JJMt said:
OldAg, you don't trust the numbers because they come from the government. Where are you getting your numbers and information that lead you to such dire conclusions?
What specific reasons do you have to believe that the numbers from the U.S. are lies?
As a rule -- governments lie more than they tell the truth. This is about anything and everything. But, when the markets are at risk -- they will especially lie.
Do you really believe the CDC figure that there are only 35 cases of CoronaV in the U.S. as of yesterday? 35? That's just an absurd number at this point in the pandemic.
Three things:
1) I am getting my numbers from the biological nature of the COVID-19 virus as reported in studies (both non-peer reviewed and peer-reviewed) and as reviewed by researchers that are far more expert than I on the subject. Early on these researchers pinned a relatively high RO value to this virus. I posted those figures here early on in this thread. As more became known about the virus - the RO increased. We now know that is far easily transmitted than initially suspected. It is, indeed, a pandemic.
- We know the incubation period is 24+ days and that the infected are asymptomatic during most of this period
- We know that it is spread via respitaroy droplets
- We know that it is spread via urine and feces
- We know that it is spread via surface contact as it can live up to 9 days at ambient room temperature on surfaces.
2) I am interpreting the data within the observations of what countries have *done* in reponse to the virus -- not what they have *said*. What have they done? Not just quarantine the sick -- they quarantined the community. They did not simply stop there -- they quarantined the city. They did not stop there either -- they quarantined the region. Within the quarantine -- China literally welded the doors shut of those suspected of being infected so that they could not leave their homes. Such actions are not taken for a mild virus of stuffy noses and coughs. China also closed down the Internet to halt citizen reporting of what is going on there.
Those are drastic actions. Such are taken only when a deadly virus is killing at rates that could justify such, for China is losing econonmic power in the face of such actions -- now, and in the future -- as governments react to make sure that China is no longer sole source for various goods and services.
3) How are the numbers that are reported being derived? Who is being tested? What criteria invokes the test? Who is counting the results of the test? Can those numbers, no matter the diligence by which they are collected and reported, be used as *any* guide as to the actual infection rate given Item 1 above? Certainly not given a 24+ day incubation period.
What we don't know is the mortality rate. We had a perfect chance to calculate that for the Japanese Cruise ship. But, once the infected started dying -- they broke up the passengers and moved them around the world, thus masking the final results from the public. What we do know is that the infection rate was a hockey stick.
Unlke the red-herring and straw men that IrishAggie throws my way -- I am not advising anyone to head to a bunker, or put on a tin foil hat. I have simply advised people to stock up on about 30-60 days of food stuffs, disposable goods, and medicines should things deteriorate in their area due this pandemic. If you don't need it for the COVID-19 pandemic -- perhaps you will for the next hurricane or tornado. Perhaps you lose work and can fall back on it. Perhaps you donate it to the local food bank.
Reasonable advice, would you not agree -- in the face of 100s of millions being quarantined due to a virus with an RO of 4-8, and an unknown mortality rate? Indeed, advice that is win/win no matter how this ends.