IrishTxAggie said:

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richardag said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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Cassius said:

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the latest numbers I see right now...

81172 cases
2768 dead
30,258 recovered


so its looking more like the fatality rate is around 8%

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Those are worldwide numbers.

I believe I read somewhere the annual numbers for influenza in the US alone are;
-200,000 infected
-35,000 fatalities

edit forgot to type fatalities after 35,000

That doesn't sound right for annual influenza in the US alone anyone have accurate numbers?

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The flu in the US numbers are in the millions. Deaths caused from the flu or complications brought on by it range anywhere from 10,000 to 80,000 in 2018.

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How anyone is still using historic seasonal flu strains as a comparison is beyond me.

What happens when a novel coronavirus goes pandemic? No vaccines, herd immunity, or antivirals? You don't have to imagine, it's literally happened several times in human history.

The risk, of not contained, is severe.

I heard the perfect explanation of why China does the things it does. No one had explained it so simplistically for me.

I forgot who it was, but I think it was someone from the White House. On Kilmeade Radio Show this morning.

Quote:

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What happened is that the people of China traded everyday freedoms that we have in America (such as freedom of speech, media, religion) for economic prosperity promised by the communist party.

That is the deal. The economy is lifted for all and people do as they are told.

The question is now, what do the people think when the government (party) can't stop a single virus and the economy tanks? How can they trust them with everything else if they can't secure health and the economy.

That is the question, and we could very well be looking at a revolution in China.

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This perfectly explains why China will lie to world to "save face." Because if they lose that with their people, it is game over for the regime.

Those Iran death numbers. Does Iran have a large elderly population?

Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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#Caronavirus is trending.....

Details are important, especially if people think the economy is going to tank and they are going to get sick and die.

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The woman went counter to her bosses comments that instilled panic. It wasn't her job. You say POTUS signed up for it, then let him do his job. Not have some woman related a man that hates him go rogue with a conference call

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I know this is a crazy idea, but isn't it possible that this woman you are referring to, who is an MD and director of CDC Respiratory Diseases, has a better grasp on the situation and the science?

You claim it isn't her job to hold a conference call? That literally seems to be a key part of working at the CDC. Communicating information on the threat, severity and response to diseases is a key part of the CDC.

This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

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Fine. Don't you think you should run it up the chain before holding a press conference? Isn't that something the POTUS or Alex Azar should sign off on before holding the presser?

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This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

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100% agree but the government started that a long time ago when they politicized global warming via data manipulation.

I'm not arguing for or against the statements made and the political motivations behind the CDC. However, I think it is rational to not always assume the government is acting in good faith...

You think people fakes this 10 days in advance of her comments?

Someone asked for what the serious complications for my friend's sister-in-law was. I've posted before that she has pneumonia from corona virus. It doesn't sound like she ever had to be intubated, but she kept on getting worse until they started her on some HIV drugs. I do not know what drugs they started her on.

Another update came this morning saying that she is doing better and sounding stronger on the phone.

Once again, the couple is in their 60s or early 70s and are Caucasian US citizens stuck in Japan. They were healthy enough to go on a cruise to celebrate their anniversary when they got sick.

Civil.Savage said:

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You think people fakes this 10 days in advance of her comments?

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Wow. I hadn't connected it was the same person.

Gotta get their plans in motion before the public becomes aware of the potential severity

And Rod R's sister? You can't make this stuff up

"Officially" but still, it's showing how this is quickly becoming global.

scottimus said:

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I heard the perfect explanation of why China does the things it does. No one had explained it so simplistically for me.

I forgot who it was, but I think it was someone from the White House. On Kilmeade Radio Show this morning.

Quote:

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What happened is that the people of China traded everyday freedoms that we have in America (such as freedom of speech, media, religion) for economic prosperity promised by the communist party.

That is the deal. The economy is lifted for all and people do as they are told.

The question is now, what do the people think when the government (party) can't stop a single virus and the economy tanks? How can they trust them with everything else if they can't secure health and the economy.

That is the question, and we could very well be looking at a revolution in China.

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This perfectly explains why China will lie to world to "save face." Because if they lose that with their people, it is game over for the regime.

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The Western reporters that have been on the ground inside of China for years said they had never experienced anything like what they saw when the famous doctor died. The outrage on social media was unprecedented and there is ZERO doubt that the idea that the people could rise up against the party over the party's response is what is fueling the vastly underreported numbers.

I would be surprised if the real #s aren't the 8 to 10x higher figure that was cited last week by somebody that supposedly had connections to the White House.

Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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#Caronavirus is trending.....

Details are important, especially if people think the economy is going to tank and they are going to get sick and die.

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The woman went counter to her bosses comments that instilled panic. It wasn't her job. You say POTUS signed up for it, then let him do his job. Not have some woman related a man that hates him go rogue with a conference call

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I know this is a crazy idea, but isn't it possible that this woman you are referring to, who is an MD and director of CDC Respiratory Diseases, has a better grasp on the situation and the science?

You claim it isn't her job to hold a conference call? That literally seems to be a key part of working at the CDC. Communicating information on the threat, severity and response to diseases is a key part of the CDC.

This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

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Fine. Don't you think you should run it up the chain before holding a press conference? Isn't that something the POTUS or Alex Azar should sign off on before holding the presser?

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No, I do not think politicians should muzzle or silence the experts on public health when dealing with a pandemic for political gain or cover.

When the president chooses to discuss the stock market and impact of the disease on that instead of the actual science, maybe it is time to let the experts get the facts out.

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How would briefing the people in charge of it prior to your report a a muzzle?? She didn't tell POTUS or Azar!! That is the biggest problem here!

Gee... I wonder why we don't have a unified message. Could it be that subordinates aren't doing what they're supposed to like briefing the people in charge?

Quote:

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Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of today
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]

Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 383 positive (4.0% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]

France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results. [source]

Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]


1st case in North Macedonia: a woman who had recently returned from Italy. [source]
1st case in Pakistan.
1 new case in Finland.

1 new case in Lebanon: a woman who had returned last week from Iran on the same flight as the first case.

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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#Caronavirus is trending.....

Details are important, especially if people think the economy is going to tank and they are going to get sick and die.

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The woman went counter to her bosses comments that instilled panic. It wasn't her job. You say POTUS signed up for it, then let him do his job. Not have some woman related a man that hates him go rogue with a conference call

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I know this is a crazy idea, but isn't it possible that this woman you are referring to, who is an MD and director of CDC Respiratory Diseases, has a better grasp on the situation and the science?

You claim it isn't her job to hold a conference call? That literally seems to be a key part of working at the CDC. Communicating information on the threat, severity and response to diseases is a key part of the CDC.

This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

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I was on that conference call. Monitoring this now falls a bit under my duties. The difference between what she was saying publicly and what Trump is saying aren't that far off. She was clearly saying hey this is minimal here right now. It's a rising concern and we're working on it and you should be prepared for it to cause disruptions at some point in the future. Trump is saying we're working on it and it's minimal here. He just didn't say anything about the future.

Now is there a possibility that the CDC is significantly underplaying the number of cases in the US. Yes I think that is probably likely. For a couple of reasons: 1) to prevent a panic that is clearly unwarranted at this point, would be counter productive to the economy, social stability and their surveillance efforts. Those efforts are not going to benefit from every hypochondriac in the country flooding emergency rooms. 2) Her message was clearly directed not at the general public but to other parts of the government and the business community. Hey it's time to think through what a general disruption in business would look like. My company which is a transportation company is now thinking through that at a very basic level and starting communication with DOT about it. That's prudent. 3) Are you going to get mixed messages from a CDC official at a much lower level and the President who is travelling on a foreign mission. Dear God yes. Think about how many layers it went through between the working level and then branching out in two directions to this doc and to the President. Then guess what questions and other inputs Trump has. What's the immediate concern. Less than 20 confirmed cases or the stock market losing 7% in 3 days? Yeah OF COURSE he's going to try and allay fears while working on strategy for this. When the question of politics came up she avoided it entirely. Even the budget piece. Completely avoided it. Maybe scottimus can give his impression of her response on that question but I, for one, thought it entirely appropriate.

Italy and Iran must have a very large number of virus carriers to be exporting so many cases.

Italy has exported to Brazil, Spain, Greece, Algeria, Macedonia

Iran has exported to Canada, Bahrain, Oman, possibly Afghanistan and Turkey

Civil.Savage said:

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You think people fakes this 10 days in advance of her comments?

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that tweet may not be credible, but the line "We're trying to prevent a panic as that will only make things worse" is absolutely what the CDC is doing by only testing 20 people per day.

Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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#Caronavirus is trending.....

Details are important, especially if people think the economy is going to tank and they are going to get sick and die.

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The woman went counter to her bosses comments that instilled panic. It wasn't her job. You say POTUS signed up for it, then let him do his job. Not have some woman related a man that hates him go rogue with a conference call

---

I know this is a crazy idea, but isn't it possible that this woman you are referring to, who is an MD and director of CDC Respiratory Diseases, has a better grasp on the situation and the science?

You claim it isn't her job to hold a conference call? That literally seems to be a key part of working at the CDC. Communicating information on the threat, severity and response to diseases is a key part of the CDC.

This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

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Fine. Don't you think you should run it up the chain before holding a press conference? Isn't that something the POTUS or Alex Azar should sign off on before holding the presser?

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No, I do not think politicians should muzzle or silence the experts on public health when dealing with a pandemic for political gain or cover.

When the president chooses to discuss the stock market and impact of the disease on that instead of the actual science, maybe it is time to let the experts get the facts out.

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How would briefing the people in charge of it prior to your report a a muzzle?? She didn't tell POTUS or Azar!! That is the biggest problem here!

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How do you know that?

If the CDC is doing press conferences and releasing information without telling their boss that is an issue.

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It's pretty obvious when the CDC comments are running counter to that of Alex Azar and POTUS.

Fist case reported in Pakistan...according to FB.

but do they know Kung Fu?

<insert Keanu>

IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Sasappis said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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#Caronavirus is trending.....

Details are important, especially if people think the economy is going to tank and they are going to get sick and die.

---

The woman went counter to her bosses comments that instilled panic. It wasn't her job. You say POTUS signed up for it, then let him do his job. Not have some woman related a man that hates him go rogue with a conference call

---

I know this is a crazy idea, but isn't it possible that this woman you are referring to, who is an MD and director of CDC Respiratory Diseases, has a better grasp on the situation and the science?

You claim it isn't her job to hold a conference call? That literally seems to be a key part of working at the CDC. Communicating information on the threat, severity and response to diseases is a key part of the CDC.

This is the problem when you mix politics with science. The GOV should be speaking with one voice and it should be based on reality and science. Not based on political messaging.

---

Fine. Don't you think you should run it up the chain before holding a press conference? Isn't that something the POTUS or Alex Azar should sign off on before holding the presser?

---

No, I do not think politicians should muzzle or silence the experts on public health when dealing with a pandemic for political gain or cover.

When the president chooses to discuss the stock market and impact of the disease on that instead of the actual science, maybe it is time to let the experts get the facts out.

---

How would briefing the people in charge of it prior to your report a a muzzle?? She didn't tell POTUS or Azar!! That is the biggest problem here!

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How do you know that?

If the CDC is doing press conferences and releasing information without telling their boss that is an issue.

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It's pretty obvious when the CDC comments are running counter to that of Alex Azar and POTUS.

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I listened to the CDC conference with Rosy's sister and went on as a media rep. Even tried to ask a question.

The Doc mostly seemed to be warning people to prepare that this event is going to grow and that the cat is out of the bag. Start preparing now, school from home, work from home, talk to your children about possible changes in the daily routine. She said she spoke with hers that morning. People were kind of thrown off base, like "What is this lady saying...talk to your Children...what are you implying?"...IMHO Seems she knows that massive quarantines are inevitable to stop the spread here in the US. That, or she is Deep State using her office to help hurt Trump...Considering she is a Medical Doc. I would hope not considering she had the ears of the entire national media.

I am listening to Rush right now and I think the Rush is taking this too lightly. I don't think he (ironically) understands the underlying issues with this kind of disease. I do not think this political, however, I do think Trump may be a little to light on the awareness issue. Sure, things are fine now, but this is not a policy or economic matter that he is good at controlling. He does not want to see his pride and joy (the economy) sink. However he can't control this.

This thing is literally alive.

Cassius said:

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the latest numbers I see right now...

81172 cases
2768 dead
30,258 recovered


so its looking more like the fatality rate is around 8% of confirmed reported cases. Actual mortality rate for all people exposed/infected may only be a tiny fraction of a fraction of a percent.

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FIFY

wannaggie said:

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Cassius said:

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the latest numbers I see right now...

81172 cases
2768 dead
30,258 recovered


so its looking more like the fatality rate is around 8% of confirmed reported cases. Actual mortality rate for all people exposed/infected may only be a tiny fraction of a fraction of a percent.

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FIFY

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Again no one trusts those numbers b/c we know that China was not reporting deaths of those suspected of having it but not confirmed as a different cause of death and not following up. We don't know but most of the reputable medical literature is indicating between a 2-3% mortality rate concentrate significantly in older populations with pre-existing conditions and a complication rate (severe or critical case requiring hospitalization) of 12-17% with 14-15% being the most common range. Could it be far less in Western countries? Sure. Does anyone on this board know definitively what that is? No. Hell we're still not sure exactly how many people the Swine Flu pandemic infected and killed in 2009.

Not sure if CDC is recommending that local governments formulate plans to cope with local outbreaks of COVID-19, but I saw a notice that a county in Texas scheduled a meeting with the local emergency management team and the public regarding coronavirus preparedness.

aezmvp said:

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wannaggie said:

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Cassius said:

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the latest numbers I see right now...

81172 cases
2768 dead
30,258 recovered


so its looking more like the fatality rate is around 8% of confirmed reported cases. Actual mortality rate for all people exposed/infected may only be a tiny fraction of a fraction of a percent.

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FIFY

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Again no one trusts those numbers b/c we know that China was not reporting deaths of those suspected of having it but not confirmed as a different cause of death and not following up. We don't know but most of the reputable medical literature is indicating between a 2-3% mortality rate concentrate significantly in older populations with pre-existing conditions and a complication rate (severe or critical case requiring hospitalization) of 12-17% with 14-15% being the most common range. Could it be far less in Western countries? Sure. Does anyone on this board know definitively what that is? No. Hell we're still not sure exactly how many people the Swine Flu pandemic infected and killed in 2009.

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I sure as heck wouldn't self report minor symptoms which may ultimately be a coronavirus infection knowing what will be in store for you. Yeah, you can't trust the numbers, though I'd still say overall the fatality rate will skew overall lower as the under reported mild or asymptomatic cases would be not reported in far greater rate than the severe cases which would force people to seek medical attention.

CDC updated their testing tally. 31 more tests since yesterday with one positive (travel related).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Well, leftist Twitter is going bonkers blaming Trump for the whole pandemic. They will hang their hat on this as the reason to kick Trump out. Got 'em?

I contacted my council member about this last night. She responded that the city and the county have been in discussions about Covid. They learned a lot from the Ebola outbreak a few years ago and already have plans in place that could be tweaked in case this becomes a more widespread problem. DFW also has set up a quarantine area in case any passengers exhibit any symptoms on arrival.

I emailed the school district yesterday and they have their heads in the sand. They gave me flu stats. I am still sending my kid to school because according to some of the JAMA papers I've been reading, only 8 children have been hospitalized in China due to Covid. Most of them seemingly shrug off this virus like a common cold. I do emphasize hand washing, distancing and not touching her face every morning, however. And I make her change out of her clothes after school and wash arms and face. Overkill, maybe. But whatever. As the school district reminded me, it *IS* flu season.

Civil.Savage said:

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You think people fakes this 10 days in advance of her comments?

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The first time this made the rounds most of us (me included) dismissed it outright, because it seemed inconceivable that someone in her position would be stupid enough to send these texts.

I'm having second thoughts now, but I still think it is fake because I feel like the news would have leaked if there were already thousands of cases 10 days ago.