japantiger said:

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Deaths by age:

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This is the profile of a well designed Bio-weapon. It is important to take out the octogenarians and nonagenarians before starting a battle.

This includes the cruise ship passengers however with the new cases in S. Korea and Japan the trend is still very much up:

Here is the chart outside of China but excluding the cruise ship in Japan:

Possible case in quarantine in Honduras.

https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2020/02/18/internacionales/2642015-llega-a-tegucigalpa-primera-hondurena-con-sospechas-de-coronavirus

VaultingChemist said:

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nortex97 said:

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Outside of Petri dish settings (like urban china, cruise ship) it seems modern medicine and healthcare standards makes this just a tad worse than a regular flu outbreak.

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The virus kills 10 times as many healthy young people (0.2% vs 0.02%) as the regular flu. In addition, it requires hospitalization of about 10% of those infected.

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I think a lot of that is based on the initial numbers and Chinese stats.

goodAg80 said:

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japantiger said:

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Deaths by age:

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This is the profile of a well designed Bio-weapon. It is important to take out the octogenarians and nonagenarians before starting a battle.

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That's actually not a bad plan, those mean old farts are tough to flush out of a well fortified Denny's at 3:30 pm

nortex97 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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nortex97 said:

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Outside of Petri dish settings (like urban china, cruise ship) it seems modern medicine and healthcare standards makes this just a tad worse than a regular flu outbreak.

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The virus kills 10 times as many healthy young people (0.2% vs 0.02%) as the regular flu. In addition, it requires hospitalization of about 10% of those infected.

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I think a lot of that is based on the initial numbers and Chinese stats.

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That is based on over 70,000 cases in China. However, there is not much difference so far in the cases outside of China.

The percentage of severe cases is the real concern as it can quickly overwhelm your healthcare systems.

PJYoung said:

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Here is the chart outside of China but excluding the cruise ship in Japan:

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That looks roughly linear. 500 people in 32 days ~= 16 people per day. 437,500,000 days to infect everyone.

JJMt said:

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PJYoung said:

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This includes the cruise ship passengers however with the new cases in S. Korea and Japan the trend is still very much up:

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Drilling into the data a bit deeper may relieve some of the concern. There were only 30 new cases outside China and the cruise ship yesterday, but that 30 includes the 14 in the U.S. that were flown in Sunday or Monday from the cruise ship (are those being double-counted - it's not clear.). Thus, if you exclude those 14, there were only 16 new cases outside China yesterday. S. Korea only had 1 new case, although Japan did have 8 new cases. Singapore also had 4 new cases.

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37 new cases today:



Plus those 2 in Iran.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

JJMt said:

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goodAg80 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the chart outside of China but excluding the cruise ship in Japan:

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That looks roughly linear. 500 people in 32 days ~= 16 people per day. 437,500,000 days to infect everyone.

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It is linear, although the average for the last 4 days has increased to ~25/day. That's too short a time frame to make any generalizations, though, and it also includes the 14 confirmed cases from the cruise ship that were transferred to the U.S. (thereby shifting them on the spread sheets from the Cruise Ship category to the U.S. category). Take them out and the last 4 day average drops back to 20.25/day, which is still an increase.

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I made that chart - it doesn't include the 14 headed to the US from the cruise ship. I counted 22 yesterday.

JJMt said:

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Are those numbers from today, 2/19? Also, what's the source? Those numbers are definitely not good.

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

JJMt said:

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goodAg80 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Here is the chart outside of China but excluding the cruise ship in Japan:

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That looks roughly linear. 500 people in 32 days ~= 16 people per day. 437,500,000 days to infect everyone.

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It is linear, although the average for the last 4 days has increased to ~25/day. That's too short a time frame to make any generalizations, though, and it also includes the 14 confirmed cases from the cruise ship that were transferred to the U.S. (thereby shifting them on the spread sheets from the Cruise Ship category to the U.S. category). Take them out and the last 4 day average drops back to 20.25/day, which is still an increase.

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I used the wink emoji.

Depends. Consider most western armies (armies! Not civilian populations) in history have surrendered when sustaining 10-20% casualties.

If you wanted to hurt an opponent to provide an opportunity but not do any lasting damage, this would be about right. A humane bioweapon.

Screenshot the image and use imgur.com to share. It has a simple interface to do it.

JJMt said:

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PJYoung said:

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JJMt said:

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Are those numbers from today, 2/19? Also, what's the source? Those numbers are definitely not good.

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Thanks. How do you copy and paste charts like that here? They're not jpgs or other pics. I've tried but it doesn't work for me.

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onpaste.com since snaggy has been down. You crop it and then hit the i to auto upload to imgurl. Pretty slick.

JJMt said:

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I'm confused (which is all too easy to do) - the Johns Hopkins site shows 472 confirmed cases outside of China on 2/18, excluding the cruise ship but including the 14. If you deduct the 14, that leaves only 458 confirmed cases, but your chart makes it look like there's exactly 500.

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I actually have 457 + 37 from today = 494

This makes me feel safe.

Coronavirus Has U.S. Cities Stretching to Monitor Self-Quarantined Americans

Quote:

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More than "5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states."

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Odd that the number of cases in U.S. is still at 15.

VaultingChemist said:

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This makes me feel safe.

Coronavirus Has U.S. Cities Stretching to Monitor Self-Quarantined Americans

Quote:

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More than "5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states."

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Odd that the number of cases in U.S. is still at 15.

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You can count on California to F things up out there in the name of the feels and Orange Man Bad.

Solid reporting from Peak Prosperity.

youtube blocked, can you bullet point any highlights?

VaultingChemist said:

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This makes me feel safe.

Coronavirus Has U.S. Cities Stretching to Monitor Self-Quarantined Americans

Quote:

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More than "5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states."

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Odd that the number of cases in U.S. is still at 15.

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If I get sick within the next few weeks, there is no way in hell I am going to the doctor's office. I'll take my chances at home recovering from an unknown illness vs. facing a random two to three week quarantine order from a "public health official" for a suspected CV case.



That being said, they've done a hell of a job keeping the reporting to a minimum on this in the US. Good and bad IMO, stops the panic but also gives a false sense of security.

I don't think it's a bioweapon, but that isn't what you asked. Just saying an economy-crippling but nonlethal bug could be extremely effective.

I mean, I'm kinda surprised the tinfoil hatters haven't thought that this may be a US bioweapon yet....

I watched last night making dinner. Here's what I remember.


- Data sets are getting better, more good information allows for better analysis
- Cruise ship is a tracking similar to what we are seeing from China via %s for confirmed and serious cases
- the virus looks to be aerosolized if evaluate the spread on the ship
- Still tracking exponential growth outside of China although the numbers are small right now. Need to track long term to see if is gone beyond control measures.
- Possible remedy from a malaria treatment that's readily available
- Kids not getting sick.
- Reported cases dropping in China but you can't trust the numbers
- WHO is useless and trying to play a political game vs informing the public
- North Korea has a good 6 min video that explains causes and how to avoid
- Italians are still down playing issues.

VaultingChemist said:

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This makes me feel safe.

Coronavirus Has U.S. Cities Stretching to Monitor Self-Quarantined Americans

Quote:

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More than "5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states."

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Odd that the number of cases in U.S. is still at 15.

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Self-quarantine is because there is the possibility that they may have been exposed to the virus, but there is nothing to say they were, nor that they have it. Most likely traveled from China recently even if they were not in areas where the virus is active, it is better safe than sorry.

As for the number of 15, they're not counting the 14 people from the cruise ship who tested positive, but are showing no symptoms. They would be added to the number if they end up getting sick. Also, it is likely that they're being retested (lab test rather than test kit) to make sure the initial results are not false positives.

Civil.Savage said:

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youtube blocked, can you bullet point any highlights?

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Sasappis said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Large study just released on 72,314 COVID-19 cases in China

Epidemiology Characteristics of COVID-19 Disease

Largest study to date, with a sample size of 72,314 cases.
81% of infections mild. 13.8% severe. 4.7% critical
Highest fatality rate is for people over 80, at 14.8%

Quote:

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There were no deaths among children aged up to 9, despite at least two cases of newborn babies infected through their mothers.

The team also found that up to age 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.

The fatality rate increases gradually with age. For people in their 40s, it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8.0%.

And men are more likely to die (2.8 percent) than women (1.7 percent).

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I am no expert, but if I was designing a bioweapon I would want it to be more severe

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Maybe it sticks around in some form after the initial symptoms wears off. What if something close to 100% of those infected over the age of 60 die over the next four decades or so? We could all be very screwed.

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Kids are spared

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Should be renamed Logan's Run Virus