Excessive employee absence or quarantines hardly seem normal to me.

I am hopeful that the numbers are not as bad as it appears.

And if they are, that China bites the bullet here and eradicates it.

JJMt said:

---

Epidemiologist warns lawmakers: US can't keep coronavirus 'out of our border'

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/epidemiologist-warns-lawmakers-us-cant-keep-coronavirus-out-of-our-border.html

Quote:

---

U.S. travel restrictions implemented in recent days to keep a fast-moving virus that has crippled much of China from spreading across America won't work, a top epidemiologist told U.S. lawmakers Wednesday.

"I have never seen instances where that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale," epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Center for Health Security, testified before the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee. Respiratory viruses, like the one that's sickened more than 24,300 across the globe and killed at least 490 in China, "they just move quickly.

---

Quote:

---

In China, physicians are looking for sick people, while other countries are looking for people from China. Somewhere in between, infected people are going to be missed, she said.

"For that, and other reasons, I do not believe we're going to be able to keep the virus out of our border," she said, adding that a bigger concern is how the travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines are diverting resources away from fighting the virus. One public health department has 31 health-care workers monitoring two quarantined patients 24 hours a day, she said. "As this epidemic grows, that's not likely to scale," she said.

---

---

If we had a WALL it would.

KorbinDallas said:

---

Here is the coronavirus update with information on Possible drugs to cure. Says we won't have true studies till April.

---

Great 10 minute video. Well worth the time. Thanks for posting that.

k2aggie07 said:

---

Right, but he mentioned they've been working 24/7 since Jan 28. That's probably not normal.

---

Rudimentary google search shows that on average about 241 people per day would be dying in a city of that size setting the virus aside.

GE said:

---

k2aggie07 said:

---

Right, but he mentioned they've been working 24/7 since Jan 28. That's probably not normal.

---

Rudimentary google search shows that on average about 241 people per day would be dying in a city of that size setting the virus aside.

---

Also....
I'm betting it has more than 1 or 2 crematorium.

So multiply the numbers.

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

US case #12

https://nypost.com/2020/02/05/wisconsin-coronavirus-case-brings-total-infected-in-us-to-12/

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

A quick Google shows that there are 7 in Wuhan. Definitely above average deaths but possibly not the 5000 a day above normal run of the mill deaths

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

You might actually read the article before posting your own made-up assumptions.

The Epoch Times article that was quoted in the Washington Examiner piece specifically said 3 crematoriums. One that has been dedicated to confirmed cases, the other 2 designated for suspected cases.

ETA - link to article posted below

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

Remember only Ethnic minorities and some rural areas allow for burial. All urban dwellers must be cremated.

Here is the actual article which was posted earlier in the thread.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/funeral-home-worker-in-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-we-are-working-24-7-to-cremate-bodies_3227432.html

"Wuhan has three main funeral homes in the downtown area, which are equipped with crematoriums. While cremation is a common burial practice in China, in a notice issued on Feb. 1, China's National Health Commission said that people who have died from the virus can't be buried and their bodies should be cremated immediately.

Because of the coronavirus outbreak, Wuhan's Civil Affairs Bureau designated the Hankou Funeral Home to deal with the bodies of those who were diagnosed and died of the virus, according to state-run media. In addition, the Wuchang Funeral Home and Qingshan Funeral Home were designated to attend to those who died from severe pneumonia, or who were suspected coronavirus cases and died."

Sine poena nulla lex.

Tx-Ag2010 said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

A quick Google shows that there are 7 in Wuhan. Definitely above average deaths but possibly not the 5000 a day above normal run of the mill deaths

---

A quick search shows the mortality rate in China for 2018 was 7.13 per 1000 people. If you extrapolate that rate to a city of 11 million people then you have an average of approximately 78k out of that 11 million who would die every year. If you divide 78k/365 days, you get an average of around 214 deaths a day. If there are 7 crematoriums in the city they would each handle around 30 bodies a day. Now there might be more outside the city as that seems like a small number for a city that size. Do I'll say 10 crematoriums and round down each normally would handle 21 a day.

So if you go with 10 and each is handling 100 bodies a day that's 1000 deaths a day and nearly 800 more than normal a day.

Zemira said:

---

Tx-Ag2010 said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

A quick Google shows that there are 7 in Wuhan. Definitely above average deaths but possibly not the 5000 a day above normal run of the mill deaths

---

A quick search shows the mortality rate in China for 2018 was 7.13 per 1000 people. If you extrapolate that rate to a city of 11 million people then you have an average of approximately 78k out of that 11 million who would die every year. If you divide 78k/365 days, you get an average of around 214 deaths a day. If there are 7 crematoriums in the city they would each handle around 30 bodies a day. Now there might be more outside the city as that seems like a small number for a city that size. Do I'll say 10 crematoriums and round down each normally would handle 21 a day.

So if you go with 10 and each is handling 100 bodies a day that's 1000 deaths a day and nearly 800 more than normal a day.

---

The article said that these 3 are the ones designated for suspected and confirmed coronavirus victims, so they are funneling everybody they think has it to only these 3, right? So that changes the math to 240 more than a normal day, not 800. I imagine its actually 300 or so, since I doubt these 3 crematoria would still be open for just the normal business at all.

daggertx said:

---

http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2020/02-04/9078187.shtml

he 28-year-old deputy team leader of the Pharmacy Group of the Maji Health Center in Donghu Town,

In the fight against the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection, he died suddenly in the dormitory of the hospital on February 3 due to continuous overload work and overwork.

Sudden cardiac death caused by overwork and death due to work. At present, related follow-up work is in progress.

---

IT happens a lot in China randomly, mostly male, 18-30. Hell, I have to worry about it and I live in the US.
It's called SADS and that stuff is pretty common in newspapers in China, first noticed in SE Asia during vietnam.

Probably something genetic that Asian males are predisposed to like Europeans to skin cancer and Jewish to tay-sachs. It's a bit of an over-generalization but you get the point.

JJxvi said:

---

Zemira said:

---

Tx-Ag2010 said:

---

OldAg89er said:

---

fightingfarmer09 said:

---

How many people in a city of 11 million die every day? They are not sorting out the cause of death first. Now that everyone must immediately be cremated how does that impact the capacity?

Not saying it's nothing, but let's make sure we are thinking critically.

---

That was "a worker" at "a crematorium" in Wuhan needs 100 body bags a day. How many crematoriums in a city of 11 million?

Perhaps there are 50, and the one he works at is average.

So, a linear approximation of 50 x 100 = 5,000 body bags a day.

---

A quick Google shows that there are 7 in Wuhan. Definitely above average deaths but possibly not the 5000 a day above normal run of the mill deaths

---

A quick search shows the mortality rate in China for 2018 was 7.13 per 1000 people. If you extrapolate that rate to a city of 11 million people then you have an average of approximately 78k out of that 11 million who would die every year. If you divide 78k/365 days, you get an average of around 214 deaths a day. If there are 7 crematoriums in the city they would each handle around 30 bodies a day. Now there might be more outside the city as that seems like a small number for a city that size. Do I'll say 10 crematoriums and round down each normally would handle 21 a day.

So if you go with 10 and each is handling 100 bodies a day that's 1000 deaths a day and nearly 800 more than normal a day.

---

The article said that these 3 are the ones designated for suspected and confirmed coronavirus victims, so they are funneling everybody they think has it to only these 3, right? So that changes the math to 240 more than a normal day, not 800.

---

Yeah missed it was only those 3. So 240 a day is still much higher than the government provided numbers coming out of China, but not the plague is upon us and we are all gonna die crowd numbers.

Shanked Punt said:

---

The Epoch Times is a far right wing newspaper. I wouldn't believe anything they print until some other reputable source can corroborate it. So, this whole deal of crematoriums running non stop could simply be made up.

---

It is anti-communist in nature like a good fightin' Texas Aggie! It is not "far right!"

Zemira,

You are forgetting the possibility they are adding any death that appears to be from the flu, pneumonia, old age as all "possible". Could be possible since they can't test them all they are going the overly cautious route.

Yes realize that "other" causes aren't included bin the official China numbers. Yet somehow say the virus is indirectly causing an additional 1500 deaths in Wuhan a week, that's something that needs to be known and considered.

True. We do not know the true death numbers of this. I am watching the news for any firings/resignations of local party leaders... That would indicate the party response is being hampered by infighting and a large degree of political maneuvering.

Likely it will turn into another 6/4 incident and the number will be sealed into the CCP archives for only the next paramount leader.

Edit: As far as I know CAAC (Think Chinese FAA) grounded most flights in/out of China silently a few days ago. Mother is stuck there and father is staying there since he is responsible for 40 odd people and their jobs.

erudite said:

---

True. We do not know the true death numbers of this. I am watching the news for any firings/resignations of local party leaders... That would indicate the party response is being hampered by infighting and a large degree of political maneuvering.

Likely it will turn into another 6/4 incident and the number will be sealed into the CCP archives for only the next paramount leader.

Edit: As far as I know CAAC (Think Chinese FAA) grounded most flights in/out of China silently a few days ago. Mother is stuck there and father is staying there since he is responsible for 40 odd people and their jobs.

---

Hope your family stays well during this ordeal. They aren't in a quarantined area correct?

Beijing is semi-quarantined. Only one person allowed out each day right now.

Talking to family, most areas are restricted to one person per a household for essential needs. A few people I know are above that because they are healthcare workers if not researchers working at this right now.

Hopefully the snow in Beijing slows down disease progression.

... I should ask my old teachers at the school for US expats how they are doing.

Anyone reminded of 28 days later....

Would love to see 30 day time lapse of the first bridge for perspective on how abruptly it came to a hault.

Sine poena nulla lex.

Another 3,000+ "Official" confirmed cases for today.

New testing facility capable of 10,000 tests per day to open in Wuhan. Wonder how the "official" numbers will change, or will they stay at 3,000 or so per day?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-04/china-will-soon-find-out-if-mass-quarantine-worked-virus-update

http://www.caac.gov.cn/XWZX/MHYW/202002/t20200205_200660.html

They are flying in doctors by the jetload from the rest of China.

Non google translated version:
Feb 4-5,
CAAC has utilized it's authority to order flights of carriers including China air, East China, South China air et al. to conduct the flight of 14 planes for emergency transport of medical personnel to Wuhan. In total 15 groups with 1,418 people were flown in.
According to emergency directives of (I presume the CCDC), personel from Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hebei, Beijing, Guizhou, Henan, Qinghai, Jiling, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Xinjiang Border construction troops have been sent.

In total thirteen domestic airlines have participated in this program, and completed 59 sorties, moved 7320 personnel, and 276 tons of materials.

KorbinDallas said:

---

New testing facility capable of 10,000 tests per day to open in Wuhan. Wonder how the "official" numbers will change, or will they stay at 3,000 or so per day?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-04/china-will-soon-find-out-if-mass-quarantine-worked-virus-update

---

Personal Opinion: No.
IT worked in SARS because not many people had cars then.

Now many people have cars like US (not there but getting there). So much harder to trace and track unless you are dumb enough to sleep at a hotel and most Chinese know to avoid that.

If you are wondering why in China if you sleep in a hotel you must hand your SS Card over and it is automatically registered to the local precinct electronically..