rub some dirt in and walk it off. Can he walk yet?

Website is down for me, care to share?

Bullpen Chias said:

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Zero deaths recorded for children under 10 so far. Pretty amazing stat.

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I guess I am safe! Everyone says I act like a 10 year old.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Aah good ol communism, "they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work"

wessimo said:

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Woah!!

Edit - possibly fake news.

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What did it say? Cause it gone

It is the Pope tested positive. Fake news, but real news is that he has canceled appearances for the last two days due to illness.

Why is anyone worried about a virus??
According to AOC and many on the left, the world is doomed regardless and everyone will be gone in 10 - 12 years anyway???
Just saying.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Monte Carlo, then hopping on a Crystal cruise around the coast of Italy and ending in Venice

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FYI our travel agent said cruise lines are starting to extend final payment options so that people don't cance 2-3 months out. Gives people more time to wait and see.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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Website is down for me, care to share?

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We have already paid for ours, but we have travel insurance. Also, the cruises that crystal has cancelled so far has offered pretty reasonable compensation. As it stands now we will probably go, but still in a holding pattern.

38% of Americans are hopelessly stupid.

This is a first world problem I know but I did a study abroad marketing course at A&M back in the day and it was awesome. A&M is cancelling theirs as well. Sucks for these students.

PJYoung said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Today's high in Quito is 15 degrees colder than Montgomery County's. Singapore is literally the only country this is in now with consistently warm/hot weather this time of year and we have seen extremely slow spread there.

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Still looking good

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Remarkable

JJMt said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Website is down for me, care to share?

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I just noted that the #1 disinfectant is "accelerated" H2O2. Anyone know exactly what that is?

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You have to throw it

Rossticus said:

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JJMt said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Website is down for me, care to share?

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I just noted that the #1 disinfectant is "accelerated" H2O2. Anyone know exactly what that is?

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You have to throw it

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Put it in a watergun... then you can feel like you're in a coronavirus battle