Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Wow, that's a huge drop!

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Except for the steel factory. That's running 110%

Looks like this might be intresting. Xi is not known for being a reformer. Rather left leaning in the CCP:
http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/12/content_5477883.htm

Quote:

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The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to intensify the adjustment of macro policies and study and formulate corresponding policies and measures in response to the impact of the epidemic. It is necessary to make better use of the role of active fiscal policies, increase capital investment, and ensure the need for funds for epidemic prevention and control in various places.
[...]
The meeting emphasized that coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development is both a major war and a major examination. Party committees, governments, and leading cadres at all levels must shoulder their responsibilities and stand the test.

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Very rarely does the state media refer to it as a "major war". Usually is something like "major examination" or "strenuous perseverance through trials".

Separate post because separate party organ:
http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2020-02/13/content_5477980.htm

Quote:

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Recently, in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the production, transportation, and sales of agricultural products in some localities have been blocked, and the shortage of feed supply for some breeding companies has greatly affected the supply of residents' daily necessities. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to this.
[...]

• 1) Hold local authorities strictly accountable
• 2) Secure "vegetable basket" production capability
• 3) Secure routes of transport (infrastructure) for logistical throughput of foodstuffs
• 4) Immediately secure the supply chain (lit: "Selling chain") capability
• 5) Tighten restriction on live-food markets
• 6) Stabilize and improve supply network for industries dependent on agriculture
• 7) Make additional resources available for regarding necessary items required in agriculture and livestock (seed, feed, etc).
• 8) Strengthen inter-departmental cooperation.

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Illuminaggie said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Wow, that's a huge drop!

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Except for the steel factory. That's running 110%

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Throwing people in the smelter....


(sarcasm)

Been a while since someone has posted one of these updates.

lunchbox said:

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WTH is 'speed running'

Towns03 said:

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WTH is 'speed running'

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The faster version of stroll walking... aka "Devon Achane's highlights".

There are people who devote countless hours to try and beat video games in record times, aka speed running. Its an area of the gaming community that I find quite interesting, especially since a lot of the games they speed run are from when I was growing up.

Whether that individuals shirt is referring to gaming, can't say for sure

moses1084ever said:

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Refer to the handling of ***ushima by Tepco. Drip-drip-drip narrative control and LOTS of face saving exercises.

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Not following the comparison. TEPCO and Japanese officials definitely made some mistakes related to their proud and loyal culture. But if I recall correctly the response to the radioactive release was mostly measured, effective, and appropriate - especially in the midst of a catastrophic tsunami that killed thousands and crippled the infrastructure.???

Anybody have an idea about how much China is actually restricting movement within the country generally? Obviously certain areas are locked down, but is there an ability for most of the country to travel from province to province?

Wow! Apparently the r0 was as high as 8.18 in Wuhan at times. That's incredible.

5k posts in 3.5 wks, solid effort POL

JSKolache said:

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5k posts in 3.5 wks, solid effort POL

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Probably belongs in health and fitness tbh

This board can make anything political.

Man, they must be absolute slobs regarding health hygiene.

The problem is you can have 99 people being cautious and washing and cleaning and not going out in public if there is no need or a risk, and one selfish slob jackass can screw it up for everyone in a local geography.

I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that if the R0 is anywhere near ~7-8....hygiene at that point won't matter. Literally has to be floating around in a sustained manner....am I wrong?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Wow! Apparently the r0 was as high as 8.18 in Wuhan at times. That's incredible.statistics.

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Their conclusions:

Quote:

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We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06%

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They estimate in just Wuhan there are 983,006 infections which will result in 0.23% or 2261 deaths. I do not think that is accurate, but it is probably based on the data provided by China as well as cases in Japan.

Actually, if one thinks about it, a transmission rate that high early on should not be a shock.

-No one trying to avoid anyone who is sick because it is assumed to be just a cold or the flu
-People who are sick continue with normal activities because again, it doesn't appear to be serious
-No one taking extra precautions such as following all the usual advice on how to reduce the transmission of respiratory viruses
-Extreme population density which results in large crowds such as at markets or other places that were often visited daily or even multiple times a day
-Poor hygiene and the previously discussed Chinese habit of spitting everywhere
-Common for large numbers of family to be living together, in close quarters

For any virus that is easily transmissible, be it a rhinovirus, norovirus, influenza virus, or any strain of the coronavirus, this is nothing but a pool of gasoline waiting for the match.

Rapier108 said:

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Actually, if one thinks about it, a transmission rate that high early on should not be a shock.

-No one trying to avoid anyone who is sick because it is assumed to be just a cold or the flu
-People who are sick continue with normal activities because again, it doesn't appear to be serious
-No one taking extra precautions such as following all the usual advice on how to reduce the transmission of respiratory viruses
-Extreme population density which results in large crowds such as at markets or other places that were often visited daily or even multiple times a day
-Poor hygiene and the previously discussed Chinese habit of spitting everywhere
-Common for large numbers of family to be living together, in close quarters

For any virus that is easily transmissible, be it a rhinovirus, norovirus, influenza virus, or any strain of the coronavirus, this is nothing but a pool of gasoline waiting for the match.

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On paper (TexAgs), you statement (post) makes sense, however one needs to ask if any other epidemic has ever seen such a value?

Before R0 Values=4,5,6 would have been considered ludicrous. Has there ever been an R0=8 recorded?

If not, then I would suggest this be shocking.

scottimus said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Actually, if one thinks about it, a transmission rate that high early on should not be a shock.

-No one trying to avoid anyone who is sick because it is assumed to be just a cold or the flu
-People who are sick continue with normal activities because again, it doesn't appear to be serious
-No one taking extra precautions such as following all the usual advice on how to reduce the transmission of respiratory viruses
-Extreme population density which results in large crowds such as at markets or other places that were often visited daily or even multiple times a day
-Poor hygiene and the previously discussed Chinese habit of spitting everywhere
-Common for large numbers of family to be living together, in close quarters

For any virus that is easily transmissible, be it a rhinovirus, norovirus, influenza virus, or any strain of the coronavirus, this is nothing but a pool of gasoline waiting for the match.

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On paper (TexAgs), you statement (post) makes sense, however one needs to ask if any other epidemic has ever seen such a value?

Before R0 Values=4,5,6 would have been considered ludicrous. Has there ever been an R0=8 recorded?

If not, then I would suggest this be shocking.

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Unvaccinated mumps is like 10. Unvaccinated measles is like 16.

VaultingChemist said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Wow! Apparently the r0 was as high as 8.18 in Wuhan at times. That's incredible.statistics.

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Their conclusions:

Quote:

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We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06%

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They estimate in just Wuhan there are 983,006 infections which will result in 0.23% or 2261 deaths. I do not think that is accurate, but it is probably based on the data provided by China as well as cases in Japan.

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That death rate is substantially lower than other guesses in this thread.

Coronavirus victim attended conference in London with 250 people

I have to assume attendees at "The Bus Conference" are among the least ideal demographic to get exposed to a confirmed case from a containment perspective.

DirtyMikesBoys said:

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Coronavirus victim attended conference in London with 250 people

I have to assume attendees at "The Bus Conference" are among the least ideal demographic to get exposed to a confirmed case from a containment perspective.

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Great way to spread the virus. Victim took Uber to hospital, also.

Quote:

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One of the UK's nine confirmed coronavirus patients attended a conference in central London last week alongside 250 people before they were diagnosed, it emerged last night.
Organisers of the UK Bus Summit, which took place on Tuesday Feb 6, wrote to attendees yesterday under the instruction of Public Health England to inform them they may have come into contact with a person confirmed to have the virus.

In an email, delegates were told to stay indoors and avoid contact with others if they were symptomatic, according to the Financial Times

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VaultingChemist said:

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DirtyMikesBoys said:

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Coronavirus victim attended conference in London with 250 people

I have to assume attendees at "The Bus Conference" are among the least ideal demographic to get exposed to a confirmed case from a containment perspective.

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Great way to spread the virus. Victim took Uber to hospital, also.

Quote:

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One of the UK's nine confirmed coronavirus patients attended a conference in central London last week alongside 250 people before they were diagnosed, it emerged last night.
Organisers of the UK Bus Summit, which took place on Tuesday Feb 6, wrote to attendees yesterday under the instruction of Public Health England to inform them they may have come into contact with a person confirmed to have the virus.

In an email, delegates were told to stay indoors and avoid contact with others if they were symptomatic, according to the Financial Times

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Better than taking The Tube...

Another taxi driver infected by Diamond Princess passengers.

Quote:

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In an email, delegates were told to stay indoors and avoid contact with others if they were symptomatic, according to the Financial Times.

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So just die in place then? This is when govt run health care really pays off.

Quote:

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That death rate is substantially lower than other guesses in this thread.

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Given that figure;

Would the Chinese take such extreme measures for a virus that is just 2.5 times as deadly as the common flu? That doesn't make much sense.

VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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That death rate is substantially lower than other guesses in this thread.

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Given that figure;

Would the Chinese take such extreme measures for a virus that is just 2.5 times as deadly as the common flu? That doesn't make much sense.

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It makes perfect sense when you are dealing with a bunch of unknowns. Its not like the Chinese, or anyone else, knew death rates, infection rates, or anything else along those lines. You only find that stuff out months down the line.

VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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That death rate is substantially lower than other guesses in this thread.

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Given that figure;

Would the Chinese take such extreme measures for a virus that is just 2.5 times as deadly as the common flu? That doesn't make much sense.

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It does for the Chinese and how they typically handle things.

Shanked Punt said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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That death rate is substantially lower than other guesses in this thread.

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Given that figure;

Would the Chinese take such extreme measures for a virus that is just 2.5 times as deadly as the common flu? That doesn't make much sense.

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It makes perfect sense when you are dealing with a bunch of unknowns. Its not like the Chinese, or anyone else, knew death rates, infection rates, or anything else along those lines. You only find that stuff out months down the line.

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The first study published by Chinese scientists looked at 41 victims, of which 6 died, for a CFR of 15%. To obtain an IFR of 0.23%, it would require an additional 2500+ infections at the time. Possible, since there is asymptomatic transmission.

Quote:

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first 41 patients hospitalized from Dec 16 to Jan 2 in Wuhan, as well as a 15% death rate (six patients died).

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