Quote:

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A Coronavirus Quarantine in America Could Be a Giant Legal Mess
America's defense against epidemics is divided among more than 2,000 individual public-health departments, which makes implementing a national strategy very difficult.

Putting aside the question of whether such radical measures are even effective, China's government generally has much more authoritarian control over its population than the American government has over its. If a fast-spreading, deadly epidemic should threaten the United States, could the U.S. government do the same? The answer is yes: American government officials do have extensive authority to implement public-health measures to stop an epidemic, as the Americans on the Diamond Cruise ship in Yokohama, Japan, are now learning. According to The Washington Post, they were told on Saturday that following their two-week quarantine aboard the ship they would face an additional two-week quarantine back in the United States.

Government officials can prevent travel, require vaccinations, make people submit to medical exams, and commandeer private property. Even those who are not sick can be ordered into quarantineconfined to their home or another location with others who may also have been exposed to a virus.

When quarantine is medically justified, individual rights give way to the greater good. As the Court stated in Jacobson v. Massachusetts in 1905, "Upon the principle of self-defense, of paramount necessity, a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members." The constitutional structure tolerates such substantial restriction of liberties for at least a limited time in a true public-health emergency. That said, constitutional protections during quarantine do exist. For example, health officials must use the least restrictive means consistent with medical guidance, and the government must have good reason to believe you've been exposed.

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Something I thought about other than "don't touch your face" warning, is how many people in China wear contacts and shave?

Many of the dooms day apoplectic predictions on this thread have made the climate scientists of the 1970s look spot on accurate.

GE said:

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OldAg89er said:

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cbr said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Want to know something even SCARIER!!! ~80k dead from complications with the flu in 2017...JUST IN THE USA!

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Exactly. And the chinese government has quarantined over 70 million people, shut down huge chunks of their economy, and totally silenced all internet communications over this. And yet they couldnt give a flying **** about 80k per year of normal flu deaths and dont do anything about it.

They have the info. We dont. So what does that tell you about how many people they think are going to die?

---

Anyone who isn't preparing for SHTF doesn't understand the fact this is a biological weapon that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.

China is suppressing the numbers. Fellow researcher sent a WeChat pictture/message out showing bodies stacked.

There is a 14cday lag between between becoming infected and showing symptoms. Most infected are NOT being tested, thus the reported numbers in the news are low.

If full or at least partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

---

So...

---

So, those numbers above are actually understated.

Yes, understated. Do not confuse the fact that testing is ill targeted and is not widespread, and that China is lying through its teeth with the fact of how many are currently infected. As I have said a number of times: mortality rate with this virus is everything.

"The novel corona virus(2019nCoV)is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0,was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide an estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters,including the incubation period.Integrating these estimates and hig hresolution real time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus"

Once the real number of infections is known by the public - you are screwed if you are not prepared.

China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

The question is: what is the mortality rate?

The infection rate is pandemic. Is the mortality rate?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

OldAg89er said:

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GE said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

cbr said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

Want to know something even SCARIER!!! ~80k dead from complications with the flu in 2017...JUST IN THE USA!

---

Exactly. And the chinese government has quarantined over 70 million people, shut down huge chunks of their economy, and totally silenced all internet communications over this. And yet they couldnt give a flying **** about 80k per year of normal flu deaths and dont do anything about it.

They have the info. We dont. So what does that tell you about how many people they think are going to die?

---

Anyone who isn't preparing for SHTF doesn't understand the fact this is a biological weapon that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.

China is suppressing the numbers. Fellow researcher sent a WeChat pictture/message out showing bodies stacked.

There is a 14cday lag between between becoming infected and showing symptoms. Most infected are NOT being tested, thus the reported numbers in the news are low.

If full or at least partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

---

So...

---

So, those numbers above are actually understated.

Yes, understated. Do not confuse the fact that testing is ill targeted and is not widespread, and that China is lying through its teeth with the fact of how many are currently infected. As I have said a number of times: mortality rate with this virus is everything.

"The novel corona virus(2019nCoV)is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0,was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide an estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters,including the incubation period.Integrating these estimates and hig hresolution real time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus"

Once the real number of infections is known by the public - you are screwed if you are not prepared.

China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

The question is: what is the mortality rate?

The infection rate is pandemic. Is the mortality rate?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

---

How are you even posting from your underground bunker surrounded by 20ft of concrete?

OldAg89er said:

---

GE said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

cbr said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

Want to know something even SCARIER!!! ~80k dead from complications with the flu in 2017...JUST IN THE USA!

---

Exactly. And the chinese government has quarantined over 70 million people, shut down huge chunks of their economy, and totally silenced all internet communications over this. And yet they couldnt give a flying **** about 80k per year of normal flu deaths and dont do anything about it.

They have the info. We dont. So what does that tell you about how many people they think are going to die?

---

Anyone who isn't preparing for SHTF doesn't understand the fact this is a biological weapon that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.

China is suppressing the numbers. Fellow researcher sent a WeChat pictture/message out showing bodies stacked.

There is a 14cday lag between between becoming infected and showing symptoms. Most infected are NOT being tested, thus the reported numbers in the news are low.

If full or at least partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

---

So...

---

So, those numbers above are actually understated.

Yes, understated. Do not confuse the fact that testing is ill targeted and is not widespread, and that China is lying through its teeth with the fact of how many are currently infected. As I have said a number of times: mortality rate with this virus is everything.

"The novel corona virus(2019nCoV)is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0,was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide an estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters,including the incubation period.Integrating these estimates and hig hresolution real time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus"

Once the real number of infections is known by the public - you are screwed if you are not prepared.

China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

The question is: what is the mortality rate?

The infection rate is pandemic. Is the mortality rate?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

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You free this afternoon? Wanna go coffin shopping together?

claym711 said:

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Haha. It starts spreading here and y'all will absolutely pull your kids to school. Look how tough I am, I'll send my kids in to get nCoV, nbd.

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What Are you talking about? No one has said what you're implying

IrishTxAggie said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

GE said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

cbr said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

Want to know something even SCARIER!!! ~80k dead from complications with the flu in 2017...JUST IN THE USA!

---

Exactly. And the chinese government has quarantined over 70 million people, shut down huge chunks of their economy, and totally silenced all internet communications over this. And yet they couldnt give a flying **** about 80k per year of normal flu deaths and dont do anything about it.

They have the info. We dont. So what does that tell you about how many people they think are going to die?

---

Anyone who isn't preparing for SHTF doesn't understand the fact this is a biological weapon that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.

China is suppressing the numbers. Fellow researcher sent a WeChat pictture/message out showing bodies stacked.

There is a 14cday lag between between becoming infected and showing symptoms. Most infected are NOT being tested, thus the reported numbers in the news are low.

If full or at least partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

---

So...

---

So, those numbers above are actually understated.

Yes, understated. Do not confuse the fact that testing is ill targeted and is not widespread, and that China is lying through its teeth with the fact of how many are currently infected. As I have said a number of times: mortality rate with this virus is everything.

"The novel corona virus(2019nCoV)is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0,was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide an estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters,including the incubation period.Integrating these estimates and hig hresolution real time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus"

Once the real number of infections is known by the public - you are screwed if you are not prepared.

China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

The question is: what is the mortality rate?

The infection rate is pandemic. Is the mortality rate?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

---

How are you even posting from your underground bunker surrounded by 20ft of concrete?

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It's a fancy bunker

IrishTxAggie said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

GE said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

cbr said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

Want to know something even SCARIER!!! ~80k dead from complications with the flu in 2017...JUST IN THE USA!

---

Exactly. And the chinese government has quarantined over 70 million people, shut down huge chunks of their economy, and totally silenced all internet communications over this. And yet they couldnt give a flying **** about 80k per year of normal flu deaths and dont do anything about it.

They have the info. We dont. So what does that tell you about how many people they think are going to die?

---

Anyone who isn't preparing for SHTF doesn't understand the fact this is a biological weapon that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.

China is suppressing the numbers. Fellow researcher sent a WeChat pictture/message out showing bodies stacked.

There is a 14cday lag between between becoming infected and showing symptoms. Most infected are NOT being tested, thus the reported numbers in the news are low.

If full or at least partial quarantine is not implemented by February 5th, in major cities across the world, the pandemic will spread as follow (adjusted for higher R0 and higher index for infection spread chance), with the mention that the numbers will be the median ones :

Feb 6th :345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms
Feb 7th :690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms
Feb 8th : 1,435,000 / 15,600
Feb 9th : 2,980,000 / 27,456
Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100
Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100
Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600
Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600
Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000
Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

---

So...

---

So, those numbers above are actually understated.

Yes, understated. Do not confuse the fact that testing is ill targeted and is not widespread, and that China is lying through its teeth with the fact of how many are currently infected. As I have said a number of times: mortality rate with this virus is everything.

"The novel corona virus(2019nCoV)is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0,was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide an estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters,including the incubation period.Integrating these estimates and hig hresolution real time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus"

Once the real number of infections is known by the public - you are screwed if you are not prepared.

China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

The question is: what is the mortality rate?

The infection rate is pandemic. Is the mortality rate?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

---

How are you even posting from your underground bunker surrounded by 20ft of concrete?

---

Brazos WiFi......

I'm still so confused by the infection spots.

So you have this massive lockdown and then cruise ships driving around with people on them, but no major outbreaks in the US, Europe, etc (yet).

The whole thing is very odd. Would expect to see flare ups exponentially in Western countries from all the people who had flown out before quarantines.

yukmonkey said:

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I'm still so confused by the infection spots.

So you have this massive lockdown and then cruise ships driving around with people on them, but no major outbreaks in the US, Europe, etc (yet).

The whole thing is very odd. Would expect to see flare ups exponentially in Western countries from all the people who had flown out before quarantines.

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Hygiene and population density. That's why Norovirus moves through cruise ships like the first time you get Delhi Belly.

yukmonkey said:

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I'm still so confused by the infection spots.

So you have this massive lockdown and then cruise ships driving around with people on them, but no major outbreaks in the US, Europe, etc (yet).

The whole thing is very odd. Would expect to see flare ups exponentially in Western countries from all the people who had flown out before quarantines.

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Appears to be exponential......

JJMt said:

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That's a stretch of the word "exponential". The growth rate, world wide and in China, seems to be slowing, especially if you take the plague ship numbers out.

Does your chart include the ship numbers?

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I don't trust figures from China. The growth rate outside of China does include the ship numbers.

Quote:

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It's strange that there hasn't been hardly and spread, let alone exponential spread, in any western countries. Earlier, I thought that the UK was in big trouble. Maybe it's too early to start counting chickens, but it looks like the UK is controlling its cases pretty well. It even just released all but one of its confirmed cases, meaning that only 1 person in the UK is currently infected.

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UK is going to be real interesting. With a long incubation period, it may take a week for the cases to show up, if at all. I am hoping virus mutations make it less deadly.

yukmonkey said:

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I'm still so confused by the infection spots.

So you have this massive lockdown and then cruise ships driving around with people on them, but no major outbreaks in the US, Europe, etc (yet).

The whole thing is very odd. Would expect to see flare ups exponentially in Western countries from all the people who had flown out before quarantines.

---

I've been thinking the same thing. About 5M people left Wuhan before the quarantine on Jan 20. Its been 26 days and I would expect to see outbreaks in other countries but none besides Japan and Signapore.

Tormentos said:

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Checking in from Singapore....went to the beach yesterday...saw more hotties in a bikini then I've seen in a while.

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Who would of thought we could work in a positive hot zone reference in a thread about the virus?

True but I don't trust any Chinese numbers

JJMt said:

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Quote:

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I've been thinking the same thing. About 5M people left Wuhan before the quarantine on Jan 20. Its been 26 days and I would expect to see outbreaks in other countries but none besides Japan and Signapore.

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Even the Chinese provinces outside of Wuhan's aren't reporting the explosive growth of cases that its province has experienced.

Strange.

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The truth will probably be stranger than fiction once it eventually comes out. Let's just hope that this mostly stays confined within China.

Aggiebrewer said:

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It's in this thread

It's in other threads

Here: page 1

IrishTxAggie said:

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It's the flu. Know how many people died of the flu in the US last year; About 56,000... This is nothing. Just fear mongering.

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There are many posts saying a version of this

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I've only followed this thread, and both sides of this debate (as it were) seem to point to the other side with a "see, I told you so!" Very few are completely dismissing it just like very few think it will wipe out 10% of the world population. I see no good in recognizing either of those positions.

8 out of the 9 UK confirmed cases have already been released from hospital as of yesterday after testing negative twice.

The total number of people tested passed the 3000 mark today. There simply is no Wuhan like explosive growth anywhere outside of Wuhan.

Xi knew in early January....at least that's what this report says.

Clearing up some bad info over the weekend:

Vitamin C and cold medication will do nothing to prevent pneumonia from any source. Nothing is really proven to prevent pneumonia but malnutrition and immobility are significant risk factors as is smoking and asthma.

Norovirus is very common all the time. Top cause of viral gastroenteritis since we vaccinate for rotavirus now.

KorbinDallas said:

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That's 58 million people. How long can that last?

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What do you mean? They've finally achieved socialist utopia!

OldAg89er said:

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China did not quarantine over 100,000,000 people because this is a simple virus that makes your tummy upset. They did not shut down a major portion of their manufacturing because it makes you queasy. Entire apartment sky scrapers are not abandoned/empty because it's a mere store throat and coughing.

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5 million people fled Wuhan on Jan. 20 when there had only been 3 deaths attributed to the virus. Seems like Chinese society might be prone to overreacting. Maybe because nobody trusts each other, because communism.

KidDoc said:

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Clearing up some bad info over the weekend:

Vitamin C and cold medication will do nothing to prevent pneumonia from any source.

---

That's not what I said.

Taking vitamin C daily has been shown to reduce the duration and severity (but not the incidence) of the common cold. Assuming the mechanism is by "boosting the immune system" (as advertised in non-FDA-approved wording on the bottle), it is logical to infer that it would help with other viruses, too.

Quote:

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Nothing is really proven to prevent pneumonia but malnutrition and immobility are significant risk factors as is smoking and asthma.

---

Being in a weakened state due to having been sick recently is surely a risk factor. So minimizing your sickness before you get the coronavirus actually will improve your odds of not getting pneumonia.

I don't know the difference between pneumonia, pneumonitis, bronchitis, etc. But I know that allowing yourself to cough incessantly, without treating the symptom, can lead to inflammation (some sort of -itis).

And based on personal experience, I believe that aggressively medicating the early symptoms of a cold (e.g. runny nose with pseudoephedrine) can slow its spread, giving the immune system time to work before it spreads to other body systems (throat, lungs).

Talked with a friend at church this morning who works in the Med Center (Houston). She said her hospital has multiple people in quarantine under observation but no confirmed tests yet.

lunchbox said:

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Talked with a friend at church this morning who works in the Med Center (Houston). She said her hospital has multiple people in quarantine under observation but no confirmed tests yet.

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Bet they're all Asian

SchizoAg said:

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KidDoc said:

---

Clearing up some bad info over the weekend:

Vitamin C and cold medication will do nothing to prevent pneumonia from any source.

---

That's not what I said.

Taking vitamin C daily has been shown to reduce the duration and severity (but not the incidence) of the common cold. Assuming the mechanism is by "boosting the immune system" (as advertised in non-FDA-approved wording on the bottle), it is logical to infer that it would help with other viruses, too.

Quote:

---

Nothing is really proven to prevent pneumonia but malnutrition and immobility are significant risk factors as is smoking and asthma.

---

Being in a weakened state due to having been sick recently is surely a risk factor. So minimizing your sickness before you get the coronavirus actually will improve your odds of not getting pneumonia.

I don't know the difference between pneumonia, pneumonitis, bronchitis, etc. But I know that allowing yourself to cough incessantly, without treating the symptom, can lead to inflammation (some sort of -itis).

And based on personal experience, I believe that aggressively medicating the early symptoms of a cold (e.g. runny nose with pseudoephedrine) can slow its spread, giving the immune system time to work before it spreads to other body systems (throat, lungs).

---

Don't forget China has an extremely high incidence of the Hepatitis illnesses (due to chopsticks... Nowdays most restaurants use a common chopstick for food) and TB (In the past, everyone is vaccinated now)