PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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According to the Chinese government, confirmed cases have peaked and some would say that signifies that the worst in China is behind them. It's a very nice pyramid on the charts.

I really don't believe that and I wonder what will happen when people are fully back to work but we will see.

When we have a serious outbreak in another country I think you'll see real panic set in. Hong Kong and Singapore lead with 50 cases each right now and that's just not moving the needle with the Chinese daily #s going down.

yukmonkey said:

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Supposed to go to UK and Scotland at end of March. ******* it, was excited to go.

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You should wait and see what happens between now and then before assuming you won't be able to go.

Forgiven_Ag said:

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Should i be worried about my trip to Kilimanjaro in 2 weeks.

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Nairobi is beautiful this time of year.

New large scale study.

I would think that male smoking habits would account for the discrepancy between sexes.

Male deaths are 3.5 times the female deaths.

CFR for those over 60 is 5.3%.

Wow R0 approaching 4.

That was inline with some initial " crazy thoughts"

yukmonkey said:

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Supposed to go to UK and Scotland at end of March. ******* it, was excited to go.

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So sorry, it's really disappointing. I have a feeling my Italy trip in March is going to be cancelled. I travel quite a bit, but this one is one that is making me rethink that right now.

scottimus said:

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Wow R0 approaching 4.

That was inline with some initial " crazy thoughts"

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Very informative data. R0 from another study was 4.08. Los Alamos study R0 was 4.7 to 6.6.

23% of all cases were "severe" pneumonia.

Of the "mild" pneumonia cases, there were 11 deaths. There were 3 deaths in patients with no pneumonia.

VaultingChemist said:

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scottimus said:

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Wow R0 approaching 4.

That was inline with some initial " crazy thoughts"

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Very informative data. R0 from another study was 4.08. Los Alamos study R0 was 4.7 to 6.6.

23% of all cases were "severe".

Of the "mild" cases, there were 11 deaths. Not sure how that works.

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People <60 have a 0.5% chance of death.

>60, it's 4%.

Sorry Boomers.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Chinese officials have asked for the virus to stop being refereed to as the Wuhan coronavirus for sensitivity to the community. They have asked for it to be referred to as the Novel Pneumonia Coronavirus, or NPC.

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They can ask whatever they want, this is the Chinese Flu from here on out.

PJYoung said:

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PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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According to the Chinese government, confirmed cases have peaked and some would say that signifies that the worst in China is behind them. It's a very nice pyramid on the charts.

I really don't believe that and I wonder what will happen when people are fully back to work but we will see.

When we have a serious outbreak in another country I think you'll see real panic set in. Hong Kong and Singapore lead with 50 cases each right now and that's just not moving the needle with the Chinese daily #s going down.

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It sounds like they've changed the way they administer tests or interpret them a day or two ago. Now we have two subgroups, the old method and the new, and should not try and interpret trends between the two.

Damn. I need to lower my age.

VaultingChemist said:

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New large scale study.

I would think that male smoking habits would account for the discrepancy between sexes.

Male deaths are 3.5 times the female deaths.

CFR for those over 60 is 5.3%.

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Nice data to have. Everyone should take time to actually read the discussion part of the paper.

Quote:

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We estimated the overall adjusted CFR to be 3.06% for the 2019-nCoV, which is lower than those of SARS-CoV (9.2%) and MERS-CoV (34.4%). The limited number of discharges so far has impeded the use of any advanced method such as the competing risk model for estimating CFR.21 We restricted our analyses to patients with symptom onset at least 10 days before 26 January 2020 to reduce bias from unresolved final clinical outcomes. However, another serious source of bias is under-detection and under-reporting of mild cases especially those without pneumonia (4.5% in our data), which in turn could have substantially inflated the overall CFR estimate. Therefore, our estimate should be treated as an upper bound. The shortened delay from symptom onset to diagnosis over the epidemic course might have helped reducing CFR. Early diagnosis of elderly patients, especially males, with fever or respiratory symptoms before they progress to severe pneumonia is thus an important target for preventing fatal outcomes.

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VaultingChemist said:

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scottimus said:

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Wow R0 approaching 4.

That was inline with some initial " crazy thoughts"

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Very informative data. R0 from another study was 4.08. Los Alamos study R0 was 4.7 to 6.6.

23% of all cases were "severe" pneumonia.

Of the "mild" pneumonia cases, there were 11 deaths. There were 3 deaths in patients with no pneumonia.

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When was Los Alamos designated as the place to study pathogens. Seems to me a report out of Atlanta would be more relevant.

Nuclear Reactor =/= Nuclear Weapon

PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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The stock market is almost completely divorced from reality and is automated and operated by computers 100% of the time. Why anyone thinks the market is representative of reality on the ground is beyond me.

Holy F____!

We have been asking for real numbers... do we have them now?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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The stock market is almost completely divorced from reality and is automated and operated by computers 100% of the time. Why anyone thinks the market is representative of reality on the ground is beyond me.

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Huh?

KorbinDallas said:

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Holy F____!

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Cases increased by a third in one day! Hope that's a typo.

VaultingChemist said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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Holy F____!

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Cases increased by a third in one day! Hope that's a typo.

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Starting to see the actual real numbers.

KorbinDallas said:

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Holy F____!

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Mortality rates going to drop and total infections going to go up a lot since they're now adding in clinically diagnosed cases to the totals.

PearlJammin said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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The stock market is almost completely divorced from reality and is automated and operated by computers 100% of the time. Why anyone thinks the market is representative of reality on the ground is beyond me.

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Huh?

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Basically the stock market is not a good indication of how healthy the economy is or not.

As stated above "clinical diagnosis" so no test, but you tick all the boxes for the COVID-19.

KorbinDallas said:

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Holy F____!

We have been asking for real numbers... do we have them now?

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Whoa! Guess the Chinese finally decided to at least give numbers closer to reality.

VaultingChemist said:

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Cases increased by a third in one day! Hope that's a typo.

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It's reflected in the John's Hopkins dashboard -

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Also not saying the W.H.O. is the bastion of truth and transparency, but its a lot harder to fake things once you let others in to help.

Love we have the biggest ocean separating us and them

PJYoung said:

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PearlJammin said:

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What's really odd is the stock market is shrugging this off like its no big deal. China's actions suggest otherwise and the economy is definitely going to feel the effects of an extended Chinese shutdown. What gives?

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According to the Chinese government, confirmed cases have peaked and some would say that signifies that the worst in China is behind them. It's a very nice pyramid on the charts.

I really don't believe that and I wonder what will happen when people are fully back to work but we will see.

When we have a serious outbreak in another country I think you'll see real panic set in. Hong Kong and Singapore lead with 50 cases each right now and that's just not moving the needle with the Chinese daily #s going down.

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Spoke too soon

KorbinDallas said:

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As stated above "clinical diagnosis" so no test, but you tick all the boxes for the COVID-19.

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Yep. Nothing alarming about this in my mind.

I'm not sure why this is so surprising. If you start classifying a diagnosis just by clinical signs w/o testing all of a sudden on day, of course the numbers are going to jump. r/coronoavirus is flipping out of course. From a transmission standpoint this isn't great news but regarding mortality, its going to put the number more in line with what the rest of the world has seen so far and not 30-50x flu mortality rates that have been reported so far in China

We have dodgy data made even dodgier when the standard of what constitutes a new case changes.

Forum Troll said:

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I'm not sure why this is so surprising. If you start classifying a diagnosis just by clinical signs w/o testing all of a sudden on day, of course the numbers are going to jump. r/coronoavirus is flipping out of course. From a transmission standpoint this isn't great news but regarding mortality, its going to put the number more in line with what the rest of the world has seen so far and not 30-50x flu mortality rates that have been reported so far in China

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It's surprising when the numbers that we have come accustomed to watching change by 30%. The constant changing of how cases are defined makes it difficult to gauge what's going on with the limited amount of information we have access to. The definition change does help to explain the increase, but it's obviously abrupt and a major change.

Quote:

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The definition change does help to explain the increase, but it's obviously abrupt and a major change.

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The rest of the govts around the world called China on their Bull *****....told them to report more accurately. ChiComms are making up for lost ground today.

This thread.

The doomsdayers say told ya so.

The deniers say 14k new cases, nbd.

VaultingChemist said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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Holy F____!

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Cases increased by a third in one day! Hope that's a typo.

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I think this is a lot like election results - the votes are out there they just haven't been reported. The cases are out there, they just haven't come in from various regions. That's assuming they are being reported accurately in the first place. Those following this are assuming there's 5x more than have been reported - if that number gets reported, was there a sudden spike in infected People or were they out there all along and just got counted.