My teenage son had the same thing. The doctor said the test has few false positives but frequent false negatives. Doc said you look like you have the flu to me and prescribed Tamiflu.tdm89 said:AG 2000' said:The Fife said:
My guess is the CDC isn't testing because who are you going to test? I haven't heard of people in the US showing up at doctors or hospitals with symptoms of this.
Everyone with flu like symptoms who test negative on their flu test.
My wife and I fit this description nearly 3 weeks ago when we went to the doctor. Flu like symptoms with low to no fever. Negative flu tests. No further testing ordered and sent home on Tamiflu and symptom-treating meds.
Most likely explanation is a false negative on the flu test and I definitely don't believe we had Covid 19. But, my point is that in South Korea or elsewhere we would've been tested for it. With no travel or extenuating circumstances there was no thought to test us here in the US.
Tex100 said:My teenage son had the same thing. The doctor said the test has few false positives but frequent false negatives. Doc said you look like you have the flu to me and prescribed Tamiflu.tdm89 said:AG 2000' said:The Fife said:
My guess is the CDC isn't testing because who are you going to test? I haven't heard of people in the US showing up at doctors or hospitals with symptoms of this.
Everyone with flu like symptoms who test negative on their flu test.
My wife and I fit this description nearly 3 weeks ago when we went to the doctor. Flu like symptoms with low to no fever. Negative flu tests. No further testing ordered and sent home on Tamiflu and symptom-treating meds.
Most likely explanation is a false negative on the flu test and I definitely don't believe we had Covid 19. But, my point is that in South Korea or elsewhere we would've been tested for it. With no travel or extenuating circumstances there was no thought to test us here in the US.
That's not how that works.PearlJammin said:A phase I for a vaccine was just submitted to FDA. I think it will be weeks or a few months considering the resources they are throwing at this.AlaskanAg99 said:
As I said before. All tourist visas should be cancelled. All visits for any reason of non-US citizens should be revoked. Anyone leaving the country to anywhere will be quarantined upon their return.
Anyone entering the country from anywhere will be quarantined.
12-18 months for a vaccine. Can't stop it but can slow it down.
Quote:
Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters the agency expects to see more cases in the U.S.
"As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder," Messonnier said.
She said two out of the three requirements for a "pandemic of new disease" have been met, and businesses and families should begin to prepare for a larger outbreak in the U.S.
"It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses," she said. "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."
Messonnier added that she had spoken to her own children about the virus Tuesday morning.
"While I didn't think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives," she said.
rgag12 said:Bo Darville said:Quote:
An illness that does not cause death or a serious condition for 95% of those who happen to get it with today's modern medicine.
The mortality rate isn't the problem. You have to stop thinking this is just a "bad flu" and that pandemics can no longer happen.
What is this new virus then? Please tell me. All I have heard is that it has flu like symptoms, is transmitted just like the flu, and has about the same mortality rate as the flu.
Oh and is from the same virus family as, you guessed it, the flu
Spanish Flu had R0 of about 1.8. Covid-19 has an R0 of about 4.08 to as high as 6, depending on the study. After 7 transmissions, Spanish Flu would have infected 33 persons, while Covid-19 would have infected 2805 people.Waltonloads08 said:
Where do you get 2-3 orders of magnitude more infectious than influenza?
Basically everything you've written here is wrong. Congratulations, that's impressive.Quote:
What is this new virus then? Please tell me. All I have heard is that it has flu like symptoms, is transmitted just like the flu, and has about the same mortality rate as the flu.
Oh and is from the same virus family as, you guessed it, the flu
scottimus said:
I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!
The Atlantic had a good article on it.cisgenderedAggie said:
Nearly certain that you don't do human efficacy trials on vaccines. Maybe some monkeys. 18 months seems doable if it's critical enough.
Quote:
Overall, if all pieces fell into place, Hatchett guesses it would be 12 to 18 months before an initial product could be deemed safe and effective. That timeline represents "a vast acceleration compared with the history of vaccine development," he told me. But it's also unprecedentedly ambitious. "Even to propose such a timeline at this point must be regarded as hugely aspirational," he added.
Even if that idyllic year-long projection were realized, the novel product would still require manufacturing and distribution. "An important consideration is whether the underlying approach can then be scaled to produce millions or even billions of doses in coming years," Hatchett said. Especially in an ongoing emergency, if borders closed and supply chains broke, distribution and production could prove difficult purely as a matter of logistics.
Fauci's initial optimism seemed to wane, too. Last week he said that the process of vaccine development was proving "very difficult and very frustrating." For all the advances in basic science, the process cannot proceed to an actual vaccine without extensive clinical testing, which requires manufacturing many vaccines and meticulously monitoring outcomes in people. The process could ultimately cost hundreds of millions of dollarsmoney that the NIH, start-ups, and universities don't have. Nor do they have the production facilities and technology to mass-manufacture and distribute a vaccine.
Sid Farkas said:
Checked back a couple of pages and didn't see this from CDC
Maybe the chicken Littles are on to something?
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484530-top-health-official-warns-coronavirus-spread-in-us-inevitable-its-not-aQuote:
Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters the agency expects to see more cases in the U.S.
"As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder," Messonnier said.
She said two out of the three requirements for a "pandemic of new disease" have been met, and businesses and families should begin to prepare for a larger outbreak in the U.S.
"It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses," she said. "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."
Messonnier added that she had spoken to her own children about the virus Tuesday morning.
"While I didn't think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives," she said.
Beat40 said:AlaskanAg99 said:
As I said before. All tourist visas should be cancelled. All visits for any reason of non-US citizens should be revoked. Anyone leaving the country to anywhere will be quarantined upon their return.
Anyone entering the country from anywhere will be quarantined.
12-18 months for a vaccine. Can't stop it but can slow it down.
How do you realistically do this without inciting panic?
Quote:
The Six Nations rugby union match between Ireland and Italy, which was due to take place this weekend in Dublin, has been cancelled over coronavirus fears. The Irish health minister, Simon Harris, told RTE news:
The very clear view of the public health emergency team was that this game should not go ahead and that it would constitute a significant risk, because a very large number of people will be travelling from what is now an affected region.
My department will be contacting the IRFU in relation to this. I know it will cause a great disappointment to many but it is important to make decisions in relation to public health above and beyond all other considerations.
Bobcat06 said:
R0 between 3-6. Flu is ~2
KorbinDallas said:Bobcat06 said:
R0 between 3-6. Flu is ~2
An order of magnitude is 10x. So no NCov19 is not 20-30 times more transmissible as far as we know.
Big Al 1992 said:
Panic will set in once the first school closes for 2 weeks because a janitor or lunch lady got it. Or a celebrity gets it. Or a sporting event gets cancelled.
They are reacting that way for a reason. Its an incredibly infectious disease spread through the air and 50000 people from an area with the infection all packed in a stadium is a bad idea.Big Al 1992 said:
And look how they're reacting!
siapQuote:
Outbreak-related news in Seoul took on a more morbid tone Tuesday following reports in the local press that a civil servant from the Ministry of Justice's Emergency Safety Planning Office jumped off a bridge in Seoul at around 5 am local time Tuesday.
The official was one of several individuals charged with overseeing the government's response to the virus.
How would that help? I guess it would help if it indicated she's been inconsistent in her position, but it doesn't.Civil.Savage said:this is the same lady who was accused of blocking someone for posting pictures of a text conversation between her and a family friend.... where she indicated to the friend it was much worse than being reported. She went silent on twitter a few days later after first ignoring/ blocking many more people who brought the issue back up. hthSid Farkas said:
Checked back a couple of pages and didn't see this from CDC
Maybe the chicken Littles are on to something?
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484530-top-health-official-warns-coronavirus-spread-in-us-inevitable-its-not-aQuote:
Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters the agency expects to see more cases in the U.S.
"As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder," Messonnier said.
She said two out of the three requirements for a "pandemic of new disease" have been met, and businesses and families should begin to prepare for a larger outbreak in the U.S.
"It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses," she said. "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."
Messonnier added that she had spoken to her own children about the virus Tuesday morning.
"While I didn't think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives," she said.
Lol.Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:scottimus said:
I would like to welcome all the newbies and deniers (from the previous ~100 pages) to this thread!
So you are excited and happy that this turned into a thing? That tells me all I need to know about you and others on this thread...
Well, you've been right so often...Shanked Punt said:
A sheer and utter panic is about to break out.
