Talking about people outside of China catching it.

"The detection of these small number of cases could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire. But for now it is only a spark. Our objective remains containment. We call on all countries to use the window of opportunity we have to prevent a bigger fire."

Edit to add-- this was the WHO conference today.

titan said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Quote:

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XYup, It's airborne...

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All respiratory viruses are "airborne." They're spread by the droplets a person expels when they sneeze or cough. This is neither news nor noteworthy.

It is not floating free in the air with the ability to travel across a city and infect someone on the other side.

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That is a very important distinction. I believe the term for the spread by droplets is when you hear them you aerosolized -- as in an aerosol can spray. I am not entirely sure, but I don't think they use the word aerosolized for free-floating airborne nightmare.

However, when people hear airborne, the layman thinks either of a gas attack in war, or of a Bond movie where everyone just drops in mid-walk because the air has been made poisoned.

---

there are multiple reports of it doing exactly that - airborne free on the wind for hours and miles. Speculation is this is why the gargantuan spraying effort.

What other known viruses just float on the wind for miles? I'm not aware of any.

cbr said:

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titan said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Quote:

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XYup, It's airborne...

---

All respiratory viruses are "airborne." They're spread by the droplets a person expels when they sneeze or cough. This is neither news nor noteworthy.

It is not floating free in the air with the ability to travel across a city and infect someone on the other side.

---

That is a very important distinction. I believe the term for the spread by droplets is when you hear them you aerosolized -- as in an aerosol can spray. I am not entirely sure, but I don't think they use the word aerosolized for free-floating airborne nightmare.

However, when people hear airborne, the layman thinks either of a gas attack in war, or of a Bond movie where everyone just drops in mid-walk because the air has been made poisoned.

---

there are multiple reports of it doing exactly that - airborne free on the wind for hours and miles. Speculation is this is why the gargantuan spraying effort.

---

That seems too extreme a scenario, but perhaps. However, it doesn't fit with the visual of the cruise ship docked right alongside an open wharf at Yokohama and reporters standing close to the ship. A threat like that would warrant anchoring far out into Sagami Bay, and approached only by barges. And if really like you say, would mean all return travel would have to be shut down for a month or two to take proper precautions. No matter how damaging.

cbr said:

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titan said:

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Rapier108 said:

---

Quote:

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XYup, It's airborne...

---

All respiratory viruses are "airborne." They're spread by the droplets a person expels when they sneeze or cough. This is neither news nor noteworthy.

It is not floating free in the air with the ability to travel across a city and infect someone on the other side.

---

That is a very important distinction. I believe the term for the spread by droplets is when you hear them you aerosolized -- as in an aerosol can spray. I am not entirely sure, but I don't think they use the word aerosolized for free-floating airborne nightmare.

However, when people hear airborne, the layman thinks either of a gas attack in war, or of a Bond movie where everyone just drops in mid-walk because the air has been made poisoned.

---

there are multiple reports of it doing exactly that - airborne free on the wind for hours and miles. Speculation is this is why the gargantuan spraying effort.

---

And just a few weeks ago you were claiming there was proof it was a Soviet Biopreparat weapon with a 100% kill rate.

Sorry, you lost any credibility long ago.

We need to shut down all flights from Singapore, too.

I have not been following this thread closely, so apologies if these questions have been answered previously. Can someone who has been following this issue closely offer some perspective on the following:

1) There are videos of doors being welded shut and bodies being placed in hazmat bags. This seems very extreme for a virus that although very contagious is said to cause flu like symptoms. Seems as though there's more to this story than is being shared.

2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

3) What is treatment?

Thanks in advance. I'll hang up and listen.

Quote:

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2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

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At its worst, it causes a very severe pneumonia, which kills people.

JJMt said:

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OldArmy71 said:

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We need to shut down all flights from Singapore, too.

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Probably correct.

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PRC, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan.

Possibly Japan depending upon how well they handle the cruise ship situation.

Rapier108 said:

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cbr said:

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titan said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Quote:

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XYup, It's airborne...

---

All respiratory viruses are "airborne." They're spread by the droplets a person expels when they sneeze or cough. This is neither news nor noteworthy.

It is not floating free in the air with the ability to travel across a city and infect someone on the other side.

---

That is a very important distinction. I believe the term for the spread by droplets is when you hear them you aerosolized -- as in an aerosol can spray. I am not entirely sure, but I don't think they use the word aerosolized for free-floating airborne nightmare.

However, when people hear airborne, the layman thinks either of a gas attack in war, or of a Bond movie where everyone just drops in mid-walk because the air has been made poisoned.

---

there are multiple reports of it doing exactly that - airborne free on the wind for hours and miles. Speculation is this is why the gargantuan spraying effort.

---

And just a few weeks ago you were claiming there was proof it was a Soviet Biopreparat weapon with a 100% kill rate.

Sorry, you lost any credibility long ago.

---

You find where i said that and post it.

I provided infomation by which on might suspect it came from a biolab. Which is still very possible. But i also said i didnt personally yet think this was such a virus.

I also provided information on the worst case scenario, about the history of bioprepparat, i posted it not to make drama, but rather because *******s like you were saying irresponsibly stupid things. And ignorantly spreading disinformation that 'no such things existed' and 'no way its a bio lab disease, its just the flu'

Then i posted a link to a bootleg video from china saying this virus had a second, deadly kick, which was fatal. It did not reference biopreparat or any bio research but that characteristic fit the profile of one of alibeck's strains. Which only people who have read the history or made it would know about.

That kind of danger also explains china's actions better than the official information.

That was a interesting piece of information, that any rational person would want to know. It actually seems even more likely now that this came from a lab. But that kind of 2 stage highly lethal virus seems even more unlikely now, but has certainly not yet been completely ruled out.

Anyway, Im about sick of ignorant, irresponsible people with bad attitudes throwing insults around here.

As i said before, *******s like you will be the first ones screaming like *****es and cutting in line in front of women and children if you actually do get sick. Look yourself in the mirror and try to be better.

More from the WHO Conference:
just sort of summarized,

** Several labs have isolated the live virus which will be used for research on vaccines, antibodies, etc.
** Priorities for WHO in China:

• learn about the virus and the nature of the public health response
• learn about the origin of the virus
• learn about the severities of the disease
• a collaboration of ideas between scientists that is on going, in that they have worked together for many years and relationships are already established

** Countries without diagnostic capabilities will struggle.

• they have 168 labs worldwide that can diagnosis
• kits sent to Africa along with training
• 150k tests going to 80 labs

**Will Taiwan be included

• personally I do feel that they sort of dodged this question- lots of scientists including Taiwanese scientists will be exchanging ideas both by telephone and online means

*** A reporter asked about the mortality rate and timeline to death, with 2 weeks from transmission to symptoms being taken into account. Response was

• 80% (her french accent was too hard to catch- I *think* she was saying 80% are hospitalized).
• 15% are severe cases
• 3-5% need ICU
• underlying conditions will cause a longer recovery, new technology like ECMO is something they didn't have for SARS but have for this.

The Scottish sounding guy then chimed in this:

• 90-100% require supplemental Oxygen
• 20-25% require ICU
• 5-10% require mechanical ventilation
• ALL of the above means a HUGE demand on a system, and there is sometimes a lag that results in deaths.
• **A weaker health system could be worse in terms of what they could offer those suffering.

CSTXAg92 said:

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I have not been following this thread closely, so apologies if these questions have been answered previously. Can someone who has been following this issue closely offer some perspective on the following:

1) There are videos of doors being welded shut and bodies being placed in hazmat bags. This seems very extreme for a virus that although very contagious is said to cause flu like symptoms. Seems as though there's more to this story than is being shared.

2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

4) What is treatment?

Thanks in advance. I'll hang up and listen.

---

I'll take a stab at this...

1) Agreed - most are focusing on the actions from China and paying less attention to their numbers, especially after they just adjusted the definition of "confirmed infection". Now, even if your test comes back positive, you aren't confirmed unless you also have symptoms.

2) Primary reaction is pneumonia and there have been some reports of cardiac incidents.

3) This is the million dollar question. There have been all sorts of reports that it affects Asians differently than other races, but I haven't seen concrete confirmation. Most assume that the western health systems are better suited to handle it, but can be overrun when the ICUs start to fill up (see #4 below)

4) I saw today that 90-100% require supplemental O2 and somewhere around 15-25% require ICU. Antivirals, rest, fluids, etc. while you wait it out.

yukmonkey said:

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What other known viruses just float on the wind for miles? I'm not aware of any.

---

..there was a reported airborne virus some years ago in Egypt.....wiped out a first generation of boys.

OldArmy71 said:

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Quote:

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2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

---

At its worst, it causes a very severe pneumonia, which kills people.

---

Thank you OldArmy71.

lunchbox said:

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CSTXAg92 said:

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I have not been following this thread closely, so apologies if these questions have been answered previously. Can someone who has been following this issue closely offer some perspective on the following:

1) There are videos of doors being welded shut and bodies being placed in hazmat bags. This seems very extreme for a virus that although very contagious is said to cause flu like symptoms. Seems as though there's more to this story than is being shared.

2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

4) What is treatment?

Thanks in advance. I'll hang up and listen.

---

I'll take a stab at this...

1) Agreed - most are focusing on the actions from China and paying less attention to their numbers, especially after they just adjusted the definition of "confirmed infection". Now, even if your test comes back positive, you aren't confirmed unless you also have symptoms.

2) Primary reaction is pneumonia and there have been some reports of cardiac incidents.

3) This is the million dollar question. There have been all sorts of reports that it affects Asians differently than other races, but I haven't seen concrete confirmation. Most assume that the western health systems are better suited to handle it, but can be overrun when the ICUs start to fill up (see #4 below)

4) I saw today that 90-100% require supplemental O2 and somewhere around 15-25% require ICU. Antivirals, rest, fluids, etc. while you wait it out.

---

Thank you lunchbox.

Quote:

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3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

---

About 60% of males older than 25 in China are smokers, including doctors. The virus is particularly lethal to those with damaged lungs.

JJMt said:

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Quote:

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especially after they just adjusted the definition of "confirmed infection".

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As far as I know, there's still no confirmation on this other than one anonymous tweet. If there is confirmation, please advise.

Keep in mind that tweets in Chinese don't constitute evidence. There are lots of Chinese people out there who (rightfully) hate the CCP and will say and do anything to embarrass it.

---

I'm going off this twitter thread from a reporter. Read more than the first one in the thread.

VaultingChemist said:

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Quote:

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3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

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About 60% of males older than 25 in China are smokers, including doctors. The virus is particularly lethal to those with damaged lungs.

---

Interesting observation. Ty VaultingChemist.

Quote:

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2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

---

I'm not a doctor. Don't have any direct knowledge. Only discussed with a nurse practitioner friend. We came up with possible reasons (as have others). Pure speculation follows.


It's a viral infection that causes pneumonia. The Chinese are particularly vulnerable due to 1) extremely bad indoor and outdoor air quality throughout the country 2) Chinese males are hardcore smokers and 3) poor nutrition. Bad lungs = hard time breathing. Dying of low oxygen in blood stream/ suffocation/hypoxia.

Indoor air quality due to smoking and cooking w oils with poor air exchange.
Outdoor air quality due to coal fired power plants and industrial operations without regulations.


I could be completely wrong. Do your own research.

basketaggie said:

---

More from the WHO Conference:
just sort of summarized,

** Several labs have isolated the live virus which will be used for research on vaccines, antibodies, etc.
** Priorities for WHO in China:

• learn about the virus and the nature of the public health response
• learn about the origin of the virus
• learn about the severities of the disease
• a collaboration of ideas between scientists that is on going, in that they have worked together for many years and relationships are already established

** Countries without diagnostic capabilities will struggle.

• they have 168 labs worldwide that can diagnosis
• kits sent to Africa along with training
• 150k tests going to 80 labs

**Will Taiwan be included

• personally I do feel that they sort of dodged this question- lots of scientists including Taiwanese scientists will be exchanging ideas both by telephone and online means

*** A reporter asked about the mortality rate and timeline to death, with 2 weeks from transmission to symptoms being taken into account. Response was

• 80% (her french accent was too hard to catch- I *think* she was saying 80% are hospitalized).
• 15% are severe cases
• 3-5% need ICU
• underlying conditions will cause a longer recovery, new technology like ECMO is something they didn't have for SARS but have for this.

The Scottish sounding guy then chimed in this:

• 90-100% require supplemental Oxygen
• 20-25% require ICU
• 5-10% require mechanical ventilation
• ALL of the above means a HUGE demand on a system, and there is sometimes a lag that results in deaths.
• **A weaker health system could be worse in terms of what they could offer those suffering.

---

The severe case percentage and the requirements for that are why China has been overwhelmed. 100% of the severe cases needing supplemental oxygen of a virus that is highly contagious and has 15% severe cases is brutal. This would turn ICUs into death traps very quickly, especially since it's airborne. Combine this with the insane incubation periods and yeah it's a major issue since it's very likely ICUs could get hit all at once.

CSTXAg92 said:

---

I have not been following this thread closely, so apologies if these questions have been answered previously. Can someone who has been following this issue closely offer some perspective on the following:

1) There are videos of doors being welded shut and bodies being placed in hazmat bags. This seems very extreme for a virus that although very contagious is said to cause flu like symptoms. Seems as though there's more to this story than is being shared.

2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

3) Is the virus lethal over there b/c they have poor/inadequate healthcare, or would it be equally lethal in the U.S?

3) What is treatment?

Thanks in advance. I'll hang up and listen.

---

In regards to #2
This paper was released.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1.full.pdf
It's by Chinese expert Zhong Nan-Shan

A good breakdown is done by reporter William Yang @ WilliamYang120 on twitter

During hospital admission, the most common complication was pneumonia (79.1%), then is ARDS (3.37%) and shock (1%).

Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

---

I'm not a doctor. Don't have any direct knowledge. Only discussed with a nurse practitioner friend. We came up with possible reasons (as have others). Pure speculation follows.


It's a viral infection that causes pneumonia. The Chinese are particularly vulnerable due to 1) extremely bad indoor and outdoor air quality throughout the country 2) Chinese males are hardcore smokers and 3) poor nutrition. Bad lungs = hard time breathing. Dying of low oxygen in blood stream/ suffocation/hypoxia.

Indoor air quality due to smoking and cooking w oils with poor air exchange.
Outdoor air quality due to coal fired power plants and industrial operations without regulations.


I could be completely wrong. Do your own research.

---

Thanks. All that makes sense when you consider the massive pollution there. What remains very concerning is the images and videos of doors being welded shut and officials in hazmat suits. To me, those actions reflect a much greater concern than a pneumonia like sickness.

Since I'm a capitalist, anyone know any publicly traded companies that make 02 tanks?

One group that I'm in is saying that's because China is buying right now, while others are watching. Thus the markets arent necessarily hurting because of it....yet.

It doesnt taks a Nobel prize in economics to see that if the #2 economy in the world is moving toward lockdown, how that influences 1) chinese demands, 2) chinese supplies, 3) chinese manufacturing, 4) exports.

Just spent a few mins looking for another source and didn't find one.

Did you read the whole thread where he showed the screenshot came from a "Prevention and Control Plan" pdf located on the Chinese govt website?

Quote:

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80% (her french accent was too hard to catch- I *think* she was saying 80% are hospitalized).15% are severe cases3-5% need ICUunderlying conditions will cause a longer recovery, new technology like ECMO is something they didn't have for SARS but have for this.

---

I think the 80% number was the percentage of "mild" cases which did not require a hospital stay.

CSTXAg92 said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

Quote:

---

2) Why is the virus lethal? What does it actually do? Airway restriction? Internal bleeding? Organ failure?

---

I'm not a doctor. Don't have any direct knowledge. Only discussed with a nurse practitioner friend. We came up with possible reasons (as have others). Pure speculation follows.


It's a viral infection that causes pneumonia. The Chinese are particularly vulnerable due to 1) extremely bad indoor and outdoor air quality throughout the country 2) Chinese males are hardcore smokers and 3) poor nutrition. Bad lungs = hard time breathing. Dying of low oxygen in blood stream/ suffocation/hypoxia.

Indoor air quality due to smoking and cooking w oils with poor air exchange.
Outdoor air quality due to coal fired power plants and industrial operations without regulations.


I could be completely wrong. Do your own research.

---

Thanks. All that makes sense when you consider the massive pollution there. What remains very concerning is the images and videos of doors being welded shut and officials in hazmat suits. To me, those actions reflect a much greater concern than a pneumonia like sickness.

---

While it doesnt appear that this virus is extremely lethal (although it's certainly killing folks), given the significant rate of infections which require advanced care it's easy to see how it could overwhelm medical treatment facilities if it gets out of control.